San Francisco 9 Minnesota 3
I'm guessing you've already heard or read everything there is to say about this game, or thought it yourself, but let me add this thought:
Benching Brad Johnson is not the answer to the offensive woes. Yes he's turned the ball over 6 times in the last 2 games, and the team has scored a grand total of 7 offensive TD's (Johnson has thrown 4, Mewelde Moore and Ryan Longwell have each thrown one- I'm counting the Longwell TD as a special teams TD- and Chester Taylor has ran for 2 more scores) in 8 games. It's brutal, and I'm not sure with the '85 Bears defense that the Vikings would be a Super Bowl team. But pulling Brad Johnson means you're announcing to your fans and the league that the Vikings 2006 season is over. Period. It'd be one thing if the receiving core was making spectacular catches, or even routine catches, but they haven't. We saw again yesterday that even when Johnson makes the right read or throw, the receivers aren't coming through for him. Brooks Bollinger or Tavaris Jackson are not going to make this team better than Brad Johnson can, and with the Bears and Rams as the only winning teams left on the schedule, Johnson can keep you in the playoff hunt.

What I hope this season will do for coach Brad Childress is make him realize you need more than just his scheme to score points and win. Most coaches have that sense of arrogance that their scheme is the key, and that you can plug just about anybody into it and it'll be productive. Hey this idea works if you're New England with Tom Brady or Chili's former employer in Philly with Donovan McNabb, but you've got to have a good QB to make it happen. And you also need receivers that will catch the ball, and this year Minnesota has neither. You could get by with Johnson if the receivers were catching, but they're not and so the offense continually stalls in the red zone. I hope this makes Childress realize that he needs a good quarterback, and a couple of playmakers at wideout next year. If they get them, the Vikes are right there. For this season? We're probably in store for more ugly games like yesterday, but hopefully the Vikes will come out on the right end of it.

Indianapolis 27, New England 20
In his MMQB column, Peter King made some points I agree with about the Colts win over New England, and one big one I don't. Here's what I agreed with...
* That the Colts are clearly the best team in football right now (duh!)
* That the Colts won't go 16-0 (yes their sched is favorable, but as the Bears showed yesterday, anything's possible. THey'll lose at least once, and I think probably twice when they're resting their starters in week 17, before the playoffs)
* That Peyton Manning is the playing better than any QB in the league (a resounding yes to that one)

But what I disagreed with was this...
"But I would like to put that annoying he-can't-win-the-big-one story to bed."
Seriously I couldn't disagree more. Peyton has been the best REGULAR SEASON quarterback for at least the last 3 years. And yet every year his team loses in the playoffs. Last night's win over New England proved they were a better team than the Patriots right now- but I don't see how it proves he's ready to "win the Big One". Last year, with homefield throughout and the Patriots knocked out by Denver, was Indy's best chance for a Super Bowl, and they didn't even make it out of the conference. This certainly COULD be the year Peyton drops the "Alex Rodriguez of Football" tag, but no matter how well he plays in the regular season, we're not going to know the answer until February 4th in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. If the Colts make it there AND they win it, THEN and only the "annoying he-can't-win-the-big-one story to bed."

Miami 31, Chicago 13
This game shows the Bears are mortal, but the team's 6 turnovers shows that this could be more than just overlooking the Fish. We'll find out plenty about Da Bears in the next 3 weeks as they travel to the Meadowlands to play the Giants, and Jets, and then to Foxboro to play the Patriots. Contenders or pretenders? We'll know by Thanksgiving weekend. This loss also means we can start talking about the GIants, Philly, Carolina and a host of other NFC teams as having a legit Super Bowl aspirations. My pick, as it was to start the year, is still Carolina, but things as it stands now are pretty wide open.

Just in time for the season opener tonight, here's the final installment of my NBA Preview. Happy Halloween everybody!

8. Boston Celtics, Atlantic (33-49)
Over/Under 36.5 wins: OVER
The C's are young and they don't have a great coach, but Paul Pierce will be an allstar again, rookie PG Rajon Rondo has the makings of a star (as well as a new Boston cult hero), and this COULD be the year Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins finally put it all together. Or most of it. Or some of it. Hey come on, it's the East. They've got enough to get in. I'd say something nice about Wally Szczerbiak, but you know I'm not capable of it.

