The USA is in South Africa.
No real surprise, of course, even if the uneven nature of the American performance is a real cause for concern.
You can say exactly the same thing about Mexico, whose rebound from a poor start may be as much of a mirage as the perceived worries about U.S. prospects next summer.
Truth is that qualifying is long, long slog, especially for the favorites. There's no point in being the best team in 2009 when the actual prime time is 2010.
Remember back when it all started and Brazil limped out of the gate. There were calls for Dunga's job. This morning, I'd bet most folks rank Brazil as the 2010 favorite with -- surprise! -- England, Germany, Italy and either Ivory Coast or Ghana considered the best bets for next summer. The Africans deserve the high respect both because of their quality and the home advantage they will possess.
In fact, if you look across the entire spectrum of FIFA World Cup qualifying it's hard to find many real shockers. Perhaps the arrival of North Korea, back in the finals for the first time since that remarkable 1966 team which stunned everybody with its performance, is the best story of the past two years, but for the most part the old boys are where they were expected to be.
The result in Honduras means that the United States has nothing at stake Wednesday night but that doesn't make it a dead game. Costa Rica and Honduras are still fighting for third place and automatic qualification. That means the Ticos must get something out of Washington, D.C. to be sure that they avoid two more games against a South American team, perhaps Argentina.
You cannot expect the U.S. to take any risks with injured or tired players at RFK Stadium, but I'd also be very surprised if the Americans don't come out with a solid effort. Not everything is admirable about America's romance with sports, but one thing we can take pride in is always competing seriously and playing to win.
Honduran fans can have some hopes as long as their bunch takes care of biz in El Salvador.

None of them may be your idea of a potential playoff juggernaut, but with two games left in the regular season there are four MLS wannabees with everything to play for.
Houston, Chivas, Los Angeles and defending champ Columbus are already safely in the post-season while it would appear that Chicago, Seattle and Colorado will join them.
That leaves one spot which could go to FC Dallas, DC United, New England, or Toronto. TFC may have tossed its post-season away when allowing a last-minute equalizer Saturday but there has been nothing especially predictable about the four teams over the past month.
New England is best-placed simply because they are two points ahead of the other three. They finish against Chicago (home) and Columbus (away). That's a tough assignment, especially since the Fire has not actually clinched its spot.
DC United has reeled down the stretch: they host the Crew Saturday, then go to Kansas City,
FC Dallas is home to Colorado, another team that has not actually clinched, then plays at Seattle.
Toronto is home against RSL and away to the Red Bulls, two teams going nowhere. They need wins and help after this weekend’s miserable draw.

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First up: For those of you who cannot see the USA-Honduras match live at your local bar (click the link for an article explaining the mess and where to see the games) FSC is here to help. We will be carrying LIVE play-by-play text of the game action as it happens on our website, as well as taking your comments and questions at halftime. Log on here when the game kicks off. This link also should work for your mobile device and we will also offer goal flashes and major news via @championsonfox, our Twitter service.

---

Some big weekend World Cup games, of course [see the television slate below] but there is another FIFA event hitting high gear this weekend as the World Youth Cup for Under-20 players reaches the quarterfinal stage in Egypt.
    Today's games match South Korea against Ghana (10:30 a.m. Eastern) and Italy against Hungary (2 p.m.) while the Saturday pairings are Brazil vs. Germany (10 a.m.) and Costa Rica vs. the United Arab Emirates (2:00 p.m.). All of them are available on ESPN360.com.
    Thanks to the way the pairings broke. the tournament is certain to have an unusual semifinal lineup. Costa Rica, for example, only advanced to the second round because they scored one more group stage goal than did the United States after both teams lost two of three in the first round. Costa Rica began the tournament getting walloped 5-0 by Brazil but will reach the last four with a victory over the UAE.
    The UAE is the real outsider, West Asian teams not have fared especially well at any level in FIFA events. Their win over Venezuela in the second round was earned and deserved, especially since the South Americans jumped ahead quickly.
    The showpiece of the quarterfinals would appear to be Brazil's match against Germany. The Brazilians have been the most attractive side in the tournament with an enviable attack, but they have also looked rather loose at the back. The Germans staged a comeback to kayo Nigeria in stoppage time although down to 10 men in their second round clash Wednesday night.
    The all-European battle between Italy and Hungary is noteworthy not for the appearance of the Azzurri, who always grow in strength through a tournament, but for the Hungarians finally making a splash after so many years outside the top ranks.
    South Korea could be the program which has shown the most growth in recent years. They appear to have finally taken the step beyond being hard-working: this is a team which finishes effectively and shows little of the frailty which has often afflicted Korean teams at all levels.
    Ghana has always done well in youth events and has finally translated that into back-to-back World Cup finals appearances. They will start favorites in their match with the Koreans but it should be a balanced match between two very strong sides.
    The main lesson from this event really isn't about the teams -- we told you before it started that the World Youth Cup throws off misleading projections about players and teams -- but surely about the venue.
    It's the first of three straight FIFA events on African soil, ahead of the U17 in Nigeria later this year and the big show in South Africa next summer. There were four African teams in the field and all four reached the knockout stage.
    If you take that as significant, remember that there will be six African qualifiers for the World Cup -- don't be surprised if at least five advance to the second round at the expense of some favorites. Yes, there will be a continental home advantage.


