Well here we go with my 3rd Annual NBA Preview. I'd like to say I'm a year older and a year wiser in making my predictions, but you know that's not true. A 4 part preview as before: non-playoff teams in the West, West playoff teams, and then the same for the East. We start with the 7 teams who won't be making the postseason, and who's only solace is knowing that all those teams except the one from Portland would be in the playoffs if they were in that other conference. Seriously. The West is that loaded.

Scarily enough, I did some research this year on the 7 seasons leading up to this one, from 1999-2000 to 05-06. Here's some things to keep in mind about the Western Conference:
* only two teams have made the playoffs the last 7 years: one's the Spurs, and I bet you won't get the other one (they won't make the playoffs this year, and are somewhere in today's preview, so you've got some time to ponder that because this is going to get wordy!). 4 others have made it at least 5 times.
* Never have more than 3 teams made the playoffs when they didn't make it the previous year, but there was always at least 1 new team every year. What does that tell you? That there's certainly parity in basketball, but not to the extent of football, where almost half the playoff field changes from year-to-year. In basketball one player can dominate a game more than in any other pro team sport, so it's not suprising that teams with dominant players stand a good chance of making the playoffs for as long as that guy is dominant (well unless of course that guy is Kevin Garnett and your GM is incompetent).
* No team has had the conference's top record two years running.
* The Don Stern refused to get rid of his moronic 3 division conference format, but he at least tweaked it a little bit. Unlike last year, where the Nuggets had the 6th best record but got the 3rd seed because they won their division, this year the division winner is guaranteed no worse than 4th. So if two teams from the same division (oh like say Dallas and San Antonio) have the 2 best records, they will get the top 2 seeds.
* Just for a point of reference, here's how the team's finished last year:

WESTERN             W   L    PCT     GB
1. San Antonio*    63  19    0.768  0.0
2. Phoenix*           54  28    0.659  9.0
3. Denver*             44  38    0.537  19.0
4. Dallas                60  22    0.732  3.0
5. Memphis           49  33    0.598  14.0
6. L.A. Clippers     47  35    0.573  16.0
7. L.A. Lakers        45  37    0.549  18.0
8. Sacramento      44  38    0.537  19.0

9. Utah                     41 41    0.500  22.0
10. NO/Oklahoma 38  44    0.463 25.0
11. Seattle              35  47    0.427 28.0
12. Houston           34  48    0.415 29.0
13. Golden State   34  48    0.415 29.0
14. Minnesota       33  49    0.402  30.0
15. Portland           21  61    0.256 42.0

On with the preview then...

15. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS, Northwest Division (2005 record: 21-61)
Not sure how things get worse for Portland. They took one of the most passionate and loyal fanbases in the country and killed them with pot-smokin' gun-totin' dog-fightin' thugs who were much better at getting arrested than making the playoffs. Now owner Paul Allen is complaining about a horrible arena lease THAT HE WILLINGLY SIGNED, and wants to move the team. And the final straw was passing on Adam Morrison, a guy that would have actually brought fans back to the Rose Garden, for Lamarcus Aldrige, who I said last year and will continually say is soft and will make Sto Swift look consistent. The Brandon Roy pick was a good one, but they could have had him and Morrison. Just another day at the office for the Blazers.

14. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES, Northwest (33-49)
KG had a good year last year, and this team still only won 33 games. Now they're counting on Mike James, who magically came alive during his free-agent-to-be year, and a rookie in Randy Foye to help Garnett carry this team back to the playoffs? Really? Have I mentioned they have NOTHING in the post and a $34 million dollar European nothing at point guard? Garnett could have an MVP year, James could average similar numbers to last year and Foye could win rookie of the year and they're STILL not going to the playoffs. Minnesotans, catch KG while you can because he won't be here next year. But don't worry, Kevin McHale probably will be.

13. OKLAHOMA CITY SONICS, Northwest (35-47)
Poor Howard Schultz. The Starbucks founder and BILLIONAIRE just couldn't doop the fine folks of the Emerald City into building him a brand new arena. So what'd he do? Slammed down his triple espresso skim latte in a hissy fit and sold the team in a huff to buyers in Oklahoma that will move the team down there in 2007. Oh and poor Howard, the guy who claimed the team was hemorraging money in Key Arena, got $250 million more than he paid for the Sonics. Thanks for ruining my basketball team, Howard. What's left is a decent core with Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Wilcox, but there's not enough front-court depth to keep this team in the playoff hunt. It'll also be hard for the guys to concentrate when the new owners are telling the players "no no you'll LOVE Oklahoma! We've got wind and rodeos! And cows! And cowboy hats! You'll love them!" Oklahoma will make Utah look like Vegas in comparison.

12. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, Southwest (49-33)
No Pau Gasol for the first two months means no playoffs for the Grizz. Even I can do that math. But as will be mentioned 9,482,765 times between now and draft day 2007, this is one of the best drafts in decades, so it's not the worst year to take a one year hiatus from the playoffs. Oh and quick, can you name another Grizzly besides Gasol? Didn't think so. Mike Skinny Miller will keep bombing threes, and the transition year should give good experience for rooks Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowery. Definitely a team with a bright future...well as bright as can be for a team that will be owned by Dukie's Christian Laettner and Brian Davis. Who else is in that ownership group? Alaa Abdulnaby, Thomas Hill, and Cherokee Parks?

11. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS, Southwest (38-44)
Here begins the list of 11 playoff teams in the Western Conference. The problem for 3 of them is: they're only taking 8. The Hornets were last year's surprise team, right in the playoff hunt before losing 11 of 14 in March to knock themselves out of contention. A good young team saw some breakout years from power forward David West, and Rookie-of-the-Year point guard Chris Paul. Now with the big additions of small forward Peja Stojakovic and center Tyson Chandler, the Hornets should be all set to continue their rise into the playoffs right? Wrong. New Orleans played over their heads for most of the year, and came back to earth late in the season. Chris Paul will be an allstar, and David West will be solid, but there's still way too many holes in this lineup. Bobby Jackson won't be as good for this team as the departed Speedy Claxton was, and although Peja Stojakovic is a nice addition on the perimeter, he's not the player he used to be, and brings nothing else to the table besides shooting and a beard. Tyson Chandler? People are acting like the Hornest picked up the next Bill Russell. Please. The guy averaged 6 pts, 9 rebs, and 1.5 blks last year. He's a decent NBA center but not a guy who's going to propel you into the playoffs. THe Hornets are going in the right direction and should be around the 40 win mark, but they'll miss the playoffs this year.

10. SACRAMENTO KINGS, Pacific (44-38)
Here's your trivia answer: yes the Kings have made the playoffs every year of this century, but it looks like that nice run will come to an end in 2007. They've got all-star caliber players in C Brad Miller, PG Mike Bibby, PF Shareef Abdur-Raheem, and of course SF Ron-Ron Artest. A couple of problems in Cali's Capital though: 1st is Artest. I LOVE Ron-Ron when he decides to play, but the guy is a walking circus, and you just can't count on him to behave for 82 games. 2nd was letting Bonzi Wells go. Was he asking for too much? Yes, but who are they going to have replace him? Wells carried the Kings in the 1st round, and almost upset the Spurs. Now he's gone to Houston, and the Kings are going to try and replace him with Francisco Garcia, who's a nice role player, but not an NBA starter. The 3rd problem is depth-- the Kings don't have any, especially in the front court where they have Kenny Thomas in a rotation with Miller and Shareef- and that's it! Injuries or fatigue will take its toll here. The Kings will be around .500, but just out of the playoffs, meaning the Maloof brothers will have more time to spend at their casino in Vegas. Not that they need it.

9. UTAH JAZZ, Northwest (41-41)
I REALLY want to put this team in the playoffs, and in the weak Northwest Division, where it's basically just them and Denver, they've got a good chance. They won 41 games last year while only getting 33 games out of PF Carlos Boozer, using a rookie point guard, and missing their best shooter, Matt Harpring for most of the year. That rookie, Deron Williams, looked much improved by year's end, and Harpring should be back at full strength for the opener. They also added an athletic SG in the draft in Corey Brewer, who should help fill a gaping hole at the 2guard (well that's IF they can get coach Jerry Sloan to trust a rookie). And I haven't even mentioned the NBA's best defender, SF Andre Kirilenko, or underrated C Memet Okur. So what's holding the Jazz back? Let me put it this way: they make the WNBA look athletic, and in a conference that's getting faster and will be running more than ever, that's a problem. There's nothing wrong with slow, methodical, fundamental basketball (other than being painful to watch), and should get the Jazz at least back to .500, but they just don't have enough fire power to run and gun in the wild West this year.