7. Detroit Pistons, Central (64-18)
Over/Under 50.5 wins: WAY UNDER
No I'm not kidding, no I'm not drinking as I type this, and yes this prediction would make me less popular in Detroit than Matt Millen (and yes this would be assuming anybody reads this hahaha). The Pistons lost Ben Wallace who was the one guy they couldn't afford to lose, and I can't believe more people aren't making a bigger deal of this. Let's see, the guy was your leader, your best defensive player, one of the league's best rebounders AND set the tone for everybody else by being tough and unselfish on a team that relied heavily on him to do all of those things. He was also the glue that kept Ra-weed Wallace in check, allowing him to free lance and play pressure-free (how do people forget what a complete and total space-cadet the guy was in Portland? That Ra-weed will resurface this season. I guarantee it). People also seem to forget that what made DEtroit great was their CHEMISTRY!! As individuals none of them were high draft picks or all-NBA type guys, but together they were truly one of the league's best teams. Now their heart and soul is gone, and I'm telling you, that's a REALLY BIG DEAL! Nazr Mohammed doesn't fit their style at all and does not provide a defensive presence in the middle (the guy couldn't beat out Rasho Nesterovic last year in San Antonio for pete's sake), so the team's best players are all guys who want to play on the perimeter and there's nobody left to rebound or do the dirty work on the inside.

Oh but that's not all. Big Ben ripped coach Flip Saunders apart on his way out of town, and there's a mutiny on the horizon here. These guys, who had won a title without Flipnosis, were quick to point the finger at him at the first signs of trouble last year. Why'd they not make it back to the Finals last year? Because of Flip they said. Well they'll be more trouble this year, and the players will be throwing all the blame at Flip's feet. Add to this the FACTS that the Pistons have been extrememly fortunate when it's come to injuries during their run (they've had ZERO to their key guys. That will change), and that they have no depth whatsoever (honestly after McDyess, who in their bench rotation is decent? Anyone?) this spells a recipe for well, maybe not disaster, but there's no way Detwah gets anywhere close to 50 wins this year. None. In a watered-down East they're still a playoff team, but the end of the Pistons run is here. Call me a Pistons-hater, but this is how it will happen.

6. Indiana Pacers, Central (41-41)
Over/Under 43.5 wins: OVER
2 of the following 3 things will happen for the Pacers this year: Al Harrington will make a big splash in his return to Indy, Jermaine O'Neal makes a big return from being chronically injured, and Stephen Jackson will try to stop shooting people. IF 2 of those 3 go right, this is definitely a playoff team. Not to mention more PT and maturity for 2nd year forward Danny Granger, and as little reliance as possible on Jamaal Tinsley would also be a good thing.

5. Orlando Magic, Southeast (36-46)
Over/Under 38.5 wins: WAY OVER
Yeah I have a man-cruch on Dwight Howard. Deal with it. The New Moses Malone will add more offense to his already stellar game, and we might even see more from Darko this year than just waving a towel on the bench and giving awkward hi-5's to guys as they're coming off the court. Grant Hill might be healthy (ok so his chances of being healthy are as good as Horatio Sans chances of leaving SNL and being a movie star), and Jameer Nelson will continue the rebirth of the point guard in the NBA. What's Orlando missing? Vince Carter, that's what. This is the best team in the East with Vince. Where will he go in free agency next summer? Probably Charlotte. Too bad.

4. New Jersey Nets, Atlantic (49-33)
Over/Under 46.5 wins: OVER
Just not sure about this team. I think Jason Kidd's play will drop this year, and although Marcus Williams has looked good in preseason, is he really ready to handle a lot of NBA minutes? We'll see. Richard Jefferson is consistent (well as long as he's not playing for Team USA that is), and Vinsanity's in a contract year, so he should be a monster. Still they have little to nothing in the post, and still no real depth coming off the bench. All of that should be good for an easy division title in the worst division in the league, but I'm not even sure they get out of the first round.

3. Miami Heat, Southeast (52-30)
Over/Under 51 wins: UNDER
Well I've already pissed off Pistons fans, so why not continue with Heat fans too? Although really everyday in Miami it's 80, sunny, there's a nice beach, there's a lot of pretty plastic girls down there, AND your team are the defending champs, so how upset can you really get as a Heat fan? They had the perfect storm to win it last year, where EVERYTHING (including the commish's office demanding Dallas be called for fouls on DWade as soon as he got of bed in the morning) went right for them. This year? Yeah not so much. The only 3 guys you can really count on doing more of what they did last year are Wade, Udonis Haslem and James Posey. Everybody else is a wildcard heading into the season. GP and Zo were running on fumes last year, so I'm not sure how much they contribute this season- and remember, it was Payton not Jason Williams, who was getting the crunchtime minutes in the playoffs. JWill and Employee #8 played nicey-nice to get a ring, but I have a hard time believing they'll buy in again. And Shaq? He might as well wear a Hawaiian shirt for a jersey and sip mai tai's during timeouts (I got a maitai but I ordered a margarita. And I asked for no salt. NO SALT but there were big grains of salt on the rim). What else does the man have to prove? More importantly, what else does the man WANT to prove? History shows dominant centers DO NOT get better once they hit their early 30's, especially 7'1, 350 pound former dominant centers who haven't been in shape for the regular season the past 4+ years, got his title without Kobe, and has a nice fat contract in one of the countries coolest cities. You tell me, what does Shaq have left to prove? Heat fans will be lucky to see him repeat last year's averages of 20 pts and 9.2 boards a night. I hope DWade was working on his shoulders in the offseason, because he's going to be carrying this team all year.

