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    john_halpin
    Lifetime Points: 63211



    Location:
    Charlotte, NC; on Twitter @jhalpin37; here blogging about fantasy baseball every weekday morning
    About Me: Fantasy sports analyst for FOXSports.com and FOXNews.com ... Co-host a weekly fantasy football video segment ("Wide Write") on FOXNews.com ... Turned down the role of Jack Bauer in "24"
    Marital Status Married
    School Rutgers
    Writer


    Location:
    Charlotte, NC; on Twitter @jhalpin37; here blogging about fantasy baseball every weekday morning
    About Me: Fantasy sports analyst for FOXSports.com and FOXNews.com ... Co-host a weekly fantasy football video segment ("Wide Write") on FOXNews.com ... Turned down the role of Jack Bauer in "24"
    Marital Status Married
    School Rutgers

    Morning Baseball Update: Lee's surgery, Yanks sign Thames

    Tuesday, February 9, 2010, 07:59 AM EST [Fantasy]

    Bob Klapisch thinks the Mets might have the opportunity to rehire Bobby Valentine as manager sometime soon. Sounds good to me. I'll never forget the time Valentine got ejected from a game, and was spotted a few minutes later at the edge of the dugout tunnel wearing a fake nose, mustache and glasses. Every team needs a manager like that.

    On to the news:

    * Some fantasy owners might have had heart attacks yesterday upon reading the headline CLIFF LEE UNDERGOES FOOT SURGERY, seeing as how spring training is just about here. Fortunately, it doesn't look like there's anything to worry about. The surgery was minor, and Lee is expected to be on the field in about three weeks. Don't adjust his draft stock, which should still read as "ace."

    * The Yankees signed OF Marcus Thames to a minor-league deal, and this move can have fantasy implications in AL-only leagues. It's appeared for awhile that the Yanks might be looking at a cheap left-field platoon, and if that's still the case, Thames is an outstanding righthanded part of that plan.

    During his career, Thames has been markedly better against southpaws, with 40 home runs and a solid .845 OPS in 620 at bats. Add that to the fact that the new Yankee Stadium was the American League's friendliest for righthanded-hitting home runs in 2009 according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, and you could be looking at a guy who hits 15 homers in part-time duty. Sure, he'll get pulled for defensive reasons in the seventh inning every time he plays, but that's OK. When looking for your fifth outfielder in that AL-only league, you could probably do a LOT worse than Thames.

    About that minor-league contract - if Thames doesn't make the team, I'll be surprised. He makes too much sense. So much sense, that Randy Winn's fantasy value should take an immediate hit.

    * Eric Stults and James McDonald will battle for the Dodgers' fifth starter slot. McDonald is much younger and much better, if things like that factor into the equation.

    * One Brewers beat writer thinks that Manny Parra will be the team's fourth starter, with Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan battling for the final rotation slot. This news is for NL-only leaguers, but it could impact the stathead types that love Bush's always-strong K/BB ratio. Then there's everyone else, who look at Bush's 6.38 ERA last year and ask, "People like that guy?"

    * I missed a great Francisco Liriano quote from Joel Sherman's Friday "3UP" piece on the New York Post Web site. One National League executive told Sherman that in winter ball, Liriano "was as good as he was in 2006 when we all thought that he was the heir to Johan (Santana)." The hype train just picked up a little more speed, didn't it?

    * Non-fantasy note: One Seattle columnist attempted to apologize to Erik Bedard for unfair coverage last season, but did a really bad job at it. Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner offers an excellent takedown of the apology, for which the columnist should probably apologize. Or re-apologize. Or something. Anyway, the whole thing is pretty funny.

    * For AL-only leaguers, here's an article on how the Rangers will try to get at bats for OF David Murphy. Aren't we all pretty sure that both Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero will get hurt at some point?

    * Today's "I'm in the best shape of my life" article is about Jays' lefty Ricky Romero. Romero might improve, but remember that tons of guys say this stuff in February.

    See you back here tomorrow.

    3.7 (2 Ratings)

    Morning Baseball Update: Bedard, Desmond, Webb

    Monday, February 8, 2010, 07:52 AM EST [Fantasy]

    You might have noticed that as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Super Bowl XLIV, Colts QB Peyton Manning walked off the field without shaking the hands of any Saints. It's probably not a big deal, and Manning said after the game that he'll talk to Drew Brees and Sean Payton soon.