Your Hometown 9, those fiesty, pesky, pirahnas, the scrappy, gutty Little-Engine-That-Could have picked up the $12 million option on centerfielder Torii Hunter's deal that will keep him in Minnesota for 2007. As Strib baseball scribe La Velle E. Neal explains according to the language in the deal, Twins GM Terry Ryan had 5 days from the end of the Twins season to exercise option, and he chose to do so. Both sides may come to an agreement on a long-term deal over the winter, but we now know Hunter will be roaming centerfield under the big white plastic bag for at least one more summer.

My take? Ahem, I'll need a moment here...to remove my rather large foot from my rather large mouth...hold on...it's WAY in there...in the meantime don't forget to check out the Fire Glen Mason site...ok almost got it...WHEW! There it is! Hey thanks for your patience. Still a piece of shoelace down there but I'll tough it out.

Ok then, this was a move Terry Ryan had to make. Had to. I've been Hunter's biggest detractor since I found out late last year that this $12 million option was a possibility for 2007. I just didn't see the point in overpaying a 31-year-old centerfielder who's a .268 lifetime hitter that had never hit 30 HR's in a season. I especially didn't see a point in overpaying for a team with Carl Scrooge Pohlad calling the shots. When you've got a very limited budget (Pohlad's one of the richest men in baseball with a team in a top 15 market, yet the payroll is not in the top 15. I'll keep mentioning this as long as I have to), it might not be wise to overspend on a #6 or 7 hitter in your order who's calling card, his defense, is going to start to slip as he approaches his mid-30's. I still think he's overpaid, but it was a move Ryan had to make. Torii's loved in the clubhouse and in the community, he busts his ass every day he's out there, and although his defensive skills will start to slide as gets older, he's still an excellent outfielder and nobody knows the, shall we say, "intricacies" of playing the outfield in the quirky Metrodome.

It helps that he had a career year at the age of 31, which to some makes this extension a no-brainer. Here's his 2006 stats compared to his career #'s:
AVG/OBP/SLG HR/RBI/R
2006 .278/.336/.490 31/98/86
career .269/.323/.463 21/76/72

As you can see, his numbers are up across the board, and his HR/RBI/Runs totals are WAY up! Unless you're a lefthanded-hitting outfielder in the Bay Area who magically gains 30 pounds of muscle and an increase of like 8 inches in your hat size, you're not going to get better as you get into your 30's. Torii's much more likely to regress closer to his career averages next year than hit 30 HR's and hit over .275 again. As a matter of fact I'm willing to bet on it:

Torii WILL NOT hit 30 HR's AND hit over .275 again next year!!!! Write it down!

All of this isn't to make myself feel better for saying all along they shouldn't sign him to a big extension (ok maybe a little bit), it's just to say that Terry Ryan didn't give him the extension just because of his numbers. THey certainly helped, but Ryan knows what he's got in Hunter, and the team and players know, which is why he's coming back. Keeping this nucleus together is important, and although Torii's overpaid for an aging #6 or #7 hitter, he'll probably look like a bargain compared to what Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee will get in free agency this year.

I'll delve further into the Twins offseason in the next few weeks, but for now, this was a good move by the Twins. I just hope they don't stop here in looking for more hitting. Now if you excuse me, I have to go dislodge that shoelace.

One helluva sports weekend. Let's get to it...

SAY IT AINT SO, JOE
New York Yankeess manager Joe Torre has won 4 World Series, more than any other active manager. He's won 1079 regular season games in his 11 years in the Bronx, that's an AVERAGE of 98 wins a year!!! Just think about that for a minute. He's great with his players and even better with the press, and yet today, Torre probably gets canned. Why? Because he hasn't won a title in 6 seasons. So it goes in New York.

I heard an explanation for why Torre's taking the fall today, and it was actually applied to Ty Willingham at Notre Dame (who, by the way, has my Washington Huskies at 4-2, and ALMOST pulled off the upset against USC). In college football, if you FEEL like a top 10 program (and feel's the key word there), then only a National Title will do. Ty Willingham's a good coach. I'm grinning ear-to-ear that he the Irish fired him, because he's going to do some good things at UDub. But ND felt like Willingham wasn't the best coach out there (Urban Meyer was. Remember that the next time a Golden Domer sings Weis' praises. He wasn't their first choice. Or 2nd. Or 3rd...Luck o' the Irish). Despite a very good record, both in the standings and academically, he wasn't in the title hunt every year, so he got the axe. Frank Solich averaged 9 wins a year at Nebraska and got fired. Ron Zook is the laughing stock of Gainesville. Know how many wins a year he averaged before the Gators pink-slipped him? 8. 90% of the college programs out there would kill for that. Not at Florida.

