Last night, the collective bargaining agreement between MLS’ players and the league expired, leaving the players free to strike. Both side issued somewhat contradictory press releases, staking out familiar positions. In a nutshell, the players feel that little progress has been made — and no new negotiations are in the near future — while MLS says that they have addressed a number of the union’s concerns.

 I chatted a bit about what I thought the players have to do on Wednesday. So, let’s follow that up with my thoughts on the situation as it stands right now:

 

1) The union has done an exceptionally poor job communicating exactly what their goals and demands are to the public at large. In contrast, MLS has done a great job of stroking the media and the fan base, and judging on the mail I’ve received this week, many fans back the league because they fear that MLS (and I quote) would “collapse” if there is a work stoppage in a World Cup year.

Unions always have a bit of a tougher road when it comes to getting their message out. For one, leagues and team owners have carefully cultivated contacts for years in the media and fandom, while players are usually only heard from post-game — or, as in the case of Tiger Woods — when they do something stupid.

The MLSPU knew this, and hired a public relations consultant, Neil Hare, to help them get their message out. That effort has failed: Judging once more on the hundreds of emails and tweets I’ve received over the past few days, most fans are worried about the survival of the game on these shores, and believe that a work stoppage imperils that.

What surprises me is that many of these fans don’t seem to even know what the union is fighting for. I’ve had several conversations with people and while people can disagree on the merits of the MLSPU’s aims, it stunned me how few people actually knew what those goals were. Some thought that the MLSPU was seeking to: overturn the salary cap (false); get rid of the single-entity structure (also false); or create a system that would result in massive EPL-style wage wars (utterly false).

 

 

2) The World Cup casts a bigger shadow over these negotiations than it should. Some fans seem to believe that if MLS were to halt play during a World Cup year that it would damage all soccer in the USA. I’m not sure how that follows. In fact, I think the reverse is true: If MLS’ players were to strike, the league could open up for business again after the end of the World Cup and ride that event’s coattails.

What the World Cup has also done is to reveal fissures in the union. Some MLS players feel that a work stoppage would keep them off the World Cup roster. (Here’s a news flash, guys: Most of the USA’s MLS-based players aren’t going to South Africa, so worrying about the six guys who might be really isn’t productive.) Some other players believe that a World Cup year is a time when the spotlight might truly be on them. (On this one, they have a point — the NHL surely has benefited from the Olympics.) And many of the MLS players feel they have a duty to support their countries during a World Cup year, and don’t want their teams to be hit by any distractions. That’s a legitimate, patriotic impulse — and one that can be seized upon to split the union.

Bottom line is that the union right now doesn’t seem to have the votes lined up to strike. If they don’t get their ducks in a row, they lose whatever leverage they have. Like it or not, the fact is that if it weren’t for MLS, many of the American players could not get jobs elsewhere. That doesn’t mean they don’t deserve better than the pittance they are getting, but unless they are really willing to stand together, they might as well give up.

 

 

3) Just because so many people have asked, what would happen if single-entity were to go away? Would MLS fail?

I don’t think so. In fact, MLS right now is showing the limits of the SE structure: It’s a major reason fans have had to endure some painfully bland football these past few seasons.

Let’s say that MLS were forced to operate like every other sports league — not a hybrid one with central control. Right off the bat, I think you would see great pressures on small-market teams. I also think you would see teams needing to make long overdue changes in their front offices: GMs would have become, well, actual GMs and not ticket sales-people; scouting systems would have to be bulked up way beyond what they are now; and teams would live and die on the field.

Since this would be just like every other major league sport around the world, I’ve never thought this was a bad thing.  In the short term, while there would be some pain in places like KC and Columbus, over the long haul, the quality of play would rise, and these teams would become more attractive for foreign players — and places like Sweden and Denmark would become less attractive for American players. Why? Because forcing teams to succeed on the field would help raise something that has been sorely lacking in MLS: the soccer IQ, so to speak. There are a lot of quality people out there who could help make MLS a better league. But if there is no incentive to perform…

Would some owners bail? Perhaps. Would others come in to take their place? Yes. So, stop fretting, fans. And remember: The union isn’t asking for this, either. 

 

4) What’s next? I honestly don’t know. I do know that if the union is going to call a strike, they had best do it quickly. They will have to deal with the predictable outpouring of negativity for some sectors of the press who dump on the sport, and endure a lot of overwrought hang-wringing from fans who have bought into — or agree with — MLS HQ’s arguments.

If not, then the players are going to have to be resigned to the fact that they are second-class citizens, without freedom to work. Fans are going to have to be resigned to the fact that MLS will be unable to attract some talented young foreign players who might improve the league.

Hopefully, common sense will prevail. The thing is, what the union is asking for is exactly what most fans would ask from their own jobs. This ain’t the NFL, and the players know it. But credit MLS for doing a great job winning the war of public perception. That might go a long way towards them getting a big win for the owners — even if it’s not really a big win for soccer.

 

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Kyle McCarthy on what the expired CBA means

 

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TV (All times ET, picks in bold)

TODAY

Schalke v Borussia Dortmund 1430 ESPN360/D

Haiti v LATAM Stars 2000 GolTV

UAG v America 2100 Telefutura

 

SATURDAY

Chelsea v Man City 0745 ESPN2

Mainz v Werder Bremen 0930 GolTV

Bolton v Wolves 1000 Setanta

Birmingham v Wigan 1000 FSC/FSE

Watford v Newcastle 1000 ESPN360

Getafe v Real Zaragoza 1200 GolTV

Burnley v Portsmouth 1200 SDD Setanta

Bayer Leverkusen v Koln 1225 ESPND/360

Stoke v Arsenal 1230 FSC/FSE

Lyon v Nice 1300 Setanta

Tenerife v Real Madrid 1400 GolTV

Lazio v Fiorentina 1445 FSC/FSE

Montpellier v Rennes 1500 Setanta

Barcelona v Malaga 1555 ESPND/360

River v Penarol 1600 GolTV

Catania v Bari 1700 FSC SDD

Cruz Azul v Atlas 1800 FSE

Queretaro v Santos 1800 Telefutura

Cucuta v Nacional 1800 GolTV

Chivas v San Luis 2000 Telemundo

Pachuca v UNAM 2000 Telefutura

Tigres v Morelia 2000 MUN2

Medellin v Quindio 2030 GolTV

 

SUNDAY

Spurs v Everton 0800 Setanta

PSV v Waalwijk 0830 ESPN360/D

AC Milan v Atalanta 0900 FSE

Napoli v Roma 0900 ESPN360

Udinese v Inter Milan 0900 ESPN360

Villa v Manchester United 1000 Setanta

Liverpool v Blackburn 1000 FSC

Sunderland v Fulham 1000 SDD 1200 FSC

Villarreal v Coruna 1100 DTV

Xerez v Espanyol 1100 DTV

Racing v Almerja 1100 DTV

Valladollid v Mallorca 1100 DTV

Bayern v Hamburg 1130 GolTV

Sevilla v Bilbao 1300 ESPN360/D/DTV

Toluca v Indios 1300 Telemundo

Juventus v Palermo 1445 FSC/FSE

Atletico Madrid v Valencia 1500 GolTV

PSG v OM 1500 Setanta

Sporting v Porto 1515 ESPN360

Puebla v Jaguares 1700 Azteca/ESPND