The draft is coming up, and mock drafts have abound, from the paid columnist experts to the below average blogger, mock drafts have been rolling in. I have remained a bit quiet on this, but no more.

Does this mean I will post a mock draft?

No. That would be too easy, and simultaneously too difficult. This off-season has held an unforeseen amount of chaos, and dipping my toes into what might happen only leave me prone to being wrong. And I hate being wrong.

So instead, I've decided to post a brief listing of things I don't see happening, despite rumors, wishes, and ramblings otherwise. We'll start from the top, and keep in mind, I'm only going to talk about the first round.

1. I don't believe Oakland will draft anyone with the first pick but JaMarcus Russel. Yes, Calvin Johnson is the top talent in the draft, but Oakland ditched Brooks, passed on Garcia, Carr, Schaub, and a bevy of other QBs, and they saw how Andrew Walters performed last year. Add to that the current retention of Randy Moss and Al Davis' comparisons of Russel to... gulp... Elway, and the picture becomes clear. The only way Oakland scores Johnson is through a series of mind-boggling trades that result in having 2 of the top 4 picks. And that's not going to happen.
2. I don't believe Detroit will draft anyone at 2. I think this pick should be renamed "Who wants Calvin Johnson the most?" The answer is "not Detroit" and if someone is able to make a somewhat reasonable bid for the pick, Detroit will be more than happy to fill the many, many gaps on their team.
3. I don't believe Adrian Peterson will slide out of the top 10. After the Reggie Bush debacle, I think any team not making a bid for the top running back if they have need will risk the scorn of generations. Do I know who will get him? My guess would be the Browns, but I could be wrong. I think Lewis and Peterson would be a great tandem. Still, that's not the issue.
4. I don't believe the Bucs will pass on Gaines Adams if he is at 4. Bringing in Cato June, and the having Charles Grant in for a workout and possible trade speaks to how badly they want to rebuild the D.
5. I don't believe Brady Quinn will get drafted in the top 5. But I think it will be damn close.
6. I don't believe Atlanta will get all the value out of the two spot swap with the Texans that they had hoped for. Yes, I think there is a large chance that LaRon Landry will get pulled before the 8th pick, and I think Levi Brown and Leon Hall (or other players on Atlanta's radar) would probably be available at 10.
7. I don't believe Denver will stay at their current slot. I think whether it is a trade up or down depends on if they are keeping Al Wilson. I'm hoping for a trade down.
8. I don't believe Green Bay will get a shot at Marshawn Lynch.
9. I don't believe Green Bay will care all that much.
10. I don't believe Buffalo would look at anything but defense in the first round, and if they were smart, they might try and trade down to score multiple picks in a draft relatively thick with corners and linebackers.
11. I don't believe Chicago will still have Lance Briggs come draft day. Even if talks with the Redskins have cooled off doesn't mean there won't be offers, and the right effort could mean Chicago screwing up everyone's list.
12. I don't believe the Broncos need a defensive end as bad as some would lead you to believe.
13. I don't believe the Chargers or the Chiefs will look beyond getting a wide receiver.
14. I don't believe the Giants or the Bengals should look much beyond a linebacker.
15. I don't believe the flurry of trades, pick-ups, and strange signings have any sign of slowing before the draft. Should be fun to watch.

1st and 20 to life...

There has been much talk this week about Goodell's  meetings with Pacman Jones and Chris Henry. We now await the handing down of a judgement on what the two's extracirricular activities will mean to their NFL careers. Meanwhile, back in Denver, WR Brandon Marshall was cuffed last week for a misdemeanor domestic dispute, and a felony level false imprisionment.

This all bothers me. Why, you ask? Is it because I'm ashamed of the NFL players? Is it because they set a bad example? Or is it something more...

It is because this whole thing is chaos. In recent history we have seen celebrity trump justice time and time again. It's grotesque. Every level of popular culture has examples of dudes who somehow skirt the rules because we know who they are. It's dumb. A crime should fit a punishment, but our culture has made it nearly impossible to recall what that is behind the glare of a spotlight. Sometimes, in reaction, we even get a violent backswing of a cop or jury coming down harder on a celeb because "they shouldn't get away with it".