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TV: (All times EDT; our picks in bold)
TODAY
U20WC: Korea v Ghana    1030    ESPN360
U20WC: Italy v Hungary    1400    ESPN360

SATURDAY (All WCQ’s or friendlies unless otherwise noted)
U20WC: Brazil v Germany        1030    ESPN360/Galavision
Russia v Germany        1100    Setanta
Bahrain v New Zealand    1130    FSC
Armenia v Spain        1200    FSE
Ukraine v England        1215    PPV
Denmark v Sweden        1400    FSE
Liechtenstein v Azerbaijan    1400    ESPN360
U20WC: UAE v Costa Rica    1400    ESPN360/Galavision
Czechs v Poland        1430    Dish
Greece v Latvia        1430    Dish
France v Faroes        1500    FSC
Portugal v Hungary        1545    Setanta
Ireland v Italy            1600    Dish
TFC v SJ            1600    CBC/DK
Argentina v Peru        1800    Dish/PPV
Colombia v Chile        1800    Dish/PPV
Ecuador v Uruguay        1800    Dish/PPV
Venezuela v Paraguay        1800    Dish/PPV
Mexico v El Salvador        1800    Telemundo
Revs v Crew            1930    FSC/FSE
Honduras v USA        2200    bit.ly/39WU3c
Costa Rica v T&T        2200    TBA
Chivas v KCW        2230    DK

SUNDAY
Bolivia v Brazil        1600    Dish/PPV
San Luis v Atlante        1700    Univision

    A World Cup without France? Could happen.
    How about Germany failing to qualify? It's possible.
    And will the South African fans be truly pleased if Cristiano Ronaldo is watching their big show from some beach resort rather than kicking a ball for Portugal next summer?
    These are among the issues that will be decided over the next four rounds of UEFA qualifying, the two this week which will complete the group stages in Europe and the playoffs for the final four spots to be determined in November.

    Start with the game of the week.  It's in Moscow Saturday where Russia and Germany clash with Group IV leadership at stake. The Germans will start with a one point lead, but defeat could send them into the playoffs and who knows what might happen then. Guus Hiddink has a remarkable World Cup qualifying and finals record, having taken both Australia and South Korea much farther than expected. He's got a much higher level of talent now so you can imagine German fans aren't relishing this upcoming game.
    No matter what happens Saturday, both face another fixture next Wednesday. Germany hosts Finland while Russia will wrap up its campaign at Azerbaijan.

    The fate of the French will almost certainly be decided in the playoffs. They start the final rounds four points behind Serbia, which can clinch its place in South Africa by defeating Romania at home on Saturday. France has the Faroe Islands and Austria as its final two opponents and can make sure of second place by defeating the Faroes Saturday. Should Serbia slip, they would have another chance to win Group VII at Lithuania on Oct. 14.

    Here's quick look at all of the UEFA Groups:
    I: Denmark has a three-point lead on Sweden, whom they host Saturday in Copenhagen. Portugal and Hungary are tied for third, two points back of the Swedes, and meet each other Saturday in Portugal. If the Danes and Portuguese win it's odds-on that the Portuguese would at least finish second because they wrap up their campaign at home against Malta on Wednesday. All bets are off if Sweden wins in Denmark. That would make their final home game against Albania and the Danes' home game against Hungary a straight battle for first and could leave Portugal on the outside no matter how they finish.
    II: Switzerland leads Greece and Latvia by three points and finishes at Luxembourg Saturday, then home against Israel on Wednesday. If they win out they will qualify. Greece and Latvia face each other Saturday with the playoff spot likely at stake.
    III: Slovakia is five points ahead of Slovenia and can wrap up the group with a win when they meet on Saturday. Northern Ireland is tried for second with the Slovenes and will be hoping for a Slovakian win. That would keep the playoff spot open 'til the final night when Slovenia goes to San Marino and Northern Ireland visits the Czech Republic. Oh yes, the Czechs host Poland Saturday and could jump about both the Slovenes and the Irish with a win and a Slovenian loss. Then it would the Czechs' controlling their fate against Northern Ireland. Obviously, plenty to play for here.
    IV: This one is down to Germany and Russia [see above]
    V: Spain has already qualified.
    Second place is between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey with the Bosnians able to control their destiny in Estonia on Saturday. Failure in Estonia would open the door for the Turks because the finale for the Bosnians is at home against unbeaten Spain. Turkey is at Belgium Saturday and finishes at home against Armenia, but needs all kinds of help to see the playoffs.
    VI: England has qualified.
    The big one here is Saturday's England visit to Ukraine. The home team must win to p**** Croatia in the battle for second. The Croats start two points ahead, but they are idle on Saturday. If Ukraine can win, they would then head to Andorra on Wednesday in second place. Croatia finishes at Kazakhstan on Wednesday.
    VII: This is Serbia's section to lose [see above]
    VIII: Italy has a four-point edge on the Republic of Ireland as they travel to Dublin for a Saturday match. A draw -- do the Italians ever play for draws? -- will be enough to get the defending World Cup winners safely into the last 32. Irish eyes must surely be fixed on second place. They are five points clear of Bulgaria and have another home game, against Montenegro next Wednesday, should they need points that night to be sure.
    IX: Holland qualified and Norway finished second in this already-finished section. The Norwegians are hoping they get a sniff at the playoffs, but that's down to the slide rules and tie-breakers when all of the second place teams are known. Only eight runners-up go forward and the chance remains that Norway won't be one of them.

