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ESPN.com is running a fantastic series call Ancient Chaseology, where they went through the seasons from 1975-2003 to see what impact the Chase format would have had on the championship. Unfortunately (IMO) they minimized the amount of time they spent looking at the actual seasons. (This makes sense because as NASCAR's broadcast partner it wouldn't exactly be smart business to show NASCAR in a poor light.) It did get me curious to see how their final "Chase-d up" standings looked with the actual ones.
Now, for the purposes of this comparison it's important to note that the point of the Chase was to put drama in the last race of the season. Therefore, really a 100-point difference isn't a whole lot different than a 400-pont difference, because there is very little chance a driver is going to make up a 100-point difference in the final race (it's mever happened). For example, in 1975 Richard Petty won the Winston Cup by 722 points, while using the scoring reset from the Chase he won by over 200 points, anyway. That's not really doing what NASCAR wanted with the Chase when the last race of the season is irrelevant, is it? That gets a "same".
ACTUAL CHASE
1975 -722 -219 SAME
1976 -195 -125 SAME
1977 -386 -179 SAME
1978 -474 -55 BETTER
NASCAR gets their first "better" here. Cale Yarborough had a 173-point reduced to ten points over Darrell Waltrip at the start of the Chase. Cale won five races to take the championship, while DW won only one but had nine top-fives in ten races to finish second. Bobby Allison won three Chase races to finish third by 81 points, he finished second in reality, almost 500 points behind Yarborough.
1979 -11 -13 SAME
1980 -19 -14 SAME
1981 -53 -153 WORSE
1982 -72 -202 WORSE
1983 -47 -24 SAME
1984 -65 -25 SAME
People, this is SIX years in a row of finishes that came down to the last race. No Chase necessary here, right? Not only that, two of these years were made MUCH worse by the Chase, with DW winning five Chase races in 1981 (including four in a row) and 1982.
1985 -101 -62 BETTER
1986 -288 -129 SAME
1987 -489 -41 BETTER
I struggled to give NASCAR a "better" in 1985, but at least at 60 points there is more hope that at 101 points. Dale Earnhardt's 1987 gets a lot closer when Bill Elliott wins three of the last four races, only to come up short in the Chase a la Jimmie Johnson in 2004.
1988 -24 -65 SAME
1989 -12 -97 WORSE
1990 -26 -114 WORSE
1991 -195 -162 SAME
1992 -10 -79 WORSE
1993 -80 -234 WORSE
Five times in six years NASCAR's championship is separated by 80 points, including four by 26 or less. Note that in all those seasons the Chase would have made the gap to second WIDER.
1994 -444 -156 SAME
1995 -34 -106 WORSE
1996 -37 -69 SAME
1997 -14 -104 WORSE
1998 -364 -329 SAME
1999 -201 -119 SAME
I'm starting to question how far back NASCAR went with these numbers...
2000 -265 -79 BETTER
2001 -349 -12 BETTER
2002 -38 -64 SAME
2003 -90 -48 BETTER
Oh.
All-in-all, I came up with three "better"-s before 2000. THREE! Did anyone - you know - LOOK at this stuff before creating the Chase? I know the last four championships have been pretty close, but every year from 1979 to 1984 had a close championship finish, and the same thing happened eight times from 1988 to 1997.
I think the biggest indictment of the obvious lack of thought NASCAR put into the Chase is this stat.
FINISHES SEPARATED BY 100 POINTS OR MORE (1975-1999)
No Chase: 11
With Chase: 14
Um - HELLO?! That's MORE wide finishes, not less! I mean, how long would it have taken to figure THAT out? I got six better Chase seasons than actual seasons out of 29. And NINE worse ones. So, I think we can safely dispel any myth that NASCAR created a method more likely to get a close championship than they had in place already. (What I would give to see Kyle Busch win the championship by 329 points THIS year.)
I give NASCAR due credit where they've earned it on the Chase. Richmond and the races leading up to it seem a LOT more important than they used to be. People are more in tune with the top-15 or so drivers duirng the season than they used to, IMO. Those are GOOD things.
However, NASCAR hasn't had a driver lose the championship in the last race since 1992. Before that it had only happened ONCE before - in 1979. The common denominator through all those seasons has been the general points system used from race-to-race. Maybe NASCAR should have considered THAT before they decided the Chase was the way to try to guarantee close championship finishes?
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