Do I know what's going on with Jones or Henry? No. I wasn't there. I'm not a cop. So this isn't about them. Do I know what happened when Randy Moss or Jamal Lewis were cuffed years ago? No. Do I know what happened with Brandon Marshall? No (though my family does have a history in law enforcement, and I know the charges don't make sense... combined, they're incongruent... but I won't get into that, again, it's speculation). Here's the real question. Do I believe they should be suspended?

No.

I know, shock and awe. But why? They're bringing down the game, their bad role models...

Blah blah blah. I said I don't believe they should be. What I do believe is that if they do a crime, they should be punished fairly for it, just as anyone else in the world should be. It's hard to make catches from behind bars. But when we, as a society, have let things spin so violently out of control that a private organization can decree punishment upon an individual, things are bad. I think the fact that the NFL has to start handling how players act off field is more of a criticism of our justice system and less of right step in business policy.

But I know what some are thinking... "Jmac, what if someone at your work was taken to jail for..." whatever. They would be fired. There would be no negotiation. Like the monopoly card says "GO STRAIGHT TO JAIL. DO NOT PASS GO. DO NOT COLLECT $200." That's that. You get sentenced for something, you find other work. You wear a bracelt around your ankle with a pager like device attached. You do not work in a "Professional Environment". Let some of these guys try to rebuild careers after contract after contract has been torn assunder because they can't keep their ass on the straight and narrow. But you know what, let the judicial body be the judge of it (haha. Judge. Get it?) Not a private corporation. If my workplace started telling me how to live morally, I would be out of their in a flash.

And what of the role model issue?

They're football players. They play a game. Look up to person for who he is and what he does (See my bit about Rod Smith for further details). Not what his contract allows him.

QB, or not QB. That's not a question.

Back to the fantasy stuff. I explained what my primary league looks like in my last blog. I also gave you a look at my top 20 running backs for next years fantasy draft. Now I am proud to show my top 20 QBs, but keep in mind, nothing is solid. Already, the running back list I posted has been... altered... as this list will likely be as well. But I figure, why not?

This year, my overall draft is likely to include 3 QBs in the FIRST ROUND. That's right, a 12 man league, and my first round wish list is 9 running backs and 3 QBs. Why?

Because there are many good runners. There are precious few good QBs, and depending on your leagues point system, QBs can kill you. So here we are...

1. P. Manning (Ind QB) - Of course he's first amongst QBs. He's damn good, and I've avoided him the last 2 years and felt like an idiot for it. So, unless he scores the cover of Madden, yeah, I want him.
2. C. Palmer (Cin QB) - I still like Carson's situation. Housh and Ocho Cinco are a nice combo, and I think Palmer didn't do well until late in the year due to the knee injury. It's amazing what he put up after he decided not to worry about it anymore and got his mechanics backs.
3. T. Brady (NE QB) - Another guy I used to avoid like the plaugue for personal reasons, he's just a damn good QB, and with a bevy of capable wideouts coming in, he should be really good. Why is he behind Carson? Chemistry. Carson know his guys.
4. D. Brees (NO QB) - Who can't love Drew after last year? The injuries are a concern, but the dude is tough. He's not a first round for me, but the margin is minimal.
5. M. Bulger (StL QB) - This could change too as St. Louis line gets better. Again, injuries can be scary, but it's an always potent offense if Marc can stay on his feet for a few seconds.
6. D. McNabb (Phi QB) - SO MANY INJURY CONCERNS. Welcome to the NFL, I guess, but when in there, Donovan will put up points like nobody's business, and I think overall, the Eagles will be even more improved than last year. The question is, of course, will Donovan's hip?
7. M. Hasselbeck (Sea QB) - Trade away Darrel Jackson, and Matt slips on my list. Again, I love QBs and WR who know eachother. Marvin and Peyton. Joe and Jerry. This sort of thing is essential when trying to make a smart pick. Without Darrell, I'm just not convinced.
8. J. Cutler (Den QB) - Call me a homer. Whatever. I like the wideouts. I like Jay's ability, and I love the defense's ability to give Jay more chances.
9. P. Rivers (SD QB) - He's good. He really is. Give him a real set of wideouts, and man... the guy should blow minds.
10. B. Farve (GB QB) - Favre is the official point in the draft where I start getting REALLY nervous. If I don't get one of the top 9, I guess Favre would be OK, but his season had more dramatic ups and downs than a French art film last year.
11. B. Rothesberger (Pit QB) - I think Ben will be better next year. I also think Brittney looks better bald. What do I know?
12. M. Schaub (Hou QB) - If they get a second wideout, I'm psyched for him. I think the line has been improved in the offseason. I secretly hope the Texans move up in the draft, and through a trade with Detroit pick up Calvin Johnson. Then it will be Johnson & Johnson, a family company. Schaub should have a field day.
13. J. Delhomme (Car QB) - I don't know why everyone is so down on Jake. He had a bad season last year, and he NEEDS Steve Smith on the field. But he's servicable, and there are worse options.
14. C. Pennington (NYJ QB) - Injury worry, slow as frozen pudding, but a cannon and some great options... add to that an ever improving line and Thomas Jones, and he may be great. Or, he may not.
15. E. Manning (NYG QB) - I simply don't trust him, nor the Giants. Just don't. But... hey, he might be worth a gamble.
16. M. Leinart (Ari QB) - He drops off the list if the Cards did anything dumb like trade away Fitzgerald, as was rumored earlier in the season. If the line improves and other key pieces stay, he's a good #2 for me.
17. T. Romo (Dal QB) - I think he's overhyped. I also think I could do worse, and someone has to throw to T.O.
18. A. Smith (SF QB) - He dropped when they pull Lelie. Seriously. Get better wideouts.
19. V. Young (Ten QB) - Rushing yards count too, and while he scares the crap out of me, Vince Young just wins games... and there's nothing wrong with that.
20. S. McNair (Bal QB) - Do I trust McNair, no. But I like the Ravens againt this year, and someone had to be #20.