2. Chicago Bulls, Central (41-41)
Over/Under 48.5 wins: OVER
See here's an example of where chemistry matters, and where when everybody buys in, they're a pretty damn good team. I think the Bulls are clearly behind Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix in the West (and maybe the Clips and Lakers too for that matter), but in the East they should be fighting for top spot. This was already a hungry scrappy team that played solid fundamental basketball (and yet were somehow strangely enjoyable to watch), and now they get a guy in Ben Wallace who does more of those things. Big Ben's got a chip the size of the Hancock Tower on his shoulder, and the rest of the Bulls think they should have beat Miami in the opening round series last year, so motivation will not be an issue. These guys will run, D up, and will win 50+ games. They're still missing a go-to scorer (although I think in the right circumstances Ben Gordon can be that guy), or at least a go-to post scorer, but even if they don't make a move at the deadline, they'll be in the hunt for the Finals. Well at least until the semi's or conference finals when suddenly anytime a guy in a Bulls uniform so much as thinks about breathing they call a foul on him and send Lebron or DWade to the line. But hey until then, enjoy Bulls basketball.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers, (50-32)
Over/Under 49 wins: OVER
This isn't as much about Lebron, as it is his supporting cast. Here's a list of things that went right for the Cavs last year: Lebron and Side Show Bob. A list of things that went wrong: everything else. AND THEY STILL WON 50 FREAKING GAMES!!!! And in a tougher conference last year with better teams!! We know Lebron will be better (which might be the scariest thought of any this Halloween. I mean good gawd, how good can this kid be?!?!) and his teammates can't be any worse. THeir big free agent signings last year were all terrible. Larry hughes because of injury and Damon Jones because of well, maybe he was worried more about his fashion sense than shooting %. I don't know, but he was awful. Donyell Marshall? No explanation either but he was unwatchable. Drew Gooden was mostly hurt or mostly inconsistent and Big Z's main contributions were a neck beard and looking European (and by the way, I STILL think they should have moved him in the offseason. He does not fit their style at all, takes touches away from Lebron, and well, did you see the guy's playoff neckbeard? Cavs fans were getting trapped in it on his way to and from the locker room! It was a travesty. A Sham-trave-mockery!) So Lebron will be better, his team will be better, and with homecourt advantage and Stern and the refs on their side throughout the playoffs, I don't see how the Cavs aren't in the NBA Finals this season.

When Denver kicker Jason Elam booted a field goal to tie the game with 1:47 left in the 4th quarter, my roommate Kris and I looked at each other and said "Too much time." The cameras then panned to the sideline showing Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning standing with offensive coordinator Tom Moore. And honestly? They could have been two guys standing beside a grill in the tailgate lot or by the water cooler, or at their kids' baseball game. They were calm and cool and confident as could be. They were faced with one of the most difficult things to do in sports- the 2 minute drill- and they had no doubts they would get it done. None. It wasn't a question of WOULD they be able to get into field goal range, it was more deciding which way to do it this time? Something different to spice it up maybe? I could have sworn I saw Manning say "too much time!"

Giving Manning 1:47 to set up a game-winning field goal with all 3 timeouts? It just wasn't fair, and anybody watching knew it. SHouldn't there be a new rule (for regular season games only, of course) that Manning should only be given under a minute and 1 timeout, just to make it interesting? But the NFL allowed him to keep all that time and all those timeouts and Manning surgically ripped the heart out of the Broncos in one of the toughest venues to win in sports: Mile High at night. A dump pass here, and handoff there (a handoff!! See now that's just getting cocky), and then a couple of passes to Reggie Wayne (he of the 3 TD day who abused poor Bronch CB Derrant Williams all game) and they were in range. IT was bad enough that you knew Manning would get them in position, but to have the greatest clutch kicker in history jogging off the sidelines to seal it? And of course he did. Colts win again, and remain undefeated.