END BLOG FOR THURS 8 OCT

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    Our World Cup week preview continues today with a look at the situation in South America where the obvious big story is the fate of Argentina, but that's not the only possible historic outcome as this 18-game qualifying grind comes to a close.
    Yes, imagining a World Cup without Diego Maradona and Argentina is quite remarkable. Come to think of it, imagining a World Cup with Maradona front and center for the media is also remarkable.
    But if you are Venezuelan, the big story this weekend whether your team can finally qualify for the finals. It's the only South American nation that has never reached the highest level of the world game but remains one of five nations on a huge bubble as the final two rounds get started. This is also the finest Venezuelan national team we've ever seen.

    Let's take care of the simple facts first:
    Brazil and Paraguay have qualified.
    Chile needs a win to qualify directly, a point to make sure it finishes no worse than fifth and enters a playoff with the CONCACAF fourth place finisher.
    Brazil and Paraguay hold the fate of Venezuela in their grasp. Paraguay goes to Venezuela on Saturday, then Venezuela finishes its fixtures at Brazil on Wednesday. Two Venezuelan wins would put them on 27 points and almost surely would get them a top-5 finish. It's possible, maybe more so because their opponents have nothing to play for.

    But it's almost impossible sort out the permutations among the five teams chasing three places.
    Starting Saturday you have Ecuador on 23 points and in fourth place. Argentina has 22 followed by Uruguay and Venezuela (21) and Colombia (20). All can still qualify.
    The fixtures provide some serious head-to-head stuff, too.
    Saturday it's Chile at Colombia and Uruguay at Ecuador. Argentina is home to Peru, already eliminated.
    Wednesday offers Paraguay vs. Colombia, Chile vs. Ecuador, Uruguay vs. Argentina and that Brazil vs. Venezuela match.   
    Obviously, Ecuador and Argentina control their own fate. Both can make certain of finishing no worse than fifth by winning their final games. The three below them all need to win and get some help somewhere else.
    It's far too complicated to even bother speculating on what can happen.
    Just sit back and enjoy it.

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     Another World Cup qualifying double round starts this weekend. After Wednesday, Oct. 14, only the Africa, which will have one round remaining, and the playoffs will be left to determine the field for South Africa.
    We'll take the next three days to preview what's at stake around the world.
    This morning it's Africa and the Asia/Oceania playoff.

    In Africa one spot has already been decided, Ghana qualifying out of Group D.
    By Saturday night the Cote d'Ivoire should join them, needing only a point off a visit to Malawi to wrap up the spot from Group E. If Malawi upsets the Ivoriens' plans they could still qualify on Sunday if Burkina Faso fails to win at Guinea. With a six-point gap between Didier Drogba's bunch and Burkina it's likely just a matter of time anyway.
    The other three African sections are up for grabs.
    In Group A Cameroon is home to Togo while Gabon hosts Morocco. Cameroon can qualify if they get a win and Morocco upsets Gabon. Gabon needs to get no worse than draw to remain alive into the final round on November 14. Morocco, which once ranked with Cameroon as an African "regular" in the finals needs a miracle, but even the current fourth-placed team in this section has a mathematical chance.
    Group B looks like going to Tunisia unless the North Africans spit the bit in their final two games. They came away from their trip to Nigeria with a two point lead over the Super Eagles. Both are home this weekend, Tunisia hosting bottom-placed Kenya while Nigeria has a visit from Mozambique. Tunisia can qualify with a win coupled with a draw or loss by the Super Eagles, but it's more likely that the section will remain undecided until the last day.
    Group C is full of intrigue because two-time African champion Egypt clings to their slim qualifying chances. They must win in Zambia on Saturday to keep alive the hope of a final round showdown, but anything less than a victory will open the door for Algeria to clinch a spot in South Africa against Rwanda on Sunday.

    The first leg of the first playoff that sends a team directly to the finals will be held Saturday in Manama, Bahrain where the Asian playoff winners host Oceania champ New Zealand. You'd have to think that Bahrain needs not only to win but to score a couple at home because the Kiwis, while hardly impressive in the recent Confederations Cup, do have the second leg at home.

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