And the same applies for the Yankees. With the highest payroll in baseball, their goal is a World Series title. Every year. And because Torre hasn't won one in 6 years, they're going to find somebody else. Torre's the best manager in baseball, and Lou Piniella or whoever replaces him won't be as good. So it goes in New York.

THE LESSON HERE IS AS FOLLOWS:
1) Good Pitching Still Beats Good Hitting
The Yankees had the best hitting lineup ever. Ever. And they lost to Detroit. The Tigers pitching was awesome. Kenny Rogers had the game of his life, and maybe the most important game for the Tigers since 1984, with his win in game 2 in the Bronx. The Yankees pitching was suspect all year, and in the end it got them. Talk all you want about the Yankees payroll and that's why they won their 4 Titles. It also helped they had good starters and a lights out bullpen- something the Tigers seem to have now. And so do the A's. Should be a good series.

2) A-Rod will never, EVER win a World Series
I started saying this about 3 years ago, how A-Rod and Peyton Manning could go down as the greatest regular season performers ever in their sports- but they'll never win the Big One. With The Greatest Lineup In History around him, and no other Goliaths in the postseason, I thought A-Rod would prove me wrong this year. Nope. The guy just doesn't have "It". He just doesn't, and the Yankees know it now. Honest to goodness I think he gets moved in the offseason. I have no idea where he goes, but I think he will, for the same reason Torre's gone. He is the best player in baseball, but not in New York, and he hasn't produced AT ALL in the postseason. I know the Yanks are getting a good deal on his contract (Texas is STILL paying for a good chunk of it) but the guy was a huge distraction this year, and it seemed like he's lost the respect of some of this teammates. He proved this year he just can't handle the world's brightest media spotlight, and that he'd be better off being the game's highest paid player somewhere else. Where that somewhere else is, I don't know, but I'd be surprised if he's still in Pinstripes for spring training come March.

AT THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM FROM THE YANKEES IS...
your Minnesota Golden Gophers football team. What an awful, awful loss. Bad enough that the Gophers kicker misses an extra point (the Sports Guy has made this comment, and for good reason: with all the bloody soccer players in the world, and we can't find 119 guys to consistently make extra points and 35 yd field goals in college?!?!?), but what's worse is he should have been off the hook. That pass intereference call on 4th down against Trumaine Banks was just plain lying. THERE WAS NO PASS INTERFERENCE!!! I'm not sure when Jer will be able to rationally talk about this. His hatred for Mason may have just eclipsed mine for Kevin McHale. Since I wasn't born into the Wolves, I have the option of no longer following them to maintain my sanity. Jer? Not so much. Hang in there fella.

WHAT'S UGLIER?
Rosie O'Donnell in a bikini, or the Minnesota Vikings offense? GO GET JERRY PORTER! NOW! The Raiders season is finished and Porter, a big-play WR, can be had for pennies on the dollar. This offense stinks. Any defense can play the run AND the pass by simply bringing your safeties up 5 yards off the line of scrimmage. Why? Because Brad Johnson can't or won't throw it any farther than that. They have no weapons on offense. They've got less than 2 weeks to go get one before the trade deadline, or there'll be no playoffs for the Purple. By the way: that Buffalo team that beat the Vikes last week? Got demolished 40-7 by Chicago yesterday. Just keep that in mind.

With Twins Fever sweeping the nation, the Vikings scoring less than and the Gophers football season essentially over, you know what that means: it's NBA preview time!!! Sure nobody but me cares or is all that interested, but we're gearing up for the 2006-07 season that could be the most wideopen in decades. Literally. My 3rd annual NBA Preview is forth-coming, (click here and scroll down for 2004 and 2005) but first, some things you should know for the upcoming year...

THE MORE THINGS STAY THE SAME, THE MORE THEY CHANGE?
This was one of the most boring offseasons in memory. The free agent crop was weak, and the draft, although deep with decent players, provided no impact guys. When guys like Al Harrington or Peja Stojakovic switching teams are considered the big moves of the summer, you know there just wasn't much available. Honestly, I was going to give you the 5 biggest/most important offseason moves, but I could only find 3! The teams you saw last year won't look much different on opening night.

