We are just over two days away from the Preakness, so it is time for ToTT to focus. 

The big stories leading up to Saturday all revolve around Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, taking the focus away from Derby Champ Mine That Bird.

 

First, it was jockey Calvin Borrel's decision to jump ship on 'Bird on go with the filly... who he has could be "the next Secretariat," (a bit much don't you think?).  Mike Smith, who rode Giacomo to a win in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, will take over.

 

Next it was the connections of Pioneerof The Nile and Mine That Bird doing their version of the chicken dance...

 

 

... as they attempted to keep Rachel' from competing in the Preakness.  Lame excuses ranged from 'concern' about the filly's health going against colts, to wanting 'revenge' on other Derby runners to unspecified 'business' reasons.  Fortunately, soon after, they dropped that foolishness.

 

Finally, the filly has moved to the top of most pre-race polls over Pioneer', and will very likely line up as the favorite.  The last filly to be favored in the Preakness was 1988 Derby winner Winning Colors, who went on to finish third... I don't think she would have beaten eventual winner Risen Star that day, as he was without a doubt the top 3yo in the US that year, but she was doomed from the start with 'sour grapes' tactics from Woody Stephens, who trained Derby runner-up Forty Niner, and sent his colt, a stalker / closer, to push the early pace in an admitted effort to keep the filly from running off as she had done in the Derby.  His logic was that if he did not do that, she would have won again... Of course, he never acknowledge that by doing that, he was guaranteeing his own colt would not win either, ruining to beat another horse instead of running his own to win...

 

This is the same sour tactics employed by the connections of Eddington, and to some extent Rock Hard Ten, against Smarty Jones in the 2006 Belmont, which very likely cost Smarty' the Triple Crown.  Granted, his jockey Stewart Elliot should not have been suckered into the faster-than-expected pace either and instead hung back, but there is no place for those tactics.  If your horse can't win on his own merit, don't run him instead of purposely ruining the race for another.

 

As for the rest of the field, Derby racers Papa Clem, Musket Man, Friesan Fire, General Quarters and Flying Quarters, join the aforementioned three, alongside Terrain, Tone it Down and Big Drama.

 

Now we already announced that we will be following recent trends and focusing one one of the top 6 Derby finishers as our expected winner, just like it has happended 16 of the last 20 years.  But first, a couple of words about three horses that could be in position to break that trend:

 

Rachel Alexandra - We'd be remiss if we did not say the filly has an excellent shot.  Some, a bit prematurely I think, are already calling her the best racehorse in the world. She has been toying with her own sex, has the pedigree and physique to dominate, and her time as she cruised in the Oaks was faster than all 9f prep races by the colts for the exception of Quality Road's Florida Derby win.

 

Big Drama - The winner of 6 in a row, at least if we count his DQ from the Gr-II Swale, he was expected to be on the Derby trail until an injury early on knocked him out.  Returned to post a front running 'win' in the Swale, setting a track record in the process.

 

Friesian Fire - No doubt, one of the top 3yo's in the country.  His Derby was over shortly after it started, as he clipped heels, suffering cuts and bleeding.  Plus we're sure the 7-week layoff did not do him any favors.

 

So why won't these three win besides not fitting the trend.  Big Drama is a very gutsy horse that does not give up the lead once he has it.  But truthfully, we see him more as a miler / sprinter.  We see him going to the front at the start, which in turn will mean a tougher early going for Rachel Alexandra than she is used to.  In the Oaks, she cruised alongside an overmatched front-runner, and in her previous few races, she controlled the pace from the start.  This time, she will hook up with a proven Gr-I winner, which is a different story.  Expect those two to be 1-2 as they start the final turn, but we sense the rush of stalkers right behind them will have the final say.  Expect to hear a lot about how Pimlico is a speed-favoring track, this and that about the tight corners and so forth, but in the last 20 years, only twice has any colt gone wire to wire (War Emblem in '02 and Louis Quatorze in '96)

 

As for Friesan Fire, in the end, you don't usually see a colt get beat in the Derby then come back with a top effort in the Preakness just two weeks later. He has the talent, but we'll pass on this one.

 

So on to our final four, and the Derby champ first... Its been over 20 years since a true deep closer took the Preakness.  Point Given, Red Bullet and Afleet Alex were midpack, while the others were much closer to the pace.  So with that said, unfortunately, no Triple Crown this year... And we will still be rooting for him.

 

So how then do we differentiate between Pioneer', Papa' and Musket', who all finished half a length apart in the Derby? All while we stalking Rachel and Big Drama, and that has been the recent winning style. Workouts? Nope, as Pioneer and MM continue to work well, while Papa is slow... But so were his workouts prior to the Derby?

 

Past performances of past winners? Nope.  In the last ten years, we've had R Santa Anita Derby alumni (Pioneer), 3 Arkansas Derby winners (Papa) and one Illinois Derby winner (Musket).

 

Now what?  Well there is a final, unscientific trend that we could look at. It's been 16 years since a Derby runner up won the Preakness (Prairie Bayou in '93).  In that time, we've had 7 Derby winners repeat and 4 third place winners jump up two slots for the win.

 

So what are we saying?  That in a race that is going to come down to good ol' fashioned gut feeling, ToTT says the winner will be the fifth 3rd place Derby finisher to come out on top in the second leg... Musket Man... cheer for Mine that Bird though. Nothing would do the sport better than that long awaited Triple Crown winner...

 

Last year's winner Big Brown failed in his bid to win the Triple Crown when he inexplicably flopped in the Belmont, his only career loss.  He went on to win the Gr-I Haskell and the Monmouth Stakes on his way to 3yo Champion honors.  He was injured as he trained for the Breeders Cup Classic and was retired.

 

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In other news, last Sunday, Irish colt Silver Frost blew past his overmatched rivals down the stretch to win the Gr-I Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas). 

The win was his 3rd in 4 starts.  The French Derby will likely be his next stop.  Meanwhile, English 2000 Guineas winner Sea the Stars is expected to start next Saturday in the Gr-I Irish 2000 Guineas.

 

The second euro Gr-I for older horses in '09, the Prix d'Ispahan, will be contested this Saturday in France.  Headlining the bill will be the winner of last year's Breeder's Cup Mile, the filly Goldikova.  Less distinguished Gr-I winner Cima de Triomphe should be her main rival.

 

Last year's winner Sageburg, reached his peak that day, dropping his next 3 starts before being retired.  He was never worse than 4th in 10 career starts.

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Finally, in what was indirectly referred to as the weakest cast of characters since the movie Gigli, Kim Kardashian emerged as the best of the worst to be crowned Miss ToTT May.  Why?  Kb33' said it best: