Our World Cup week preview continues today with a look at the situation in South America where the obvious big story is the fate of Argentina, but that's not the only possible historic outcome as this 18-game qualifying grind comes to a close.
Yes, imagining a World Cup without Diego Maradona and Argentina is quite remarkable. Come to think of it, imagining a World Cup with Maradona front and center for the media is also remarkable.
But if you are Venezuelan, the big story this weekend whether your team can finally qualify for the finals. It's the only South American nation that has never reached the highest level of the world game but remains one of five nations on a huge bubble as the final two rounds get started. This is also the finest Venezuelan national team we've ever seen.
Let's take care of the simple facts first:
Brazil and Paraguay have qualified.
Chile needs a win to qualify directly, a point to make sure it finishes no worse than fifth and enters a playoff with the CONCACAF fourth place finisher.
Brazil and Paraguay hold the fate of Venezuela in their grasp. Paraguay goes to Venezuela on Saturday, then Venezuela finishes its fixtures at Brazil on Wednesday. Two Venezuelan wins would put them on 27 points and almost surely would get them a top-5 finish. It's possible, maybe more so because their opponents have nothing to play for.
But it's almost impossible sort out the permutations among the five teams chasing three places.
Starting Saturday you have Ecuador on 23 points and in fourth place. Argentina has 22 followed by Uruguay and Venezuela (21) and Colombia (20). All can still qualify.
The fixtures provide some serious head-to-head stuff, too.
Saturday it's Chile at Colombia and Uruguay at Ecuador. Argentina is home to Peru, already eliminated.
Wednesday offers Paraguay vs. Colombia, Chile vs. Ecuador, Uruguay vs. Argentina and that Brazil vs. Venezuela match.
Obviously, Ecuador and Argentina control their own fate. Both can make certain of finishing no worse than fifth by winning their final games. The three below them all need to win and get some help somewhere else.
It's far too complicated to even bother speculating on what can happen.
Just sit back and enjoy it.
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