People who might slide in:

No one. Seriously, if I don't draft 1 or 2 of those guys listed above, I'm quitting fantasy football.

That is all from me. Hope all is well with all of you.

Denver Broncos thought -

Rod Smith is having to sit out of preseason work outs for the first time in NFL career. His offseason hip surgery should keep him off the field until the official training camp begins, but by all estimates, he should be good to go come the season. Many thought the resigning of Brandon Stokely may be an effort to assure a solid third if Rod cannot play, but knowing Rod Smith's history, the chances of that are unlikely.

Rod Smith is an NFL rarity. An undrafted pick up, Rod has racked up phenomenal stats and two superbowl rings in his career. While being listed as the #1 receiver on the Broncos depth charts for as long as I can remember, he has worked himself non-stop in an effort to compete. I remember in a pre-season interview last year he was asked if he felt the signing of Javon Walker was a threat to his continued career. He laughed it off and replied that every season he expects to walk into the locker room and see his name removed from the locker. He uses this self doubt to work himself harder. Never have I had the experience of watching such a mix of confidence, heart, and humility in a professional athlete. I don't think this will be his last season, but when the time come, I hope the voting community keeps that well in mind when choosing candidates for the hall of fame when his eligibility rises.

Fantasy - RB draft order (for now) -

I have begun positioning my draft order for next year's fantasy league. In both keeper leagues and other leagues, the Running Back is often the first position reviewed. They will get you more points on a more consistent basis than other positions.

But first, some background on my league of focus... my friends and I have become a bit competitive, so I plan heavily around this league to avoid continued mockery throughout the year. Points are gained for touchdowns, rushing yards gained, receptions, receiving yards gained, extra points, field goals, and points are lost for fumbles, interceptions (which happens), and concerning QBs, sacks. An empahsis is still placed on runners, but QBs and top WR become a little more important than your standard league. We also draft individual defensive players rather than team defenses, but I'm sure I'll get to that later.

In the meantime, I offer my insight into the RB market this year with a top 20 on my list, and why.

