As some might have seen, I've posted several mock drafts, none of them allowing for trades up and down the board. Why?

Because that's when someone must write the thin line between conspiracy theory and chaos theory, and let's be honest, it's a difficult thing to do.

This is also a difficult year to project actual draft value. Typically, there is some confangled table that shows how many assumed "points" a pick is worth, and the it's simple math to see if a trade up or down is equitable. But this year there is the added dilemma of rookie salaries and talent drop-off to consider.

Let it ride

Rumor has it, the Lions have been trying to trade back out of the number one slot to avoid paying so much money to the pick. There has even been the whispered discussions of the Lions allowing time to slip away from their first pick, letting their place of selection fall. But then what's to stop the Rams from doing the same? Let's face it, no one wants to be number one this year.

So, it is with this in mind that I'm writing about some of the more interesting trade rumors I've heard thus far, and what I can make of them. I'm going to also restrain myself to the first round info I've heard so far, as I really don't know if anything like "Randy Moss for a fourth" will happen this year, and thinking that hard makes my head hurt.

Mile High Rumors

Not surprisingly, most of the trade allegations floated right now revolve around the Denver Broncos. After losing Jay Cutler in an all-too-public situation, the Broncos were left with two first round selections and two questionable starters in the form of Chris Simms and Kyle Orton. The mid-round picks wouldn't likely yeild a top-notch QB, but there are other considerations in the mix, such as Denver having one of the worst defenses in the league last year and now attempting to switch to a 3-4 under D-coord Mike Nolan.

The trade-up for Sanchez:
Perhaps it's the fact that Mark Sanchez comes from the same college system as Matt Cassel and Matt Stafford reminds many of Jay Cutler, but the general concensus has been that if Denver moves on a QB, it's going to be USC's Mark Sanchez. Stories have Denver trading with Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle, Cleveland, and Jacksonville in order to score him. There are inherent problems with each, of course. The first four picks would likely take a massive package, wiping Denver out of the first round, and moving them into position of a massive contract. Add to that Detriot's lack of want to fall out of the top 10, KC's likely unwillingness to help a division rival (and don't give me the Pioli-McDaniels' connection. They are rivals now. End of story.), and Seattle's own rumored want for Sanchez, and things seem a but more shakey. In the end, I see a very difficult time of Denver justifying such a heavy handed move for a rookie QB. And anyone who claims that Denver fans would be displeased if the Broncos don't draft a QB have not spent a lot of time in the Mile High City. The fans simply want to win, which means improvement all around. A rough move for an unproven rookie QB will only secure McDaniels' image as being to impulsive to effectively lead a team.

Other Denver trade rumors:
I mentioned above that the Browns and Jaguars may be potential trade partners for Denver as well, but some rumors involving these teams travel slightly outside of the realm of Denver drafting Sanchez.

The first is the apparent attempt for Cleveland to become involved with the Jay Cutler trade by offering Brady Quinn up in exchange for a draft pick(s). Rumors have it that depending on which, if any, QBs fall to Cleveland, there might be a possibility of opening the bidding on Quinn. It would allow Cleveland to secure a new QB for the new management, and still score a top defensive addition. Denver would be a likely bidder in Quinn's services, as would Tampa Bay and the New York Jets. Quinn's retrival would likely be at a more reasonable cost than trying to secure one of the top 2 QBs this year (likely only one first round pick), plus he comes with actual NFL starting experience. While the value of a rookie QB might be in question for the Browns, it does seem like more of a possibility.

The last trade rumor circling Denver as of late is a trade up with Jacksonville, but not for a QB. Several people have come to believe that Denver is very interested in Boston College's B.J. Raji. Lauded not only as the top defensive tackle in the draft, it's also believed he's one of a small group of rookie tackles who have the size and strength to play nose tackle for a 3-4 system. Many teams are making the shift this year, and if Denver wants Raji, they likely will have to beat out another team also in the process of making the shift, the Green Bay Packers. The Pack draft at 9, so the Jaguars' pick at 8 seems an ideal target for Denver. The draft value difference would also allow Denver to keep one of their first round picks and exchange a first rounder and a lower selection to move up. The Jags have made their want to trade down pretty widely known, as many of their positions of need don't suffer a major talent drop-off. Of all the trades rumored around Denver, this seems the most simple, and therefore logical.