    To continue a point I saw raised last night on Twitter, I'm curious to see if Manning gets the same skewering for this alleged non-sportsmanship that basketball superstar LeBron James got when he did the same thing after his team was eliminated in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. If you want to read some examples of column inches being spent complaining about LeBron's behavior in that instance, go here, here and here. I should assume that Saint Peyton will get comparable treatment today, right?

    Let's take a look at some baseball news from the weekend. It's mostly minor stuff, but you can never know too much.

    * The Mariners re-signed lefty Erik Bedard, who had rotator cuff surgery in August. Bedard's return date seems to be uncertain, with his agent optimistically suggesting April or May, the team Web site vaguely saying he's "expected to be ready to pitch sometime this season," and most other reports pointing to a midseason debut.

    We really don't know what to expect from Bedard, but let's guess on 80-100 innings of average to slightly above average pitching this season, all of which will be in the second half. If you get to the late rounds of your AL-only draft and think your team is strong enough to allow you to stash a guy like that, then go ahead. I wouldn't expect any more from him, though.

    The same AL-only leaguers might want to check out Lookout Landing's rundown of the M's fifth starter candidates while the team awaits Bedard's return.

    * The Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to back up Nick Hundley. If you're nearing the end of your NL-only draft, Torrealba might play enough to hit five or six homers and be OK in your No. 2 catcher slot.

    * While nothing's set in stone just yet, the Indians are reportedly looking at so-so power types like Jermaine Dye, Jonny Gomes and Russell Branyan. This news makes me think the Tribe isn't totally comfortable with the idea of rookie speedster Michael Brantley playing every day.

    * Diamondbacks starter Brandon Webb, who missed most of 2009 and had shoulder surgery in August, will throw a bullpen session on Tuesday. Webb hopes to be ready for Opening Day, and he could be a bargain in your draft. He's going 31st among starters right now at Mock Draft Central, and I've got him 25th on my list. If Webb looks healthy in spring training, don't let last year's injury scare you away from him.

    * Here's another article on Braves' outfield phenom Jason Heyward, who's going to get every chance to win the starting right field job.

    * This blog post says that the Astros believe prospect Jason Castro "has a legitimate shot at being the starting catcher come opening day." Castro hit 10 homers between A ball and Double A last season, so don't expect much from him this season. He probably needs more time in the minors, whether the Astros give it to him or not.

    * With Randy Winn off to the Bronx, Nate Schierholtz will probably start in right field for the Giants. Schierholtz isn't a bad hitter - he posted OPS totals of .925 and .958 during two separate Triple-A stints in 2007 and 2008. He could hit 15-20 homers with a good batting average.

    * Kyle McClellan is in the mix for the Cardinals' fifth starter slot. McClellan, 25, has picked up on pitching coach Dave Duncan's extreme groundball tendencies, and could be a nice sleeper in NL-only leagues. He had a 3.38 ERA in 66 2/3 innings as a reliever last season, and gave up only four home runs.

    * The Blue Jays acquired lefty Dana Eveland from the A's, and he has a chance to make the Opening Day rotation. He's worth no more than your final pitching slot in AL-only leagues.

    * When the Nationals signed 2B Adam Kennedy last week, it looked like SS Ian Desmond would be headed back to the minors. However, according to the team's Web site, they're thinking about "making Desmond an all-purpose utility man -- playing all three outfield positions, shortstop and second base."

    As weird as this sounds, and as much as Desmond should be starting ahead of Cristian Guzman, I think this news puts him back in play as a middle infielder in NL-only leagues. It's not like the Nats will be starting a bunch of superstars, and the odds of Elijah Dukes playing a full season without getting suspended, demoted or arrested are 1,000,000-to-1.

    See you back here tomorrow morning.

    3.7 (3 Ratings)

    Morning Baseball Update: Hudson to Twins, Kennedy to Nats

    Friday, February 5, 2010, 07:33 AM EST [Fantasy]

    Holy cow! I just heard that two free agents agreed to terms overnight, and I pretty much get to be the first person in the universe to assess the fantasy impact of their deals! Huge names, right? What's that? Orlando Hudson and Adam Kennedy? Um ... OK.

    The Twins signed Hudson to a one-year deal, and he'll obviously step in as their second baseman. The O-Dog is expected to bat second, which means that if he gets on base at around his .348 career clip, he'll be in a nice spot to score some runs in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

    Hudson's a better real-life player than he is a fantasy player, with great defense being his calling card (though the numbers say he's declining). Assuming that his bat isn't slipping at age 32, he should hit in the .280s, hit 8-10 homers, steal 8-10 bases, score 70-80 runs, and drive in somewhere around 60. That's not bad, but it's nothing spectacular. The good thing is that Hudson's reliable - outside of his injury-shortened 2008, he's been pretty consistent with numbers like that. The odds of him surprising you with a four-homer, .263 BA season are slim.

