its the end of july, and that means nfl teams report to training camps, thus rekindling the dreams of football fans around the country.  unless you reside in or around detroit (where the only sure bet is the over/under on when the firing of matt millen talk will resurface, which, for my money, is before october 15th), you have the hope of your team hoisting the lombardi trophy in miami early in 2007.  as a steelers fan, i am familiar with this feeling, and thoroughly satisfied that each time the steelers have and will be mentioned from last february to the coming one, they are referred to as the "world champion pittsburgh steelers."  for those of you too young to have ever witnessed your team win it or those of you in a city with a team run by an inept gm, let me tell you, it is truly special.  i admit to crying with my father in the middle of a damon's restaurant when hines was announced as mvp, and i am 100% comfortable that it happened.  however, my duty as a blogger is to seperate my emotion from writing, stressing objectivity over subjectivity.  

that said, i know how much emotion we as nfl fans put into "next season."  so much speculation and predictions based on the draft, off-field incidents, signings, etc. fly around the sports stations and internet, most of which are far from reality a mere two months later.  the point is this: no one knows what's going to happen.  holdouts happen.  injuries happen.  firings happen.  underacheivement and overacheivement happen.  right now, all we know is that we don't know.  but we sure do love to make (hopefully educated) guesses.  so, with no clue of anything, here is a prediction of the 2006 nfl season.

afc east       

1) miami dolphins (11-5):  the dolphins have all the pieces necessary for a playoff run.  culpepper and harrington were both big additions, and with chambers and booker, a solid te in mcmichaels, and emerging rb ronnie brown, they should have a potent offense.  their defense showed improvement in the 2nd half of last season, and with taylor and zach thomas anchoring the unit, it should see continued success.  the glaring hole is the secondary, but with the offense improved, pass attempts against the d should be frequent, and the dbs can make plays on the ball in obvious passing downs.  this team has the chance to not only win the division, but make a deep run in the playoffs.

2) new england patriots (9-7): the pats didn't get worse.  they drafted well, still have the best leader in football at qb, have weapons on offense (te ben watson, rb corey dillon, and recently drafted lawrence maroney and chad jackson) and a solid defense.  however, they lost mcginest and vinatieri to free agency, have a potential wr holdout in deion branch, and a more question marks than in years past.  they should be good and make the playoffs, but they won't win their division.

3) new york jets (6-10): the jets have no set starter at qb, an aging rb, and behind laverneous coles, no explosive wrs.  however, both first round fraft picks were solid and new coach eric mangini has instilled the mindset and installed the system he picked up from bill belicheck in new england.  this team is in a transition/rebuilding phase, but are beginning to amass the pieces necessary to be successful in the future.

4) buffalo bills (5-11): the loss of takeo spikes last year hurt the defense, which will be improved this year with his return, as well as the addition of several dbs through the draft.  there is no proven starting qb on the roster.  rb willis mcgahee will be a star in years to come, but without the threat of a passing attack (losman to evans won't frighten too many d coordinators), teams can stack the box and prevent his breakout year. 

afc north

1) baltimore ravens (10-6): this team could be the best example of a "paper tiger" in the league.  they have a former mvp at qb (mcnair), a former 2,000 rusher in the backfield (lewis), a complete te (heap), capable and talented wrs (mason and clayton), a super-bowl winning coach (billick), and a defense loaded with talent (reed, lewis, suggs).  this is a critical year for this team and for coach brian billick.  if he fails to lead the team to the playoffs (as was predicted last year as well), he can no longer blame injuries or kyle boller's ineptitude. 

2) pittsburgh steelers (9-7): the super bowl champs (oooh sounds great) haven't changed all that much since last season.  they replaced each free agent lost (hope with clark/smith, randle el with reid/holmes, von oelhoffen with keisel) and have duce staley and cedric humes to play the role of the bus.  everyone is aware of their talent on both sides of the ball, given their publicity during super bowl week.  however, a dropoff after a season like last year's is a real possibility, especially in this tough division.  they will finish with an-above .500 record, but barely miss the playoffs.

3) cincinnati bengals (9-7): with carson palmer back to full strength by the start of the season, there is no reason to think the bengals won't be successful again in 2006.  they have explosive wrs in johnson and t.j., a bruising rb in r. johnson, and palmer is obviously a tremendous talent.  however, off the field issues and a suspect defense have contributed to skepticism about their chances this season.  it doesn't matter if you score 35 points a game if teams can score 42 against you.  in this cutthroat division, they will miss the playoffs.