Players for a pick, around the NFL

Tony Gonzales to the Falcons
In the offseason, Tony Gonzales was heard at the probowl pining for a chance to play for a Superbowl contender. Knowing his NFL clock is running short, the record-setting TE seemed ready to move on from Arrowhead. Of all of last year's play-off teams, Atlanta seems to be the most anxious to be on the other end of such a trade. But major questions still remain here, namely, what exactly would it take to get Gonzo? Not to mention, who's to say that KC won't be a competitor this year. After a series of dynamic moves before the draft, the Chiefs now look poised to move from being the 3rd worst team in the NFL to competeing to win the weakest division. I'm sure Tony would love to bring some excitment back to the KC fans, so all in all, I'm not sure I see this one going through.

Giants need a wide receiver
Only a little more than a year out from winning the Super Bowl, the Giants seem to be in need of a new starting wide receiver, courtesy of Plaxico Burress carrying a gun in his sweatpants and shooting himself in the leg. While the draft is deep with WR talent, it has not kept rumors from swirling that the Giants will opt for someone with a bit more of an NFL rep. The two major names attached to this wondering are Anquan Boldin and Braylon Edwards.

Anquan has not been happy in the desert for a while now, his issues stemming not from teammates or coaches, but from a promise supposedly made to him that his contract numbers would go up to be in closer relation to teammate Larry Fitzgerald's contract. So far, last year's NFC champs have not seemed willing to comply. But the difficulty for the Giants here is that the Cards also seem unwilling to budge. Even if it was in exchange for the Giants first round selection, the Cards seem more than willing to stand pat and let Anquan hash out his own issues. I would say this is less than likely to happen.

Braylon Edwards may be another story entirely. After the shocking trade of Kellen Winslow Jr. to the Tampa Bay Bucs, Coach Mangini took it a step further during the coaches meeting in suggesting that Edwards may be on the block as well. The teams best receiver seemed to catch a case of the dropsies last year, but Edwards is still highly respected in the NFL. It would likely require the Giants' first round pick in exchange.

Other possibilities

Tampa Bay moving up - It seems common consensus that QB Josh Freeman will not fall lower than the New York Jets at pick 17, but Tampa Bay's coach Raheem Morris has a connection to young man's college career, and if the signing of Byron Leftwich is really just a smoke screen, it could be possible that the Bucs will attempt to leap ahead in order to snag him. The most likely target may be the Houston Texans at 15, who should still be able to get a player of need at 19 (likely an OLB). The Texans also have need for depth at several other positions, so scoring additional picks may be worthwhile.

The draft, all shook up

So what could the draft look like?

Assuming that multiple changes could occur, this is about as crazy as I see the draft getting (and no, I didn't put a ton of thought into this. It's just a rough "what if" simulation).

This week I decided to take a different approach to the opening of the draft, and it actually ended up turning a lot on it's head. Then I posted a bad, more sketch version of this, which was dumb, but now I think it's better. But, just so we're clear, my rules have not changed.

1. Continued free agent signings can throw this off.  

2. I start following college football players about... umm... now. A lot of my rankings are more about position of need for the NFL teams, and I try to place guys who seem to fill those holes well, but mostly based on what I've read on them since the combine. If you think another ILB would be better for your team, great. Just know I picked the ILB for a reason.

3. I'm not assuming any further trades, and will likely account for them if they happen later.

So, here we go, let me know what you think.

Pick 1 - Detroit Lions
Matt Stafford - QB, Georgia
Though I've had Jason Smith here, it suddenly struck me that while LT is the smarter pick, it doesn't mean it's the right one, especially in a draft with so many QB hungry teams and the possible value of dealing him away. If the Lions keep him or trade him, he'll be a huge value to them.

Pick 2 - St. Louis Rams
Michael Crabtree - WR, Texas Tech
I still think you'd regret not drafting him, and you gamble on a tackle later. Either way, you need a start no and for years to come.

Pick 3 - Kansas City Chiefs
Eugene Monroe - OT, Virginia
I'm also standing pat here, and yes, I realize Jason Smith is seen as the better tackle, but I think Monroe's value goes up because he will be paired up with former Virginia teammate Brandon Albert (with Albert shifting to RT). If Pioli's priority system is anything like the Pats, building a cohesive, dominating o-line to protect the QB will come to the top of the list.