THE EAST IS MEDIOCRE-- AT BEST
Big Ben Wallace going to Chicago from Detroit was THE move of the offseason, but it actually made the conference worse, not better. East Coast fans will shout about how the East has won 2 of the last 3 titles, and they have the game's 2 best players in Lebron and DWade. While true, it can't hide how average the conference is, and once again how far behind the West they've fallen. Big Ben makes the Bulls better but it DOES NOT make them the favorites in the East (they're KG away from doing that). Losing Wallace in Detroit brings the Pistons back to the pack, now giving them no inside presence and still no bench. Miami got a year older, and since they were old to begin with, that means they got worse (and in Shaq's case, a LOT worse), so DWade is going to need the refs on his side more than ever to get the Heat back to the Finals.

THE WILD WILD WEST WILL BE JUST THAT
For the first time in a long time there's no dominant team. There's no preseason juggernaut like the Spurs of past years or the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. 14 of the 15 teams out here have legitimate postseason aspirations. Seriously. They break down like this:
FIGHTING FOR...
BEST RECORD: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix
THE 4th SEED: Houston, LA Clippers, LA Lakers
A PLAYOFF SPOT: Everbody else but Portland
Everybody's got issues, everbody's got flaws, so all the little things will make the biggest difference in who makes the playoffs out West. Oh and so does David Stern's stupid 3 division format, meaning SOMEBODY in the Northwest has to make the playoffs.

HOORAY REGULAR SEASON!
I can't tell you how I know this, but I do: the regular season should be the most fun to watch since the mid '80's. Stern's going to give hardcore basketball fans like me the run and gun beauty of how basketball should be played in the regular season. Thanks to Mike D'Antoni, Steve Nash, and the Phoenix Suns, the point guard, play-making and the fast break has become relevant again. With the success of Dallas' wide-open attack, more teams will be going that route this season, including Toronto, Milwaukee, and Chicago out East. With only one true dominant center left in the game (surprise! It's Yao, not Shaq), teams are finally realizing that putting their best 5 guys on the floor and going is a recipe for success. Well at least until the postseason, that is...

BOO CREEPY 1-ON-5 BASKETBALL
Because when the playoffs roll around we're going back to the 1-on-5 basketball we saw Miami play last year. Stern knows that superstars still drive his ratings. High scoring basketball is all well and good but for average or casual fans to watch in the playoffs, Stern knows you need DWade or Shaq or Lebron or Kobe. And he'll get them. Wade and King James will be parading to the free-throw stripe like the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. The East is so watered down this year, I am GUARANTEEING either Miami or Cleveland goes to the Finals this year. That's right, you're getting an iron-clad MWSR guarantee. Wade and Lebron are two megawatt stars on average teams. In the West they'd be fighting to get in, but in the East they'll be battling for a spot in the Finals. Actually, do you want me to ruin the ending, and tell you who'll be representing the East? Hint: he'll be assuming the throne as the "King" of the NBA.

ONE PLAYER COULD DECIDE THE 2007 NBA CHAMP
That one guy would be Mr. Kevin Garnett. Although the Wolves have a playoff shot because of their division, a LOT has to go right for them to have a chance, and I just don't see all of it coming together. For KG's sake, hopefully he realizes that this is his best year to win a championship somewhere else. This coming summer there'll be plenty of free agents and impact kids in the draft so the NBA landscape will look dramatically different a year from now. Wolves VP Kevin McHale is too gutless to deal Garnett because it will prove what most of already know: McHale's tenure running the Wolves has been a complete failure. He's had 11 seasons to put a quality team around his Garnett and he hasn't done it. They're further away from a championship now than when Garnett came to the Wolves in '95. So he'll hang onto his superstar until he forces his way out. IF KG forces a trade by the deadline, teams will line up with offers because in a wide-open season, a player of Garnett's caliber could vault a ton of teams into the Finals. The Bulls are the most obvious example, as he's the perfect fit there AND they have the draft picks/young players/cap room to make it work. KG in Chicago automatically makes them the best team in the East. Still, I see McHale locking himself in his North Oaks mansion until season's end, his eyes closed and hands over his ears, pretending the KG era in Minnesota isn't over. It is, and if KG forces a trade by the deadline, it's going to make this wide-open year even more exciting.