1. L. Tomlinson (SD RB) - L.T. should be the undeniable first pick in any league this year. What he did last year was amazing, and barring any major changes with coaching staff change over, it should be much the same this year. I'm not too worried, as it seems this coaching staff should emphasize L.T. as well.
2. S. Jackson (StL RB) - This is most specifically due to the fact that I'm involved in PPR leagues. I think the continued potency of St. Louis' offense, Stephen's ability to play non-stop, McMichael's being pulled in at TE, and a slightly improved line only bodes well for a guy who finished near the top last year anyway.
3. S. Alexander (Sea RB) - Likely to slip slightly due to the injury plagued year, Alexander should be a steal for anyone lacking the top spot. His line isn't as potent as it was when he was the man 2 years ago, but he'll still be likely to haul in the points week in and week out. I drafted him last year with the top pick, and learned a valuable lesson. THE MADDEN CURSE IS REAL. If LT lands on the cover this year, don't pull him until the second round. I don't care. It's real. Be aware, and try not to become involved in any league that drafts before the cover is announced.
4. B. Westbrook (Phi RB) - Again, being a PPR league, Westy is a strong pick. Unfortunately, he is a constant injury risk, though he proved last year that if there is a chance he can play, he will.
5. W. McGahee (Bal RB) - McGahee found himself in a very sweet situation. He has a line that helped make a declining Jamal Lewis look like a pretty good back last year, and a team that depends on the run only bodes well for fantasy leagues. McGahee can run just as hard as Lewis, but is more dodgy and his speed could equal more home runs this year. Add to that McNair's love of dumping the ball off on passing situations, and it looks like McGahee will be able to do some major damage.
6. T. Henry (Den RB) - Similar to McGahee, Travis Henry finds himself moving from a team with a questionable run line to a team built for it. Henry also had to compete with Vince Young's rushing ability last year, and he still managed to go well over 1,000 yards. The one cut run system in Denver is a perfect match for Henry's running style, and while some may think a tandem with Mike Bell may hurt Travis' ability to go big, it is in keeping him fresh that I think this guy will do serious damage.
7. W. Parker (Pit RB) - I foresee the rebirth of Big Ben this year. While up and down in his logic last year, I think he should be good to go. Add to that the addition of Sean Mahan and I like Willie Parker to produce numbers this year. He's still a work load back, and they haven't dubbed him "Fast" Willie Parker for just any reason. Week in and week out, he should provide a strong, consistent set of points.
8. J. Addai (Ind RB) - Addai sans Rhodes... it's interesting. On one hand, he played several games last year where Rhodes would simply spell him. He was the definitive receiving back for the Colts, and he did serious damage throughout the playoffs. On the other hand, I can't be sure about him as a single workhorse for an entire season without seeing it first. It is this doubt and this doubt alone that keeps me from pulling him earlier. 
9. R. Bush (NO RB) - Now, you may ask yourself in a PPR league why would I pull a RB who doubles as a WR so late? There are answers to all things, and here there are 2 strike marks I can foresee. The first, he is still a tandem back, and like it or not, McAllister will still take a good amount of weight from his shoulders. The second, the kid scares me. His high flying acrobatics and the sacrificing to pull those last few inches makes me nervous. They're great for 2 things. Highlight reels and short careers. I am a Bush believer, but sometimes, you have to listen to your gut.
10. L. Johnson (KC RB) - I expressed in my first blog my fear of Larry Johnson this year. He's a powerful back and a workhorse to boot, but I just don't like the odds stacked against him this year. Unless KC beefs their line again, I'm going to pass on this pick a while. And for anyone who gets clever and wants to argue I said he's a second rounder for me... he still is. Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady are ahead of him on the complete draft list. Why so many first round QB's? Because in a league where you can lose points for ints, sacks, and fumbles (like my primary league), a bad QB will screw you for the season.
11. L. Maroney (NE RB) - Now the solo back for New England, I think the more potent receiver corps will only help him. So why is he here? Because I'm not sure all the same.
12. R. Johnson (Cin RB) - Could very well move up in short order. He's another one on a very potent offense that I just can't make a final call on yet. On one hand, I think the offense will be great this year and I see Rudi's role expanding. But until a few other pieces move into place, this is as high as he goes. Fortunately, he won't drop any either.
13. M. Jones-Drew (Jax RB) - If he is announced the team's returner again this year, his stock rises. Until then, his placement is marred by the likely heavy involvement of Fred Taylor and LaBrandon Toefield
14. T. Jones (NYJ RB) - OK, it took all the strength I had in me not to rank Jones higher. I love him in New York. I love the continued growth potential of their line. I really do. But I dropped him because 1) I might be able to snake him later than other RBs, and 2) I can't be sure yet on some of the Jets' other off season moves. But I really like Jones.
15. R. Brown (Mia RB) - People are worried about Ricky Williams' possible return hurting Brown's value. Not me. I'm worried about that off-season surgery and not having a truly helpful second back. Williams hasn't played in the NFL for a while and won't be the guy to help enough here. Ronnie may be good, but if he plays 10 games as the solid workhorse without major support, I'll be shocked.
16. F. Gore (SF RB) - Why is Gore all the way down here? Because last year's effort was a fluke and he fumbles too much. Now he has guaranteed money, and I don't see him trying as hard as he did last year. Yes, I'll still take him over about 80% of the backs in the NFL... but there are a lot of backs in the NFL.
17. C. Portis (Was RB) - He's Clinton Portis. He's great. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury was pretty severe. Ladell Betts was damn good backing him up, and if the coaching staff has the slightest bit of hesitancy, Portis will sit a good amount.
18. E. James (Ari RB) - I think Arizona's line will improve this year. I like Edge. I still think there's so much room for improvement from last year that I won't try too hard to pull Edge.
19. C. Benson (Chi RB) - I think Ced will do just fine. But not great. I think there will be great cause to miss Thomas Jones. But Benson will be a second or third back I'd be happy to have.
20. V. Morency (GB RB) - My top 20 finishes out with a bit of a surprise, even to me, but I think Morency showed some ability last year and he should be more familiar with the offense now. Without playing behind Green, he's primed for a breakout season. Add to that the thought that I believe Green Bay will turn to the running game more this year in hopes to take some focus off of Favre, and he's worth a bit of an effort in the draft.  