Manning looked like the best QB who ever lived in that game, and yet last night proved for me yet again that Tom Brady is still the best. BRady did what he's rarely allowed to do in the Patriots team-first system, which was go out of the shotgun and pick teams apart. Last night it was a good Vikings D he carved up (at another time we'll delve into why Belichek IS the best coach in the game. With 2 good running backs he could have tried to pound the ball against a good run D. Instead? He airs it out all game long. Even up 24-7 in the 3rd, he continued to let Brady go shotgun, and Brady continued to complete passes. Anyway, another story for another time but just wanted to mention it). We're so quick these days to want to name everything the best or worst ever, to name instant greatness when one of the hallmarks of greatness is of course longevity and consistency, two measures that can't be judged or granted instantly. But we continue to make the ridiculous comparisons, like one of the guys in NBC's Sunday Night Broadcast saying with a straight face that new Cowboys QB Tony Romo reminded him so much of BRett Favre. And Joe Montana. Really? Why leave out Roger Staubach, Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas? Ridiculous.

But for all the overhype we have to endure, the Brady/Manning rivalry is every bit as good as Montana/Marino was. Manning with the gawdy stats and the playoff failures, and Brady with the 3 Super Bowl rings. These 2 teams play Sunday Night on NBC (thank god it's not on E!SPN) and you're going to get these 2 guys shoved down your throat for the next 5 days, but no matter how much they overhype it, these two are the real deal: and nobody else is even close. That more than anything is what I took away from their two impressive performances, that as bad and mediocre as NFL quarterbacks are these days, Brady and Manning are head and shoulders better than anybody else (sit down Mr. Favre. Sit down). I would still take Brady over Manning 7 days a week and twice on Sundays. I still need to see Manning get to the Super Bowl to put him ahead of Brady. I think Manning will take Marino's place as the greatest statistical quarterback in history, but like Marino I don't think he wins a Super Bowl. I'd like to be proven wrong because it would only enhance the rivalry, and let's be honest, after last year's gawd-awful Steelers/Seahawks Super Bowl, we NEED somebody like the Colts in there to give it some juice.

Manning does have more talent around him than Marino ever did (just the fact alone that he's had a running game around him), and I wonder if Manning's slowly learning from what happened to Marino and Montana, and now Brady. After his incredible record-setting 2004 season when his Colts still fell flat in the playoffs, I think the light went on for Peyton. Marino tried all those years to win it by himself and it never happened. But I think he looks at Montana and BRady, who are great when they need to be, but don't have to put up the gawdy stats, and is starting to take a page from them. Will he throw more than Brady will or Montana did? Absolutely, and with that arsenal of receivers, he should. But Manning's proved the last couple years that he's willing to put his ego and big passing numbers aside to win ugly if that's what it takes, because a win's a win no matter how you get it- especially in the playoffs. I think Manning's taking what the defenses give him more than ever, and like Brady, can turn it on and take over when need be. If he had Vinatieri kicking for him last year against the Steelers instead of "The Drunk Kicker" we be talking about him as a Super Bowl champ instead of doing another A-Rod impression. Look no further than the Broncos game for an example. He was 14-17 for just 132 yards and no TD's in the first half. The game was close and Manning was taking what he was given. IN the 2nd half he decided to make Derant Williams his personal biatch, throwing again and again to Reggie Wayne. It resulted in the Colts victory.

Am I openly cheering for Goliath, for Peyton, for the guy that's being shoved down our throats as the new Face of the NFL? I am. For the sake of good and watchable football in an age of inconsistency and mediocrity, I'm dying for a juggernaut and a dynasty and a rivalry. The folks at E!SPN and other outlets are doing everything possible to make us believe in contrived rivalries and "great" players, but there's nothing forced about the Pats and Colts. Contrasting styles meeting twice a year (hopefully anyways) to battle for football supremacy. Can Peyton shake the "A-Rod of football" tag? Can Brady continue to be the best quarterback on the planet? We'll get a glimpse of it this Sunday night, and I know I'll be watching, because in today's NFL, it's Brady, Manning...and everbody else.