Pick 4 - Seattle Seahawks
Arron Curry - LB, Wake Forest
Double advantage here in that Curry is still seen as the safest pick of the draft and Seattle needs a new starting LB, and no matter how "in love" I hear Seattle is with Sanchez, I think they'd love Curry more.

Pick 5 - Cleveland Browns
Brian Orakpo - DE/LB, Texas
Orakpo is back up to five as his workout continue to sound strong. Even if it is possible that the Browns might get into some trickery with this draft, pick Orakpo can add some intensity to their corp.

Pick 6 - Cincinnati Bengals
Jason Smith - OT, Baylor
As the Bengals try to rebuild their fearsome offense, protecting Palmer and blocking for Benson or another back becomes important, and Smith is great at both.

Pick 7 - Oakland Raiders
Jeremy Maclin - WR, Missouri
The speedy guy with the preferred hands is the second receiver taken. He is, admittedly, fast enough and big enough for Al.

Pick 8 - Jacksonville Jaguars
Mark Sanchez - QB, USC
I think Sanchez falls just short of Maclin and Crabtree on their list of wants, and wouldn't be surprised if they try to trade back if they score him in exchange for a selection of others.

Pick 9 - Green Bay Packers
Everette Brown - DE/LB
In switching to the 3-4, the pack is going to need some teeth on the D, quickly, and Brown can do it.

Pick 10 - San Francisco 49ers
Andre Smith - OT, Alabama
I think they really want Sanchez. But this time, they don't get him. They instead get a much needed tackle.

Pick 11 - Buffalo Bills
Aaron Maybin - DE/LB, Penn State
A real rush threat to pair across from Schobel falls to 11... but no further.

Pick 12 - Denver Broncos
B.J. Raji - DT, Boston College
The big DT will help Denver make the transition to the 3-4, while still having the ability to play in the hybrid 4-3

Pick 13 - Washington Redskins
Brian Cushing - LB, USC
Looking for a way to fierce up a defense? Enter Cushing. He also fills a gap left by Marcus Washington.

Pick 14 - New Orleans Saints
Malcolm Jenkins - CB/S, Ohio State
Malcolm is still the best of two worlds for the Saints.

Pick 15 - Houston Texans
Clay Matthews - LB, USC
I was recently convinced the Texans need an OLB, even though they signed Cato June and Buster Davis. I could still see them opting for a DT or corner, or maybe trying to move ahead of the Saints to get Jenkins, but Matthews will help firm up the corp.

Pick 16 - San Diego Chargers
Rey Maualuga - LB, USC
Surprisingly, Rey is the last Trojan LB taken in the first round. At least he doesn't have to move far.

Pick 17 - New York Jets
Josh Freeman - QB, Kansas State
Considered a project QB by some and a possible instant starter by others, Freeman finds himself in NY where he'll have to earn his starting position, but where that shouldn't prove too difficult.

Pick 12 - Denver Broncos
Tyson Jackson - DE, LSU
Jackson offers a frame to play a 3-4, which apparently is pretty important when picking a 3-4 end. Denver effectively shores up it's line quickly.

Pick 19 - Tampa Bay Bucs
Percy Harvin - WR, Florida
Harvin rises back up onto my Bucs radar. Partially because Galloway is gone, partially because Antonio seems to think the Bucs don't think he's the long term answer... but someone should be.

Pick 20 - Detroit Lions
Michael Oher - OT, Mississippi
Choosing not to draft a tackle with the first overall pick, the Lions still are able to pick up a talented one at 20 in Oher. While the coaching staff has mentioned their want to build the lines and win in the trenches first, protecting the new QB is also key in making this happen.

Pick 21 - Philidelphia Eagles
Knowshon Moreno - RB, Georgia
Had Beanie Wells going here last time. Now I have Moreno. I might change my mind again. But right now, I'm mad at Wells. Skip on a meeting in Denver, will ya?

Pick 22 - Minnesota Vikings
Eben Britton - OT, Arizona
Like the Rams, I think tackle and WR are their two highest areas of need. But being that the wide receivers have dropped off, so does the Vike's interest. Instead, the pull in Britton, who can fill in at RT for them.