OTHER GUYS WHO MIGHT SLIDE IN:

M. Turner (SD RB) - If he gets traded, especially to the Titans, he will leap dramatically, and displace a good amount of backs on my list. 
M. Barber III (Dal RB) - Am I the only one who still thinks Julius Jones could end up else where? If it does happen, I still don't se J.J. making a leap to the top 20, but Barber will.
D. Williams (Car RB) - Another back who could break out if he can move out of a supporting role... but only pre-season will tell.
A. Peterson (Undrafted) - I learned last year to never underestimate the ability of a rookie. Depending on the situation he lands in, he could make a leap.

I would now like to demonstrate that I am often right. For this, I will use one Broncos example, and one non-Broncos example first...

The Buffalo Roam

No one believed me when I started claiming that after the new cap deal that Buffalo would begin making efforts to find a new home. In a seen paralleling the classic sports comedy "Major League" the Bills have begun to spread the love of their best players around the league. Most recently in a trade with Philly, former Pro Bowler Takeo Spikes and vetern QB Kelly Holcomb have been traded for Walker and a pick maybe sort of kind of next year. I'm not even sure Walker was a starter last year. I think if Philly would have made the pick a seventh rounder this year, they'd have Lee Evans. Yep. The moves make that little sense. But add that to the loss of London Fletcher-Baker, Nate Clements and Willis McGahee and others for a few linemen. I'm sorry Buffalo, but they're sinking the talent to bankrupt sales and move the team. I wouldn't even be surprised if they hold open team auditions. Start dealing with it. Maybe they'll win it all through a series of flukes in the feel good comedy of the year. Or, you can get ready to root for the Mexico City Buffaloes.

High and Bly

Dre Bly has signed a 5 year deal with Denver. After all the worry and rumor that he wasn't happy to be here, he signs for 5 years. I think he's just dandy joining the squad, as I knew he would be. Want proof? Check out my post on the Foxsports Broncos board under the thread "Bye bye Bly" or something. I called it.

But hey, I just think too much. What do I know?

Back to work.

Well, here it is, my first FOXSPORTS blog.

I begin this with zero intent of ever really being read, and a fiendish obsession with football that needs a healthy outlet. First, some background...