If the National League is being called AAAA baseball (and of course an 83 win team from the Senior Circuit looks primed to win the World Series) in the NBA what do we call the East? The NBDL II? NBDL Sr? NCAAA? Unlike the West, where there are at least 3 elite teams, there's not one here. Not one. And yes Heat and Piston fans, I realize that both Miami and Detwah are still in the conference. Let me say again: NOT ONE SINGLE ELITE TEAM IN THE EAST!!! But somebody has to win it, and chances are that one of those somebodies will win the NBA Title. Why? Because of the 1-on-5 playoff factor and that the East has two of the best players in the league in Lebron James and Dwyane Wade and David Stern and the refs LOVE superstars. Just love 'em. Mark it down, one of those two gentlemen will be in the Finals. You'll have to wait till tomorrow to find out which one. First, the non-playoff teams in the East (and by the way, according to my calculations if we seeded the playoffs as the 16 best teams in the league regardless of conference, the NBDL2 would get 4 teams, maybe 5. Seriously.)

As an added bonus for the NBDLEast preview, I'll be throwing in each team's Vegas win projections for the upcoming season. The idea here is to pick the over or under for how many wins Vegas predicts a team will get. Who doesn't LOVE playing the Over/UNder game? Exactly! Keep in mind Vegas sets odds and projections like this to get as much action as possible on both the overs AND unders for each team. So for example the defending NBA Champion Miami Heat are predicted to win 51 games. The Vegas wiseguys might not necessarily believe Miami will win 51 games this year, that's just the number they think will get the most people betting on both sides. Remember, Vegas makes money by you losing money.

Two from the East that really surprised me: Detroit at 50.5 and Cleveland at 49. Let's just say that if I were a betting man, I'd be betting the farm on the over for one and the under for the other. You'll find out soon enough which one's which. And oh by the way, no team in the league was predicted to win 60 games. Miami was predicted to win the most in the East at 51, and in the West Dallas had the most at 56, with Phoenix and San Antonio right behind at 55.5. Alright on with it then!

15. Atlanta Hawks, Southeast Division (2005 record 26-56)
Over/Under 28.5 wins: UNDER
I mean, what can you say about the Hawks? Well other than more people in Atlanta would show up to hear Gilbert Gottfried read the phone book than watch a Hawks game. It's that bad. They had a great trading chip in Al Harrington. He was the only young-allstar-caliber player available this summer, and what did the ATL get for him? Draft picks, and considering that lately they've used draft picks on Shelden Williams and guys not named Chris Paul, that's not a good sign. And before all 4 Hawks fans who still give a damn start saying they've got the best chance to win the Greg Oden sweepstakes, let me say this: the worst team never gets the 1st pick (see every draft since 2000 when the Nets got KMart) and even if you DID get the 1st pick with your luck Oden would either go back to school or more likely, come out and the Hawks would draft another small forward. Draft time for Hawks fans, or really just being a Hawks fan, must be a lot like Will Hunting getting a beating from his foster dad: he'd just lay out a wrench, a belt, or Gilbert Godfried and say choose. I think Gilbert's supposed to be reading at the Barnes & Noble in Buckhead on Thursday! Go Hawks!

14. Philadelphia 76ers, Atlantic (38-44)
Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER
In one of the most intriguing races in decades, we're now essentially down to 2. What race is that you ask? Why who can be the most incompetent NBA GM the longest of course! It's been a 4 horse race for awhile, but Isiah Thomas in NYC and Billy Knight in Hotlanta should be out of jobs by this time next year. That leaves us with Minnesota's Kevin McHale (and believe me, my money's on him) and Philly's Billy King. It's hard to choose right now, really. Both men have done an excellent job of putting the most over-paid non-talented players around a superstar, and both have made some awful trades, but McHale really excels when it comes to drafting. His draft record is uglier than me in a speedo. Knight's strength is killing his cap with a ballooning payroll, which at $94 million, is 2nd highest in the league. Sure he could have dealt Allen Iverson this summer for relief and a chance to start over, but why ruin a good thing? Not when you've got Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver locked in until 2036. Chris Webber? He's owed $43 million over the next 2 years. And hey to top it all off, King is paying almost $18 million this season to Jamal Mashburn and Todd McCulloch, two guys who've been out of the NBA for years! Yes it's a race that should go right down to the finish folks, so don't miss it! For Sixers fans, um yeah, you might want to miss it.

13. Toronto Raptors, Atlantic (27-55)
Over/Under 34 wins: UNDER
Sorry but I'm just not buying the Raptors hype. I know Bryan Colangelo helped put together that fiesty Phoenix Suns squad, and that now the Raptors are supposed to be Phoenix East (well except for the difference in climate, currency, and number of times somebody will yell "take off eh!" when you knock over their beer). Although I think Bryan's on the right track and the team could be better, last time I checked the Raps don't have Steve Nash. Or Shawn Marion. Or Amare Stoudamire. Or Raja Bell, Barbosa, or the rest of the Suns roster. Is Chris Bosh one of the game's most underrated players? Definitely, and Bargnani should be a good rookie. But otherwise there's just not much talent here, and even in the NCAAA that's not going to be good enough. And TJ Ford? Yes he's quick and likes to run, but he can't shoot, doesn't pass as well as Nash (nobody does but just throwing it out there) and he breaks easier than a soda cracker. They're going in the right direction and Colangelo will have them in the playoffs soon enough, but not this year.