Do we even need to review the Vikings or Gophers losses? If you read this site Friday, you'd have known it was going to happen. The Gophs season is essentially over, and if the Vikings don't find a way to get some offensive touchdowns, there's could be as well. But the Twins? My goodness the Twins!

This just feels like the year of destiny, doesn't it? I've been sitting here all morning trying to rationalize their strengths and weaknesses, but what this team has done and is still capable of doing defies logic. There's really no other way to say it. Tied with the Tiggers going into the weekend, I would have said a Gopher win over Michigan was more probable than the Tigers getting swept by the Royals, a team I pointed out on Friday (as did everybody else) that were just OWNED by Detroit. And yet it happened. The Twins took 2 of 3 from a White Sox team that had to feel like it was playing in the Twilight Zone instead of the Metrodome. They had a playoff team down there on the SouthSide, and a team that on paper was better than the Twins or Tigers, yet they'll be watching the playoffs from home instead of defending their title. And I think that's the point: it takes more than talent to win a World Series. You have to have luck and chemistry, and since June the Twins have had a ton of both.

The chemistry, with the "Smell those Runs" campaign started by backup catcher Mike Redmond, is the best in baseball. Seeing them on the field after the game, watching the Jumbotron to await the DEtwah/KC finish, they just looked like a team of guys that really liked each other and really got along. The Yankees are unquestionably the best team in the postseason. That shouldn't be argued by anyone. They have flaws, sure, but that offense alone is enough to overcome any pitching woes they have. But don't they seem like a bunch of hired guns forced to work together? Like every guy there wants to win for himself (well other than Jeter), not for the other guys in the room? Sure there's an "I" in Minnesota, but there's also t-e-a-m!
And that's what gives your hometown 9 as good a chance as anybody to win their first World Series since 1991.

Now back to logic. DO NOT, for one second, take this Oakland team lightly! I know the Twins won't, but I worry there's a lot of fans out there who are already dreaming about a Twins/Yankees ALCS (let's be honest, if the Tiggers take a game, I'd be surprised. I won't bore you with the breakdown but they don't match up well at all with the Yankees. Not that anyone does, but you know). Don't. Worry about the guys in Green and Gold first, because they're a very good team and have been just as hot as the Twins down the stretch. This is a Billy Beane "Moneyball" team to a tee: solid pitching, good defenders, and patient hitters. Their lineup doesn't get much respect (then again neither does the Twins outside the Land O' Lakes), and the only offensive category they're better than MInnesota in is homeruns (and this isn't exactly the Reggie Jackson A's of the 1970's or the Steroid Boys of McGwire and Canseco), but they've still got some veteran hitters that can hurt you.

The Twins have baseball's best bullpen (scroll halfway down this column by Jason Stark to see other teams raving about the Twins pen), but the A's have starting pitching, something the Twins are very thin on. Both clubs fit the "Little Engine that Could" tag, so it should be a great series, but the A's don't have Santana, Mauer, Morneausy (who, by the way, was sporting a Todd Bertuzzi Vancouver Canucks t-shirt during postgame fesitivities. Kind of brings a tear to the eye watching the local kid), or any ability to "Smell those Runs" so the Twins get the edge.

HOWEVER, Minnesota has to win the opener tomorrow. Let me repeat that: they HAVE TO WIN THE OPENER. And just because Santana's on the hill tomorrow, doesn't make Game 1 a gimme. Zito is not only a lefty, which makes it tough on Mauer and Morneau, but he's also a soft-tosser, which seems to give the Twins fits this year (see Redman, Mark as an example). As Buster Olney points out in his blog (I'd link to it but if you don't have Insider there's no point), if Zito gets the fastball over for strikes early, he's going to make life difficult on Twins hitters because his big curveball, maybe baseball's best, becomes almost unhittable.

The pen will be the key here, and as Olney also points out, not only is the Twins pen better, but the A's don't have a lefty to neutralize the M&M Boys. If the Twins can get to Zito early, or at least battle him and get him out by the 5th or 6th, their chances look pretty good.

OF course as this Twins team proved over the weekend, they don't worry too much about logic or matchups or strengths and weaknesses: they just go out and win. And they're 11 more away from a World Series Title, no matter how improbable that may seem.