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I got a comment on my post the other day to the effect of "finally we have a good Race to the Chase", and I thought, really? I felt like I remembered all of the Richmond races having SOME level of drama, and we've had big-time drivers miss the Chase nearly every year. This year's Race to the Chase SEEMS really close, but is it any closer than in previous years? I thought I'd break it down.
Note: I think Jeff Gordon is IN the Chase, and he is 166 points above 12th-place right now, so I'm making the cut-off for Chase spots that appeared to be clinched at 150 points above the cut-off for that season.
2004 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 4
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 5
The first Chase for the Nextel Cup. Nobody really knew going in what to expect, including NASCAR, who had that silly 400-point cut-off built as though it was even possible. (Over the last five seasons, being 400 points behind the leader would put you no worse than NINTH in the standings with five races to go.) At this point, there was major star-power locked into the Chase, with Jimmie Johnson (seeking his first title), Jeff Gordon (looking for #5 and coming off Indy win #4), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (in his finest season), Tony Stewart (the '02 champ), and Matt Kenseth (the defending champ) in the top-five in the standings. Elliott Sadler, fresh off a third-place run at the Brickyard, was sixth in points and 163 points clear of 11th.
Behind those six guys was a real dogfight. Kurt Busch was seventh in points, 104 ahead of rookie Kasey Kahne in 11th. Between them were Bobby Labonte driving a Joe Gibbs Chevrolet, Kevin Harvick, and Ryan Newman in the last Chase spot. Right behind Kasey (and I mean RIGHT behind) was his Evernham Motorsports teammate, Jeremy Mayfield, just one point back. 1999 series champion Dale Jarrett was 55 points out of the Chase in his Robert Yates Racing Ford, and he had just finished second at the Brickyard. Jamie McMurray was 109 points out of the Chase in his Ganassi Dodge, and Mark Martin sat 15th, 123 points out of the Chase.
2005 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 4
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 4
After 2004's extremely close fight to make the Chase, 2005 brought a different sort of wild lead-up to Richmond. A couple of familiar names were atop the standings - Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson, but Greg Biffle's breakout season had him in third-place, and Rusty Wallace had a rebound year that saw him move from 17th in the standings after Indy '04 to fourth in '05. Kurt Busch was well-positioned to defend his '04 title from fifth-place, and Mark Martin was sixth.
The next group of drivers was an interesting mix of younger drivers and veterans. Ryan Newman was seventh, followed by Jeremy Mayfield, Dale Jarrett, and Carl Edwards, who was in his first full season for Roush Racing. The guys trying to get from the outside-in were led by Jamie McMurray in 11th, Elliott Sadler in 12th, and Kevin Harvick in 13th.
However, none of the drivers I've mentioned were the REAL story of the RttC '05. Notice who I HAVEN'T mentioned yet? Jeff Gordon was mired in 14th in points, 87 behind Edwards, but he was in MUCH better shape than Matt Kenseth, who was 158 points out of the Chase. And if Kenseth barely had a pulse, what did that say for Dale Earnhardt Jr., himself 23 points behind Kenseth?
2006 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 5 out of 10
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 5
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
I should put an asterisk of something by the "clinched" drivers for 2006. Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth were WAY out in front in points, but third-place Jeff Burton was only 174 points above 11th, and Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick were tied for fourth, 158 points above 11th. Behind them were five drivers separated by 100 points - Mark Martin, rookie Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Gordon and Junior were trying to make the Chase after failing to qualify in 2005, and Stewart found himself just 44 points above the cut-off to make the Chase while trying to defend his 2005 championship.
They were not lacking for talented drivers trying to Chase them down, either. Kasey Kahne and Greg Biffle, each trying to make their second Chase, were 11th and 12th in points, with Kasey only 37 points behind Junior for 10th. However, there were no other drivers within shouting distance of the Chase - Kurt Busch was next in 13th, 164 points back, and Carl Edwards was 14th, out by 232 points.
Of course, we all remember what happened - Kasey finished third at Richmond and knocked Tony out of the Chase. In response to seeing Gordon, Junior, and Smoke all miss the Chase in a two-year span, NASCAR expanded the Chase to twelve drivers, and in response to Tony's three race wins during the Chase, NASCAR changed the seeding in the Chase as well.
2007 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 10 out of 12
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 2
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
Last year's RttC? Not an all-timer, let's just put it that way. Jeff Gordon was out in front by a country-mile (366 points!) and the top group of drivers had pulled away, leaving essentially a three-man race for two Chase spots. The only redeeming thing about the '07 RttC was that the third guy in line was Dale Earnhardt Jr., whose repeated expired motors placed him 13th in points after Pocono, seven behind Kurt Busch and 45 points behind his Dale Earnhardt Inc.-teammate Martin Truex Jr. Junior's pending move from DEI made it more interesting, but it didn't make the competition any better and ultimately, and fittingly, Junior's motor blew up again at Richmond, putting Bowyer and Busch in the Chase.
2008 - after 21 races
Chase spots "clinched": 6 out of 12
Drivers <150 points ABOVE the cut-off: 6
Drivers <150 points BELOW the cut-off: 2
The 2008 RttC at this point most closely resembles the 2006 version, with six drivers bunched tightly above the cut-line and only two drivers really within striking distance. None of the drivers currently in the top-12 would be in their first Chase if they qualify, so it is a fairly veteran group. Tony Stewart is in ninth, just as he was with five races remaining in 2006 when he (cue ominous music) missed the Chase. Matt Kenseth is 13th, 11 points out of the Chase in his bid to join Jimmie Johnson as the only drivers to qualify for all five Chases. And David Ragan is 14th, quietly lurking only 56 points out of the Chase. Drivers have come from further back to make the Chase twice, and Ragan has put together a very Clint Bowyer-in-'07-ish season, with only four top-five finishes and seven top-tens, but only two DNFs.
I guess after looking at it, I'd say we're not looking at the BEST Race to the Chase EVER or anything, but at least we seem to have some serious potential for drama over the next five weeks. Of course, after the nearly foregone conclusion of last season, it was going to be hard NOT to improve the Race to the Chase in 2008.
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