12. Charlotte Bobcats, Southeast (26-56)
Over/Under 32.5 wins: OVER
Speaking of teams that are going in the right direction, the Bobs (or the Shats. Yeah I like the Shats better) have amassed some good young talent and could put together a nice season. They don't have anyone as good as Bosh, but with Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Ray Felton, and Adam Morrison they not only have the college allstars, but a young nucleus that will make some noise this year. And don't forget about the league's most underrated player, Gerald Wallace. I think these kids will be 10 wins better (think about it: they won 26 last year with Okafor and May out for most of the year. Wallace had to play center!!) at least, but with youth comes inexperience. Morrison will be the scorer they've craved, but for all the game-winners and big baskets he'll score, he'll have some 2-11 shooting nights too. Ray Felton could be an allstar this year, and May and Okafor are a formidable low-post combo. If they can find a solid veteran leader (i.e. NOT Vince Carter) and add one more lottery pick next offseason this is a dangerous team for 2007, and one that at the very least will be fun to watch for 2006- if you're not blinded by the blaze-orange jerseys first. Good lord those things are uglier than Morrison's stache.

11. New York Knicks, Atlantic (23-59)
Over/Under 31 wins: OVER
What would I do if I coached the Knicks this year (obviously I'm not qualified because I haven't bankrupted a semi-pro league and decimated a Canadian basketball franchise, as well as America'a most storied one, but bear with me)? I'd give half my roster the "Tim Thomas": last year the Bulls sent Thomas home. They told the guy they've got no room for somebody with his attitude and sent him home (again Clippers fans, THIS is the guy you'll be seeing at Staples Center. Not the one from the playoffs last year. I'm not sayin I'm just sayin). Marbury, Francis, Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor, and Jerome James- send them all home. Curry, and Crawford,you're on notice. Channing Frye, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, REnaldo Balman and Nate Robinson are your future, and the further you keep the cancers away from these kids, the better. And I know, I know I KNOW!!! Knick fans wouldn't stand for it. Well let me tell you something: ALL those guys I'd send home are "Me First" guys, and no matter how talented they are, they're not taking you to the playoffs because they refuse to play together. PLay them all and you're not going to the playoffs. Send them home and you're not going to the playoffs but your young guys get better. You tell me which option is better. And I don't believe for one second The Cancers will rally around Isiah. No way. They're getting huge guaranteed dollars. That's all they care about. If they didn't rally last year, they won't do it this year. But since Isiah brough in all the Me Firsts, they'll play and they'll probably get close to 40 wins and the playoffs, but not close enough.

10. Washington Wizards, Southeast (42-40)
Over/Under 39.5 wins: UNDER
DO NOT doubt Gilbert Arenas. Not for a second. The man loves revenge more than Chuck Norris, Rambo and Max Cady combined. Last year the East coaches didn't vote him as an allstar reserve, so he spent the 2nd half of the season putting on camoflauge and a red bandana and made it his personal mission to make those coaches pay for what they did to him in Nam! Now he got cut by Team USA this past summer. Who's on his revenge list? USA Hoops director Jerry Colangelo? Coach K? Every player on the roster? Try every damn person who gets in his way, that's who! You think you're better than Gilbert? You think Gilbert's not good enough? You think Gilbert's going to take this! You'll get what's coming to you! And you'll get it good!!!
Too bad the rest of the guys on the Wiz don't care this much. If they did they might be a playoff team. In the meantime Colangelo, Coach K and hell every single one of you better watch your back! Gilbert says you'll pay!