Pick 23 - New England Patriots
James Laurinaitis - LB, Ohio State, Illinois
The major arguement against Laurinaitis going here is that he's more a 4-3 LB, and the Pats are more a 3-4. I say pish. The Patriots will take him because of his work ethic, and that's how he'll pick up the 3-4.

Pick 24 - Atlanta Falcons
Robert Ayers - DE, Tennessee
With an aging line and the release of a bunch of starting LBs, Ayers gives the Falcons some flexibility looking at the rest of the draft.

Pick 25 - Miami Dolphins
Vontae Davis - CB
Losing DBs in the off-season, Davis might be too good to pass on here.

Pick 26 - Baltimore Ravens
Darius Heyward-Bey - WR, Maryland
Let's face it. Derrick Mason played injured last year and he's 83 years old. He needs help, and Heyward-Bey let's Flacco stretch the field

Pick 27 - Indianapolis Colts
Peria Jerry - DT, Mississippi
Still think the Colts want more in the middle, and Jerry would be a nice pull to fall this far.

Pick 28 - Philidelphia Eagles
William Beatty - OT, Connecticut
After some friendly suggestions, I looked into LT Beatty. The Eagles would be big winners here.

Pick 29 - New York Giants
Hakeem Nicks - WR, North Carolina
Let's face it, losing Plaxico kind of hurt. Nicks will make the pain go away.

Pick 30 - Tennessee Titans
Kenny Britt - WR, Rutgers
As has been pointed out to me, the Titans don't pick WRs first. I say, change or die.

Pick 31 - Arizona Cardinals
Chris Wells - RB, Ohio State
So, you want to skip on your Broncos meeting to go to Arizona? Well, I hope you like it in the desert, and the sharing of the load with Hightower and the contrasts to Edge. Have fun, "Beanie".

Pick 32 - Pittsburgh Steelers
Max Unger - OL, Oregon
A lineman! A kingdom for a lineman!

And that's it. For now.

Ta-da...

I've now posted two mock drafts, and I'll probably post more in the weeks to come, but what I would really like to see is a mock draft comprised of Foxsports NFL bloggers. Let's face it, I love the NFL deeply, but I simply can't follow all 32 teams to perfectly, and even though there are now only 29 teams in the first round, I think it would be really neat to hold a mock draft around the horn sort of session with a blogger representing each team. They would have to be both knowledgable of the team's needs and draft liklihoods, and would have to pick in order of draft pick.

I'm still somewhat unknown around here, but maybe somebody would be willing to give me a hand in getting this together. If you're interested, post a comment below if you'd be willing to get the word out or if you would like to represent your favorite team for a first round mock. For this to work, we would have to have one blogger per team. Who knows? Maybe the brains at Foxsports might even find it interesting. We're not experts, we're just interested.

By the way, I've got dibs on the Broncos.

What do you all think?

After the news of the Jay Cutler trade and some other signings and bits of information, I figured I would have to do some rethinking concerning my mock draft. So, here it is.

But the ground rules remain the same.

1. Continued free agent signings can throw this off.

2. I start following college football players about... umm... now. A lot of my rankings are more about position of need for the NFL teams, and I try to place guys who seem to fill those holes well, but mostly based on what I've read on them since the combine. If you think another ILB would be better for your team, great. Just know I picked the ILB for a reason.

3. I'm not assuming any further trades, and will likely account for them if they happen later.

So, here we go, let me know what you think.

Pick 1 - Detroit Lions
Jason Smith - OT, Baylor
I still believe they are more concerned about the line than they are the QB, and if they keep the first pick, this should be it.

Pick 2 - St. Louis Rams
Michael Crabtree - WR, Texas Tech
I still think you need a quality replacement for Holt, and I think folks forget how talented this guy is simply because he can't work out.

Pick 3 - Kansas City Chiefs
Eugene Monroe - OT, Virginia
I look to the Chiefs to protect their 14 million dollar investment in Matt Cassel, and it's only appropriate that they draft the guy who bumped Brandon Albert from his tackle position in college to beef up their line now. That being said, I'm keeping a close eye on what happens with L.J. That could change a lot up.

Pick 4 - Seattle Seahawks
Arron Curry - LB, Wake Forest
I think the Hawks might be looking one of two places here, being LB or QB... though if Curry is gone I'm not sure if they take Stafford for themselves or try to hold him ransom for someone else to make a bid.

