Denver Broncos thought -
Rod Smith is having to sit out of preseason work outs for the first time in NFL career. His offseason hip surgery should keep him off the field until the official training camp begins, but by all estimates, he should be good to go come the season. Many thought the resigning of Brandon Stokely may be an effort to assure a solid third if Rod cannot play, but knowing Rod Smith's history, the chances of that are unlikely.
Rod Smith is an NFL rarity. An undrafted pick up, Rod has racked up phenomenal stats and two superbowl rings in his career. While being listed as the #1 receiver on the Broncos depth charts for as long as I can remember, he has worked himself non-stop in an effort to compete. I remember in a pre-season interview last year he was asked if he felt the signing of Javon Walker was a threat to his continued career. He laughed it off and replied that every season he expects to walk into the locker room and see his name removed from the locker. He uses this self doubt to work himself harder. Never have I had the experience of watching such a mix of confidence, heart, and humility in a professional athlete. I don't think this will be his last season, but when the time come, I hope the voting community keeps that well in mind when choosing candidates for the hall of fame when his eligibility rises.
Fantasy - RB draft order (for now) -
I have begun positioning my draft order for next year's fantasy league. In both keeper leagues and other leagues, the Running Back is often the first position reviewed. They will get you more points on a more consistent basis than other positions.
But first, some background on my league of focus... my friends and I have become a bit competitive, so I plan heavily around this league to avoid continued mockery throughout the year. Points are gained for touchdowns, rushing yards gained, receptions, receiving yards gained, extra points, field goals, and points are lost for fumbles, interceptions (which happens), and concerning QBs, sacks. An empahsis is still placed on runners, but QBs and top WR become a little more important than your standard league. We also draft individual defensive players rather than team defenses, but I'm sure I'll get to that later.
In the meantime, I offer my insight into the RB market this year with a top 20 on my list, and why.
1. L. Tomlinson (SD RB) - L.T. should be the undeniable first pick in any league this year. What he did last year was amazing, and barring any major changes with coaching staff change over, it should be much the same this year. I'm not too worried, as it seems this coaching staff should emphasize L.T. as well.
2. S. Jackson (StL RB) - This is most specifically due to the fact that I'm involved in PPR leagues. I think the continued potency of St. Louis' offense, Stephen's ability to play non-stop, McMichael's being pulled in at TE, and a slightly improved line only bodes well for a guy who finished near the top last year anyway.
3. S. Alexander (Sea RB) - Likely to slip slightly due to the injury plagued year, Alexander should be a steal for anyone lacking the top spot. His line isn't as potent as it was when he was the man 2 years ago, but he'll still be likely to haul in the points week in and week out. I drafted him last year with the top pick, and learned a valuable lesson. THE MADDEN CURSE IS REAL. If LT lands on the cover this year, don't pull him until the second round. I don't care. It's real. Be aware, and try not to become involved in any league that drafts before the cover is announced.
4. B. Westbrook (Phi RB) - Again, being a PPR league, Westy is a strong pick. Unfortunately, he is a constant injury risk, though he proved last year that if there is a chance he can play, he will.
5. W. McGahee (Bal RB) - McGahee found himself in a very sweet situation. He has a line that helped make a declining Jamal Lewis look like a pretty good back last year, and a team that depends on the run only bodes well for fantasy leagues. McGahee can run just as hard as Lewis, but is more dodgy and his speed could equal more home runs this year. Add to that McNair's love of dumping the ball off on passing situations, and it looks like McGahee will be able to do some major damage.
6. T. Henry (Den RB) - Similar to McGahee, Travis Henry finds himself moving from a team with a questionable run line to a team built for it. Henry also had to compete with Vince Young's rushing ability last year, and he still managed to go well over 1,000 yards. The one cut run system in Denver is a perfect match for Henry's running style, and while some may think a tandem with Mike Bell may hurt Travis' ability to go big, it is in keeping him fresh that I think this guy will do serious damage.
7. W. Parker (Pit RB) - I foresee the rebirth of Big Ben this year. While up and down in his logic last year, I think he should be good to go. Add to that the addition of Sean Mahan and I like Willie Parker to produce numbers this year. He's still a work load back, and they haven't dubbed him "Fast" Willie Parker for just any reason. Week in and week out, he should provide a strong, consistent set of points.
