Many argue that Tony Dungy should chase after the perfect season because the Colts could do something that would be remembered for decades to come.  The problem is that they might be remembered for all the wrong reasons. 

The most common argument for pursuing the perfect season is that it is a rare chance to do something truly special.  Winning a Super Bowl is great, but, hey, it happens every year.   

But these people don't address the most important issue - how much are you willing to risk for the perfect season?  Are you willing to reduce your chances of winning a championship by five percent?  10 percent?  15 percent?

Well, if you want a perfect season, you better be willing to risk a lot more than that (and Dungy seems the type that is willing to increase his risk by exactly zero percent).  The Colts have two indispensable players - Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James.  An injury to one of them, and the Colts will be remembered all right.  They'll be remembered for throwing a championship away.  Let's take a look at the odds of one of them sustaining an injury in the last three games.

This year, there were at least 21 quarterbacks that lost time due to game injuries (there may have been more, but I'm not going to do deep research unless I get paid).  That means a quarterback was injured roughly once out of every 20 games played, or has a 5% chance of getting hurt each game.  Using a simple probability formula, it means that Manning has a 14.3% chance of being injured if he plays the last three games.

For James, the scenario is much the same.  There were at least 24 primary ball carriers injured in games this year, translating to a 14.7% chance of James being hurt if he plays in the last three games. 

So that means there is a 27% chance that at least one of them will get hurt (2% that they both do).  If you're Tony Dungy, are you willing to reduce your chances of winning a Super Bowl by almost 30 percent? 

It's true that the Colts may have some regrets if they win the Super Bowl and realize they could have had an undefeated season.  But that would pale in comparison to the pain they would feel if they didn't win a championship because of meaningless games they played in the regular season.

            Remember, this is the Colts - a team that hasn't proven it can win a significant playoff game.  If the Patriots were in this situation, it might be worth going after to cement its place as one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history.  But Dungy should be increasing the chances of winning a first championship, not decreasing his chances. 

Things can change quickly in the NFL - one needs to look no further than the Philadelphia Eagles, or even the New England Patriots for that matter, as proof of that. 

Plus, who says you won't be remembered as a great team if you don't go undefeated?  The 1985 Chicago Bears are remembered as one of the all-time greats.  That was a team that was expected to dominate the rest of the '80's, but that was the last championship they won.  Again, you don't know how many opportunities you will have, so you have to seize them when they come along.

There are a lot of things worse than being NFL Champions and having a legacy similar to those Bears.  Of course, it would be even better to be mentioned along with the 1972 Miami Dolphins.  But if Dungy goes for it, the Colts could just as easily be grouped with the 1986 Boston Red Sox or the 1990's Buffalo Bills.  Indeed, it is likely not a question if the Colts will be remembered, but how they will be remembered.