I am a Denver native, and grew up in a house with a shrine dedicated to John Elway. I was babysat by VCR recordings of early 80's Broncos playoff victories and Super Bowl defeats. Eventually, I became a fan myself. This was all well and good until I bought my first copy of Madden football in 1996. My interest began to spread across the leagues, and I began a development of playbook knowledge, players aptitude, and a general sense of what makes a team good. The crap finally hit the fan when I participated in my first fantasy football league two years ago. I have managed over 20 teams across multiple platforms and point systems in that time with an 86% win percentage... not bad for a guy who's still pretty new.

Now, I run the possibility of loosing my job at any moment for my constant dwelling on football, and I consider myself a fan of the game of football... who just happens to give preferential treatment to the Broncs.

I'm not here to talk crap, just to wonder aloud about things in the league. This has been a crazy off season, and since completing my fully adjustable spreadsheet for next years draft, I need something new to keep my football thoughts occupied. So, let's begin...

Lost Carr...

I like the Texans. Kubiak is still kind of a Bronco in my mind, so I root for him. I applauded the drafting of Mario Williams last year. Reggie Bush is a potent back who plays dangerously, and on draft day, Kubs went for a long term answer. He also thought he had Domanick Williams (Davis? Whatever) at the time. I thought in the moment, Mario was the second best option for Kubs (D'Brickshaw Fergueson being the best. I mean, that line... so bad). I like the Texans.

But this I don't get. Trading picks and slots with the Falcons to replace David Carr with Matt Schaub is fine. I think if the Texans continue to improve their line (signing Justin Black may be one of the most under-rated moves in their offseason), Schaub and Andre Johnson may become quite a combo. It could be a good fit. Where I get lost is the immediate release of Carr. I believe Carr is a capable QB who may thrive elsewhere in the NFL. While certainly not a pro bowl caliber guy, he could win many games in the right situation, and many teams are bound to have much worse available next year. I think he will likely be signed before the draft to compete for a starting spot. What boggles me is why the Texans wouldn't fish him a bit longer for some value in return. Even a 6th round pick is something.

In the short attention span nature of today's NFL, Kubiak is probably fighting for his job this year. I just hope he uses everything he can to his advantage.

Rumor of the day

More than just a rumor, I guess, the Bears and the Redskins are apparently bartering for Lance Briggs. The deal is apparently that in exchange for Briggs and the 31st pick in the draft, the Bears will move up to the 6 slot. I don't like this one bit. Sure, it makes sense for the Bears, since at the moment Briggs won't play for them next year. And I think Briggs will help whatever team he is on. But this doesn't make sense for Briggs.

When he began his stand against the contract stingy organization, he listed several reasons:

1. He wanted a long term deal. The Skins may well sign him to one, but this is an organization that's willing to pull the trigger on a trade at a moment's notice. Because of their awkward contract structuring, they release players before the later half of a contract is fulfilled, just to save cash and make yet more chaotic moves. More than any other team in the NFL, in my opinion, long term with the Skins in no way means long term.
2. He wants to be the man. He wants to be the field general. That's all fine and well, but it won't happen as long as he's playing next to the Skins other off season pick up, London Fletcher-Baker.

I just don't like it. I also think if the Bears really wanted to, they would be able to get a lot more out of a Briggs deal than just a top 10 flip-flop. Don't get it at all.

Fantasy

For my first fantasy observation, I would like to state that I think Larry Johnson is probably going to be the biggest flop on your draft board. Anyone thinking as far ahead on the upcoming fantasy year as I am probably has him ranked at least third or fourth overall. I will tell you, I will laugh at anyone who pulls him that soon, especially in a PPR league. With an aging, retiring offensive line, an unsure QB situation, and still a lack of real wideouts, Larry will once again be expected to hulk the team on his back... and play in the AFC West against 3 of the better defenses in the NFL on a frequent occasion (do you see that Raiders fans? I gave your defense props. We can be civil). Larry is a great back, but unless the Chiefs make some unexpected moves to help him out, he's a second rounder at best in a 12 player PPR league.

Broncos News

There are apparently efforts to trade away Al Wilson. I hope this doesn't happen. I know it's hard to argue against the business side of football, but I really hope that Denver can find a way to keep him on, and Al may be able to restructure his contract slightly to be able to one day retire as a Bronco. Loyalty and money can often be enemies, and I get that, but as a fan... I hope there is another way.