Pick 5 - Cleveland Browns
Everette Brown - DE/LB
I'm moving Everette Brown up a slot because there has been more and more concern about Orakpo being a one hit wonder... and I think it would be sweet for Brown to be a Brown.

Pick 6 - Cincinnati Bengals
Brian Orakpo - DE/LB, Texas
Controversy or no, the Bengals will look to Orakpo to add some teeth to the defense.

Pick 7 - Oakland Raiders
Darius Heyward-Bey - WR, Maryland
Last draft, I gave Al the benefit of the doubt that he wouldn't go after a someone based entirely on measurables, but this week, I'm thinking otherwise.

Pick 8 - Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt Stafford - QB, Georgia
I think the Jags would have a problem letting the top QB slide past them. They may try to shed him to one of the more desperate teams or trade away Garrard, but after years of poking around with different QBs, they may see Stafford as the light at the end of the tunnel.

Pick 9 - Green Bay Packers
Aaron Maybin - DE/LB, Penn State
He has been getting a lot of rave reviews and would be extremely helpful in adding some aggression to the Green Bay front 7 as they convert to a 3-4

Pick 10 - San Francisco 49ers
Mark Sanchez - QB, USC
Rumor has it that the 49ers were uncomfortable with Stafford after a psych evaluation, so I think even if both are available here, Sanchez is their guy... and any rumors that they aren't looking at a QB strikes me as a huge smoke screen to keep other teams from trading ahead.

Pick 11 - Buffalo Bills
Tyson Jackson - DE, LSU
They need someone opposite Schobel, and Jackson seems a go-getter. At this point, guys in the DE/OLB range are flying off, so I still think the Bills make a grab for a true DE here.

Pick 12 - Denver Broncos
B.J. Raji - DT, Boston College
There is a possibility that Raji's value could drop even more if the rumors of his testing positive for marijuana at the combine prove true, but even there, the Broncos would have a hard time passing on him. And for the record, I do not see the Broncos trying to take a QB in the first round, and I really don't see them trading up to get Sanchez.

Pick 13 - Washington Redskins
Andre Smith - OT, Alabama
The Redskins need some tackle help on the line, and Andre Smith is too talented to pass on, even if he doesn't have a clue what to do at a combine.

Pick 14 - New Orleans Saints
Malcolm Jenkins - CB/S, Ohio State
With so few picks in the draft, Jenkins can help fill one of two roles of need. The temptation to get Beanie Wells might be there, but the gamble that there will be someone in the 4th round (when the Saints pick next) is good enough that you instead fully fortify the secondary and try to keep shootouts down.

Pick 15 - Houston Texans
Vontae Davis - CB, Illinois
After locking up Duanta, the Texans can beef their secondary with Davis, again, assuming his stock won't drop if the marijuana accusations prove true.

Pick 16 - San Diego Chargers
Rey Maualuga - LB, USC
San Diego found out how important Merriman is to them last year, and how weak their LB corp looks without him. Adding Maualuga to the mix would provide both insurance to the line should Merriman have problems, and ample strength if he's back.

Pick 17 - New York Jets
Josh Freeman - QB, Kansas State
The Jets obviously want a new QB option, and while Freeman isn't their dream candidate, he's better than what they have now.

Pick 18 - Denver Broncos
James Laurinaitis - LB, Ohio State
I don't think the Broncs are convinced that super utility player Spencer Larsen can hold down the ILB next to Andra Davis, and Laurinitis would give a lot of strength and smarts to the middle of a D that needs much improvement.

Pick 19 - Tampa Bay Bucs
Peria Jerry - DT, Mississippi
Tampa's D could get a serious beefing up with Jerry. Cushing may also be an option should he land here, but after the Bucs signed talented journeyman Angelo Crowell, I see it going to the front line.

Pick 20 - Detroit Lions
Robert Ayers - DE, Tennessee
Building both lines should be a priority for the Lions, and Ayers could add some fire and get to the QB, something they've lacked in Motor city.

Pick 21 - Philidelphia Eagles
Chris Wells - RB, Ohio State
With the top RB still on the board, the Eagles fortify their run game for years to come and take some pressure off of Westbrook.