    The X factor here is the Twins' new ballpark - it's rumored to be a pitcher's park, but we won't really know until the games are played. There's a definite possibility that the Twins will only play 57 home games this season, since they decided to build their new home without a retractable roof in a place where it snows 317 days a year. OK, maybe I'm exaggerating a little.

    I've got Hudson at No. 18 on my second base list, which is a little lower than most (he's going 12th at the position at Mock Draft Central). That position is deeper than shortstop, which has a bunch of speed-only types in the teens. Hudson's a low-end option for your final middle infield spot in a mixed league, and a low-end starting second baseman in an AL-only league.

    Hudson's arrival in Minnesota kills the fantasy value of both Brendan Harris and Nick Punto. Punto and Harris had been slated to start at second and third, respectively, but now they'll probably share time at the hot corner. Fortunately, this means that there will be far fewer AL-only owners at drafts saying things like, "Do I really have to draft Nick Punto as my starting second baseman! I'm so f*cked!"

    Kennedy has signed with the Nationals, according to Ken Rosenthal. The 34-year-old had a huge 2009 with the A's, batting .289 with 11 homers and 20 stolen bases - he was a fantasy revelation. Problem is, he hadn't put up numbers close to that since 2004, which makes you wonder if it was a fluke.

    The computer projections seem to think it was, since they generally don't like out-of-nowhere seasons from older guys. I literally have no idea what Kennedy's going to do in 2010, so I'm thinking the best bet is to trust the computers, which have him averaging out at about .270 with seven homers and 10-12 steals. However, I tend to think Kennedy has better odds of falling short of those numbers than he does of surpassing them.

    Let's put Kennedy at No. 22 on the second base list, which basically means he's in the same range as Hudson. Kennedy also qualifies at third base, but you don't want him there.

    A big downer resulting from this move is that the Nats are apparently planning to move Cristian Guzman over to shortstop, and send Ian Desmond back to Triple A for much of the season. Desmond was a possible late-round sleeper with 20-steal potential, but for now he won't do you any good unless you're in a keeper league.

    See you back here on Monday.

    3.7 (2 Ratings)

    Morning Baseball Update: Gregg to Jays, Hughes/Joba update

    Thursday, February 4, 2010, 07:11 AM EST [Fantasy]

    Good Lord, will spring training get here already? I wake up in the morning, hope to see some news, and ... not much. In a few weeks, we'll have all the "Player X is in the best shape of his life!" stories we can stand, but for now things are a little slow.

    Let's get to what passes for fantasy-related news:

    * Kevin Gregg has reportedly signed with the Blue Jays, but it's not yet clear exactly what his role will be. The Toronto Star thinks he'll become the closer, while the team's Web site reports that Gregg will be part of a spring training competition with Jason Frasor and Scott Downs. I tend to believe the team site's contention that the matter isn't settled, but the experienced Gregg has to be viewed as the favorite whether he deserves to be or not.

    Gregg saved 84 games from 2007-09 with the Marlins and Cubs, and struck out about a batter per inning over that span. However, he gave up an astounding 13 homers in 68 2/3 innings for the Cubs, and lost his job to Carlos Marmol late last season.

    The guys at Bluebird Banter think a strong first half by Gregg would make him a good trading chip, while Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott thinks Downs could be dealt for prospects sooner than that.

    Despite the uncertainty, we've gotta rank all these guys somewhere, right? Let's put Gregg at No. 28 on the reliever list, with Frasor 36th and Downs 45th. Everyone ahead of Gregg already has a defined role as a closer.

    * Joel Sherman of the New York Post thinks it's close to a done deal that Phil Hughes will be the Yankees' fifth starter, with Joba Chamberlain headed back to the bullpen.

    If Sherman's right, understand one thing: Hughes will absolutely have an innings limit similar to the one Chamberlain had last season - he'll probably max out at 150 innings. You don't have to like it, you can think it's dumb and soft, and you can rant all you want about how Walter Johnson used to throw 80 innings a week or some such nonsense. Hughes will not be a 200-inning starter in 2010. Chamberlain, on the other hand, could be if he gets the job.

    For now, since we can't be sure the decision has been made, I've got Hughes ranked 52nd among starters and Chamberlain 58th. Maybe I'm a biased Yankee fan, but they both still have the chance to be pretty good, and would be in line for plenty of wins as a starter on that team.