9. Milwaukee Bucks, Central (40-42)
Over/Under 40.5 wins: UNDER
Have I mentioned I'm really starting to like Milwaukee? A great baseball town (whose team needs to go back to the old jerseys), good beer, lots of brats, grown men wearing mustaches like it's 1973, hell there's even a river running through town out to Lake Michigan. It's really growing on me. I just wish I could say the same for the Bucks. The jerseys are new and yet old at the same time, and really that's Bucks basketball for you. They've got the big white center (or BWC as I like to call them. A Bucks staple. Somewhere Brad Lohaus and Frank Brickowski are smiling), no stars, and a bunch of guys who hustle and do all the little things- well except Charlie Villaneuva who is as new to the concept of effort as Katie Holmes is to the idea of "natural birthing." I think he's accepting the idea about as well too. Oh and just for spice the Bucks have registered sex offender Rueben Patterson too. Does he have to walk around to every fan at every game and tell them his name and what's he done? Ok that was just mean. Sorry, not enough beer or brats this morning. I get cranky like that. I have no other real analysis (why start now?) here. The Bucks will be good, but not good enough to make the playoffs.

8. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, Pacific Division (05-06 record: 34-48)
This is all Don Nelson- well ok mostly Don Nelson. He's won here before and has won everywhere he's been, and this current Warriors team will respect that. I still haven't figured out why teams don't just hire a psychologist as their coach, and then get some assistants to do the X's and O's stuff. I mean, NBA coaching is 90% babysitting and 10% X's and O's. EVERYBODY in the league is talented, it's just a matter of chemistry and getting millionaires with guaranteed contracts to give a sh*t every night. Why couldn't you hire a guy with a psych degree (a basketball background would be preferred but not mandatory), and give him an assistant coach with a name like "Wex Tinters" and Wex could come up with some crazy offense with a shape name like "The Octagon" or "The Rectangle" or maybe even "The Triangle". Then Psych Coach can coddle and baby all the players and Wex tells him all the plays to run. Just make sure Psych and Wex go to a team with 2-previously-uncoachable superstars. I think this combo could be worth, what- 8? Maybe 9 championships? Just a thought.

7. LA CLIPPERS, Pacific (47-35)
I think the Arizona Cardinals choked against the Bears MOnday NIght because really, what would happen to the planet if the Clips make the playoffs 2 straight years AND the Cardinals start looking functional? Would the sky turn red and rain frogs? Would the seas boil? Would Jessica Simpson become intelligent? I just don't think the world's ready for the Clips AND Cards to be good. I have trouble believing the Clips will equal their 47 wins from a year ago. Yes they should get a whole season out of Corey Magette, Chris Kaman is a good center, and Shaun Livingston (if the kid would ever learn to shoot) could be the conference's breakout player. But Elton Brand can't possibly duplicate last year's MVP-like numbers, Sam Cassell will be the unmotivated "non-contract-year" Sam Cassell (and oh by the way he's 37), Cuttino Mobley's already 31, and they replaced the outside shooting of Vlad Radmonovic with Tim Thomas. Chances of seeing the Tim Thomas from the postseason instead of the one that he's been the rest of his career with a fat contract? Let's just say the Royals are going to the World Series before that happens.

6. LA LAKERS, Pacific (45-37)
I don't particularly like Kobe Bryant, and apparently I'm not alone. I read in Sports Illustrated's NBA preview issue (I needed something to do on my lunchbreak) that Kobe has the 6th highest "negative Q" rating in all of sports (the top 5? Barry Bonds, Terrell Owens, Ron Artest, Peyton Manning and Bode Miller. OK I made Peyton up because I couldn't think of the 5th one). Before being very unsurprised that Kobe was on this list, I wondered who voted on this and why have I not seen this kind of thing before? I don't read SI's print copies much anymore, so maybe I missed this, but did they publish a whole list of who has the highest and lowest Q ratings? Because THAT'S a list I'd want to see! Anyway, despite my dislike for Kobe I still believe he's the best all-around player in the league (if Lebron wants that title he'd better start playing D), and that he alone is worth a playoff spot. Surround him with a good 2nd banana in Lamar Odom and a developing supporting cast, and this will be a VERY feisty team come playoff time.

5. HOUSTON ROCKETS, Southwest (34-48)
Why aren't more people talking about the Curse of Tracy McGrady? The guy goes to Orlando along with Grant Hill and they look to be a dynasty in the making. Of course Hill's foot explodes while T-Mac carries the team for a few years, and he finally forces a trade to a contender with another superstar, Yao Ming. Another dynasty in the making, right? Of course not. T-Mac's back becomes worse than Rockstar Supernova and the Rockets limp to a spot in the lottery. So do things finally change this year? I just don't see it. Sure, IF T-Mac's healthy for all 82 and Yao plays like a house-a-fire (and stays healthy), this could be the best team in the West. But bad backs are like annoying ex's- they just don't go away, and I can't see McGrady playing more than 65. The Battier addition was good (I'd like to tell you they'll regret trading Rudy Gay but I can't. He'll either be great or a journeyman. THere's no in between), and Bonzi was a steal, but I'm still not sure they have enough shooting, a point guard, or depth for if/when McGrady goes down.