8. J. Addai (Ind RB) - Addai sans Rhodes... it's interesting. On one hand, he played several games last year where Rhodes would simply spell him. He was the definitive receiving back for the Colts, and he did serious damage throughout the playoffs. On the other hand, I can't be sure about him as a single workhorse for an entire season without seeing it first. It is this doubt and this doubt alone that keeps me from pulling him earlier.
9. R. Bush (NO RB) - Now, you may ask yourself in a PPR league why would I pull a RB who doubles as a WR so late? There are answers to all things, and here there are 2 strike marks I can foresee. The first, he is still a tandem back, and like it or not, McAllister will still take a good amount of weight from his shoulders. The second, the kid scares me. His high flying acrobatics and the sacrificing to pull those last few inches makes me nervous. They're great for 2 things. Highlight reels and short careers. I am a Bush believer, but sometimes, you have to listen to your gut.
10. L. Johnson (KC RB) - I expressed in my first blog my fear of Larry Johnson this year. He's a powerful back and a workhorse to boot, but I just don't like the odds stacked against him this year. Unless KC beefs their line again, I'm going to pass on this pick a while. And for anyone who gets clever and wants to argue I said he's a second rounder for me... he still is. Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, and Tom Brady are ahead of him on the complete draft list. Why so many first round QB's? Because in a league where you can lose points for ints, sacks, and fumbles (like my primary league), a bad QB will screw you for the season.
11. L. Maroney (NE RB) - Now the solo back for New England, I think the more potent receiver corps will only help him. So why is he here? Because I'm not sure all the same.
12. R. Johnson (Cin RB) - Could very well move up in short order. He's another one on a very potent offense that I just can't make a final call on yet. On one hand, I think the offense will be great this year and I see Rudi's role expanding. But until a few other pieces move into place, this is as high as he goes. Fortunately, he won't drop any either.
13. M. Jones-Drew (Jax RB) - If he is announced the team's returner again this year, his stock rises. Until then, his placement is marred by the likely heavy involvement of Fred Taylor and LaBrandon Toefield
14. T. Jones (NYJ RB) - OK, it took all the strength I had in me not to rank Jones higher. I love him in New York. I love the continued growth potential of their line. I really do. But I dropped him because 1) I might be able to snake him later than other RBs, and 2) I can't be sure yet on some of the Jets' other off season moves. But I really like Jones.
15. R. Brown (Mia RB) - People are worried about Ricky Williams' possible return hurting Brown's value. Not me. I'm worried about that off-season surgery and not having a truly helpful second back. Williams hasn't played in the NFL for a while and won't be the guy to help enough here. Ronnie may be good, but if he plays 10 games as the solid workhorse without major support, I'll be shocked.
16. F. Gore (SF RB) - Why is Gore all the way down here? Because last year's effort was a fluke and he fumbles too much. Now he has guaranteed money, and I don't see him trying as hard as he did last year. Yes, I'll still take him over about 80% of the backs in the NFL... but there are a lot of backs in the NFL.
17. C. Portis (Was RB) - He's Clinton Portis. He's great. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury was pretty severe. Ladell Betts was damn good backing him up, and if the coaching staff has the slightest bit of hesitancy, Portis will sit a good amount.
18. E. James (Ari RB) - I think Arizona's line will improve this year. I like Edge. I still think there's so much room for improvement from last year that I won't try too hard to pull Edge.
19. C. Benson (Chi RB) - I think Ced will do just fine. But not great. I think there will be great cause to miss Thomas Jones. But Benson will be a second or third back I'd be happy to have.
20. V. Morency (GB RB) - My top 20 finishes out with a bit of a surprise, even to me, but I think Morency showed some ability last year and he should be more familiar with the offense now. Without playing behind Green, he's primed for a breakout season. Add to that the thought that I believe Green Bay will turn to the running game more this year in hopes to take some focus off of Favre, and he's worth a bit of an effort in the draft.
OTHER GUYS WHO MIGHT SLIDE IN:
M. Turner (SD RB) - If he gets traded, especially to the Titans, he will leap dramatically, and displace a good amount of backs on my list.
M. Barber III (Dal RB) - Am I the only one who still thinks Julius Jones could end up else where? If it does happen, I still don't se J.J. making a leap to the top 20, but Barber will.
D. Williams (Car RB) - Another back who could break out if he can move out of a supporting role... but only pre-season will tell.
A. Peterson (Undrafted) - I learned last year to never underestimate the ability of a rookie. Depending on the situation he lands in, he could make a leap.