    * The Nationals have been rumored to be in pursuit of second basemen like Orlando Hudson and Adam Kennedy. With Cristian Guzman already on the roster and making a boatload of money, it's time to get pessimistic about Ian Desmond's 2010 fantasy prospects.

    Desmond's ready to start now, and he hit 11 homers with 22 stolen bases between the minors and majors in 2009, but that doesn't mean he won't be passed over for someone more famous. If and when the Nats sign a second baseman, we'll need to look at the team's quotes very closely to see what they're planning for Desmond.

    See you back here tomorrow.

    3.7 (2 Ratings)

    Morning Baseball Update: Will CitiField kill Jason Bay's power?

    Tuesday, February 2, 2010, 08:10 AM EST [Fantasy]

    There was a flurry of minor moves on Monday, with the biggest ones being the Mariners' signing of Ryan Garko as a platoon first baseman, and the A's acquiring OF Willy Tavares from the Reds, only to designate him for assignment about four seconds later. Garko is only worth drafting as a cornerman in AL-only leagues, while we need to see where Tavares lands in order to understand if his speed will have any fantasy value. There - I'm done for today.

    OK, the editors want me to keep going, so let's take a look at an interesting question: Will Jason Bay's move to the Mets kill his fantasy value? The question gets asked a lot for three main reasons:

    1. The Mets were horrible offensively in 2009, finishing 12th in the National League with 671 runs, and last with a paltry 95 homers.
    2. David Wright's home-run output dropped off a cliff, going from 33 in 2008 to 10 in 2009.
    3. Media and players spent the entire season saying things about CitiField like, "Man, flyballs just die in this place." Maybe they said those things because of reasons 1 and 2, and maybe they didn't.

    The park index section from the 2010 Bill James Handbook didn't see the Mets' home park as a huge power killer in 2009: It got a 94 for runs, a 106 for home runs, and a 110 for righthanded home runs (100 is neutral). But since that's only one season, maybe those indices don't tell the whole story.

    Please note that I haven't been to CitiField, haven't talked to anyone that's played there, and watched maybe two or three Met home games on TV last season. For this exercise, I'm a stereotypical blogger, except that I don't publish mine from my mother's basement.

    There are plenty of complicated methods we can use to look deeper, but A) James' book probably used them already, and B) I'm not smart enough to calculate them. For now, let's see how some of the Mets' righty power hitters did last year at home versus on the road:

    Wright

    AB/HR (home): 51.6

    AB/HR (road): 55.4

    Carlos Beltran

    AB/HR (home): 48

    AB/HR (road): 23.4

    Gary Sheffield

    AB/HR (home): 30

    AB/HR (road): 23.6

    Jeff Francoeur (CitiField vs. non-CitiField, including w/ Braves)

    AB/HR (home): 34.2

    AB/HR (road): 40.5

    Those numbers don't tell us too much, especially since we're talking about a group of guys that totaled 45 home runs. Beltran was hurt for much of the year, Sheffield is old, Francoeur is just OK, and Wright's home-run rate was slightly better at home. Wright was the only one that played a full season, so the data were using is far from ideal.

    Some people will argue that CitiField affected Wright's swing as a whole, but that's about as provable as saying someone put a curse on him. We have no idea if it's true.

    Bay is pretty much a hardcore pull hitter when he homers, so CitiField's 415-foot right-center field alley won't hurt him at all. Citi's dimensions to left are certainly bigger than Fenway Park's, but this article from Bleacher Report suggests that Bay won't be hurt so much by his new home.

    Matthew Cerrone, whose MetsBlog is about the best available online source for Mets' information and insight, noted in October that the team's hitters and pitchers performed similarly at home and on the road, making the ballpark-as-homer-killer argument difficult to prove - at best.

    Maybe CitiField will prove its critics right, and play as an extreme pitcher's park over time. However, it's more likely that the degree of its 2009 impact has been overstated due to the fact that Wright had a really off year in the power department, and the rest of the team was hurt, stunk or both.

    With that said, Bay's still probably a 30-100-100 guy who can steal 10-15 bases and bat .280 (his career average). I've got him ranked seventh among fantasy outfielders, and he's going sixth at Mock Draft Central. It sounds like that big, bad ballpark isn't scaring fantasy owners too much, after all.

    If you disagree with this, think I need to look at another angle, etc., let me know in the comments area below. See you back here tomorrow.

    (Note: I'll actually be back on Thursday - feeling more than a bit under the weather Wednesday morning. Try not to miss me too much.)

    3.7 (2 Ratings)