4. DENVER NUGGETS, Northwest (44-38)
Ok ok I'll admit it: I have a man-crush on Carmelo Anthony. He's my favorite player in the league to watch right now, and I think he makes the superstar-leap this year. In the only Timberwolves game I attended last year, I watched him torch the Wolves for 30, including the game-winner on an impossible fade-away 3 from the corner. I STILL believe he's more Bernard King than Glenn Robinson. I do agree with the pundits who said that his dominance in the World Championships this summer was due to the fact his game translates better to the international game than the NBA. However, I also think that experience and further bonding with Bronbron and Dwade will get the competitive fire burning more than ever. Wade's got a title. Lebron looks on the cusp. Melo does not want to be left behind. The Nuggs division title hopes rest largely on other factors however: one is low-post health. For Marcus Camby (used to be mentioned in the same sentence as Fred Taylor and Grant Hill when it came to frailness) and Nene (missed all of last year with knee injury) it's physical health. For Kenyon Martin, it's mental. The other factor is getting something- ANYTHING!- out of the shooting guard spot. The Nuggs may have stole JR Smith from the Bulls. I say MAY because the kid has the talent to be a star, but he hasn't proven yet he's got the desire. This is where Melo's leadership will be needed more than ever.

3. PHOENIX SUNS, Pacific (54-28)
One of these days I'll have to delve into "The Curse of the Power Forward." Think about it, starting with Lenny Bias' death we've seen at least 4 transcendent talents at power forward fizzle in the L: Bias, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, and Shawn Kemp. All had ridiculous game but for one reason or another they never lived up to their mountainous potential. I'm worried we could be adding Amare Stoudamire to that list soon. "Micro-fracture surgery" has become the scariest phrase in basketball, especially for a guy like Amare who depends so much on explosiveness. The guy who before his surgery I had rated as one of the top 3 guys in the league I'd start a team around, now is fighting just to play again. Personally, I think Stoudamire never fully returns to his pre-injury form. For Phoenix, even if they get Amare at 80% of what he was, they're the best team in the league. However, I don't think you're going to get even 80% of him for a full 82 games. Not only will he be trying to work his knee back in shape, you're now trying to work a guy back into your offense that needs the ball. With 2-time MVP Stevie Nash (seriously that's STILL surreal to type- and keep in mind I'm Canadian, you hosers!) running the show, sharing shouldn't be a problem, but it's the small stuff like this that can tweak a team's chemistry just enough to change things. If Amare's back to 80% by the end of the year, this is the favorite come playoff time, but I have my doubts that happens this year- or ever. The other thing working against Phoenix? Nash cut his hair. Has he not heard the story of Sampson?

2. SAN ANTONIO SPURS, Southwest (63-19)
Honestly, I've got them in 2nd only because of the "nobody's had the conference's best record 2 years in a row" thing. Tim Duncan had an "off" year by his standards, Manu was never quite himself, and Big Shot Bob's age might have finally caught up with him. And they STILL won 63 games!!!! Duncan will have a monster comeback, Manu will be feisty and annoying as ever, and I'm sure teams will inexplicably continue to guard Tony Parker like he has a jumpshot (even though he obviously doesn't), allowing him to drive and slash and dish and score. I hate the Spurs, but this is my pick to win the whole thing- which means another boring, methodical NBA Finals. Oh well, at least it will mean plenty of shots of Eva Longoria. Mmmmmmmmm hi Eva.

1. DALLAS MAVERICKS, Southwest (60-22)
Well we'll definitely see what Dirk Diggler Nowitzki is made of now. He finally broke the Euro-stereotype of disappearing in the playoffs- well at least until the Finals. Dirk became human against the Heat, and that (well besides the fact the Mavs were getting called for fouls on Dwyane Wade the moment they got off the bus) was one of the main reasons a title eluded the Mavs. How do they respond? Will the be as fiery as ever? With the Little General Avery Johnson, I say yes. They resigned Jason Terry, which was HUGE for their chemistry, and these guys know what to expect now from each other and from a long playoff run. Dirk will be in the MVP-running again, Devin Harris SHOULD become a bigger factor, and with another deep bench the Mavs will have no shortage of scorers. By the way, LOVE the Maurice Ager pick. The Mavs are too deep for him to be in the rookie-of-the-year conversation, but he'll still be one of the league's best rooks from day 1. Still, I think the Spurs will be just a bit better when they meet in the conference finals.