Pick 22 - Minnesota Vikings
Jeremy Maclin - WR, Missouri
After the attempt at Housh, it's obvious the Vikes are not comfortable with their wideout options. Maclin can fix that better than most.

Pick 23 - New England Patriots
Brian Cushing - LB, USC
With Vrabel gone, Cushing would add some serious firepower to the Patriots. Again, I'm assuming the noise about steroid use could get squelched.

Pick 24 - Atlanta Falcons
Clay Matthews - LB, USC
The last of the USC first rounders goes to the Falcons who let two LB's go in the offseason.

Pick 25 - Miami Dolphins
Percy Harvin - WR, Florida
Someone needs to be a scary receiver in Miami, and until he gets some help, it ain't Ted Ginn.

Pick 26 - Baltimore Ravens
Sean Smith - CB, Utah
Most teams require two starting corners, and with Foxworth being signed to replace both Chris McCalister and Samari Rolle, Smith would prove valuable in no time.

Pick 27 - Indianapolis Colts
Evander Hood - DT, Missouri
They want a bigger DT, and now they can have it.

Pick 28 - Philidelphia Eagles
Eben Britton - OT, Arizona
They need youth at tackle, and Britton is a talented kid. He may just be a safety net, but a nice talent to have.

Pick 29 - New York Giants
Kenny Britt - WR, Rutgers
After releasing Plaxico, Kenny brings both size and speed to the team, and they could use it.

Pick 30 - Tennessee Titans
Hakeem Nicks - WR, North Carolina
The Titans need a true top receiver, Nicks would be a grab at this point.

Pick 31 - Arizona Cardinals
Knowshon Moreno - RB, Georgia
With a big question mark around the future of Edge, the Cards may continue to work a combo with Moreno and Hightower. It would get a lot easier to leave James behind if you could draft a top guy like Moreno or Donald Brown.

Pick 32 - Pittsburgh Steelers
Max Unger - OL, Oregon
Yes, they won the Super Bowl, but a line that didn't come together very well until the playoffs has come apart a bit in the off-season. So why not take a guy who can play just about any position on the O-line? Michael Oher would be another possibility, but I still like Unger's position flexibility better.

And there's the second version. What's your perspective?

As we all know, Jay Cutler is a Bear.

I didn't see it coming. I knew Chicago would have an interest in him, but I didn't think they would put together a big enough package to pull it off. I was wrong, and now they've made the moves to put themselves in serious contention this year and once again became a pretty dominate team in the NFC. They've still got bits they need to work on, but this will be huge for them. So... kudos.

But judging the value of Denver's side of the deal is difficult. The only sure part of it so far is Kyle Orton, who at best will compete with Chris Simms to start this year. Who they take in the draft this year and next is of more weight in trying to balance the scales.

Right now many people are seeing the Broncos draft a QB in the first round this year, and perhaps even attempting to move up to secure Sanchez. I've been wrong at every turn so far so I'm probably dooming them into doing it, but I really don't think that's the best move. Having a three horse race of QBs with questionable talent makes little sense, especially since next years draft class (in which we will also have two first rounders) seems to offer more at the position. Instead it is my deepest hope that they use the first two picks on defense.

Many are assuming the Broncos are now strictly in a rebuilding mode, but in a division as weak as the AFC West, winning is still an option. The Chiefs seem likely to be up and coming, the Raiders are a mess, and the Chargers are in decline. If the Broncos are to do well in that mix, it will require a major upgrade in defense and a QB who can at least prove himself adequate. Whoever is behind center will have the fortune of being behind an offensive line that gave up 12.5 sacks last year, throwing to a pretty dang good set of receivers (barring a ridiculous suspension of Brandon Marshall), and handing off to a series of pretty talented backs working in a proven run system.

More than anything, the systems installed here will have to be the key to success more than individual players. I really believe that if they can score strong talent at the DE, DT, and LB positions early in the draft, the defense can experience a major turn-around in little time. Already, free agent signings have gone a good distance to achieving that, especially in the defensive secondary. That being said, I can also see the Broncos using later picks on a blocking TE to place across from Daniel Grahm, and perhaps pulling in Pat White just in case (hey, he can help the depth at both QB and WR).

So how did the Broncos fair? Well, sad to say Denver fans will have to wait until the end of the month to be sure. At the moment, it's not a trade that I am thrilled with, but I'm also not too disappointed. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.