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Richard Petty Motorsports needs a sponsor for A.J. Allmendinger's #44 after the first eight races. Hopefully they are tuned into the truth of their situation - there is almost NO way A.J. is going to be out of the top-35 after Bristol. Las Vegas qualifying pretty much sealed the deal on it.
Why should they know that, after only two races?
We know that the cut-off for making the top-35 after five races is roughly 350 owner points. Last year Jamie McMurray had 352 points after five races and was 36th, just four points behind Sam Hornish. In 2007, 350 points was roughly half-way between 35th (365 points) and 36th (331 points). Going further back, it holds true - if you were going to establish a "target" for a GOGH car, it would be 350 points after five races.
We also know it is EXCEEDINGLY difficult for a GOGH team to miss a start and make the top-35. Last year, no cars missed one of the first five races and were locked in after Bristol. In 2007, Joe Nemechek finished 9th, 14th, and 17th in his three best starts, had a DNF and a DNQ, but was solidly in the field in 26th. (Unfortunately, shortly his Bobby Ginn-owned team would shut down, but that's another story.) Johnny Sauter also made the top-35 with a DNQ - barely - thanks to a 16th and an 18th-place finish. If you can get a couple of top-20 finishes, you can afford to miss a race.
A.J. Allmendinger finished third at Daytona - that's worth 165 points, almost half-way to 350 on the strength of one finish. Right now he is sitting on 241 points, so if he just makes the field the next two races (he is in for Sunday), and finishes last all three races, he will have 343 points. If he finishes 30th in two races and misses the show for the third - he would be at 387 points PLUS whatever points he got for the race he DNQed. (NASCAR gives owners points to the DNQ cars, too.)
Another thing in A.J.'s and RPM's favor is that the GOGH cars are really taking each other out this year. After Las Vegas qualifying, only Tony Stewart's #39 and A.J.'s #44 have made all three races from outside the top-35. Part-time teams from Hendrick Motorsports, Germain Racing, and Furniture Row Racing made the field this week, knocking out Tommy Baldwin's #36, Doug Yates' #28, and Jeremy Mayfield's #41, who had all made the first two races on speed.
So - A.J. - you're IN. Tell that team of yours to put the numbers in some sponsor's face and get 'em to sign up for 2009! (And then don't wreck in qualifying.)
Here is the OWNER points after Las Vegas qualifying - ADJ. PTS. is the post-qualifying total, with 34 given to each qualifier (the reward for finishing 43rd) and the points given to the DNQs. 210 points should be the benchmark for 35th after three races. Cars in RED are GOGHers.
RK # OWNER POINTS STARTS ADJ. PTS. FOR 210
4 14 MARGARET HAAS 14 294 2 328 43rd
13 44 GEORGE GILLETT, JR 44 241 2 275 43rd
26 83 DIETRICH MATESCHITZ 83 180 2 214 43rd
27 5 MARY HENDRICK 5 168 2 202 40th
28 26 GEOFF SMITH 26 167 2 201 40th
29 77 BILL DAVIS 77 161 2 195 38th
30 28 JEFF MOORAD 28 146 2 177 DNQ
31 31 RICHARD CHILDRESS 31 146 2 180 33rd
32 36 TOMMY BALDWIN 36 143 2 159 DNQ
33 39 TONY STEWART 39 134 2 168 29th
34 7 ROBBY GORDON 7 134 2 168 29th
35 88 RICK HENDRICK 88 133 2 167 28th
36 8 CHIP GANASSI 8 131 2 165 28th
37 66 PHIL PARSONS 66 128 2 156 DNQ
38 20 JOE GIBBS 20 119 2 153 24th
39 41 JEREMY MAYFIELD 41 104 2 126 DNQ
40 98 MAX JONES 98 101 2 135 18th
41 78 BARNEY VISSER 78 100 1 134 17th
42 82 DIETRICH MATESCHITZ 82 98 2 132 17th
44 171 KEVIN BUCKLER 171 83 1 117 12th
45 187 ANDREA NEMECHEK 187 65 1 99 7th
46 37 BRAD JENKINS 37 44 0 57 DNQ
47 09 JAMES FINCH 09 44 0 63 DNQ
48 73 BARRY HAEFELE 73 35 0 57 DNQ
49 64 LARRY GUNSELMAN 64 32 0 66 1st
50 51 DAVID BEAN 51 29 0 39 DNQ
*Hendrick Motorsports #25 and Germain Racing's #13 made the Las Vegas race in their first attempts of 2009, so they have no points until Sunday.
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