4) cleveland browns (5-11): in a weaker division, the browns could go 8-8.  they have solid skill players on offense in droughns, edwards, and even winslow and frye.  romeo crennel has also brought in many free agents (including ex-pat mcginest) to bolster his o line and defense.  he is a great motivator and is building a team his way, which will speak volumes in the future.  they will continue to see improvement, but will be relegated to last place in the afc north.

afc west

1) denver broncos (11-5): with possibly the best draft-day moves in the nfl, the broncos secured a top-level qb in jay cutler and dealt for former packer javon walker to augment the receiving corps.  even is lelie chooses to leave, the broncos have jake plummer (an mvp candidate into the late weeks of 2005) throwing to walker and smith and handing off to bell and dayne behind one of the best o lines in football.  their defense, led by hard-hitting john lynch and lockdown corner champ bailey, has been solid for many years.  this is another tough division, but the broncos have the personnel and coach to win it again.

2) kansas city chiefs (10-6): despite their lack of a game-changing wr, like the ravens, the chiefs look great on paper.  trent green is arguably the most underrated qb in football.  tony gonzalez is among the 3 best tes in the game.  larry johnson is being discussed as the best rb in the league.  the defense added hali in the draft and ty law via free agency, along with many free agents before last season.  the d unit has the talent, their problem was a failure to execute.  new coach herm edwards will bring the right attitude and lead this team to the playoffs.

3) san diego chargers (8-8): the chargers have the best all-around rb and te in football, in lt and antonio gates.  they also have some talented players on defense, including merriman and donnie edwards.  however, their problem areas are serious.  behing aging wr keenan mccardell, they have no solid, proven wideouts.  quentin jammer is a disappointment at db, and antonio cromartie is not an immediate answer for a lackluster pass defense.  although he learned behind drew brees for two seasons, first year starting qb philip rivers will have a steep learning curve in adjusting to the nfl game.  even if he becomes solid during the middle of the season, the chargers will be too far behind in a tough division to make up ground.  expect marty to be fired at the end of the year.

4) oakland raiders (5-11): the raiders have an exceptionally dynamic wr corps in moss, porter, and curry.  they are all unique and game-changing in their own right.  lamont jordan is a potentially great rb as well.  with the right qb, this team's offense could click very well.  however, aaron brooks is not that qb.  he is a better fit than collins, but you won't see this team overpower anyone offensively.  their defense is porous as well.  the addition of michael huff should help, but with the offensive powers in their division, not enough personnel was brought in to prevent this team from finishing last.

afc south   

1) indianapolis colts (12-4): the success of this team hinges on rb joseph addai, and whether he can fill the role of the departed james.  it is a foregone conclusion that addai will be the starter over domanic rhoades, and should see success in the wide open indy offense.  nothing much else has changed.  the wrs are still great, the qb is still the best in football, and the defense is still going to be menacing.  there is no reason to think this team, while not going 16-0, will not be the #1 seed in the afc.

2) jacksonville jaguars (8-8): the jags are a team that has terrific potential, but also glaring holes.  the loss of jimmy smith will be greater than most anticipate, but will be minimized by the emergence of matt jones and ernest wilford.  leftwich is a gamer, but will never be the quintessential finesse qb.  there is a major question mark in the backfield, as no jacksonville rusher was successful last season.  drafting rb maurice drew and te mercedes lewis will help, but a team challenging the colts can't rely on rookies to make the difference.  the defense, with stroud and henderson anchoring the d line, will be successful against the run and should help in disrputing the passing game as well.  the afc is a tougher conference by far, and this team will experience mediocrity this season and miss the playoffs.

3) houston texans (6-10): the texans will once again finish with double digit losses, but will be much improved this season.  new coach gary kubiak brings both offensive knowledge and te jeb putzier with him from denver.  along with the new te, david carr has wrs andre johnson and eric moulds as weapons, and a solid rb in domanic davis behind him.  obviously carr and the offense have shown promise to coaches and the gm, being that they did not select either leinart, young, or bush #1 overall.  instead, they took mario williams, a freak of a pass-rusher who should see immediate success.  this team does not have the o or d lines to be a contender, but they are on the rise.

4) tenessee titans (5-11): don't be surprised to hear the calls for lendale white and vince young early into the 2006 campaign.  these high-profile players should compete for starting jobs, and win them if the team is reeling.  besides david givens, the titans did little to upgrade their offense.  with a new starting qb and problems at rb, the offense will look stymied for parts of the season.  their dbs, like pacman jones, are young and talented, but the defense and its philosophy isn't good enough to stay afloat against the offenses in this division.

nfc east 

1) dallas cowboys (12-4): in easily the nfl's toughest division, the cowboys will show they are in a class above the rest.  with the addition of t.o., their offense becomes instantly explosive and opens up options for drew bledsoe.  terry glenn is a soid #2 receiver, jason witten is underrated, and julius jones and marion barber are a formidable duo in the backfield.  drew bledsoe isn't the most mobile of qbs, but he is a good game manager, and will have one of his best seasons statistically.  the defense is filled with talent as well, with demarcus ware and roy williams, in addition to rookie bobby carpenter.  this is the make or break year for parcells and jones, and expect them to see great success.

2) washington redskins (9-7): the redskins once again won the free agency sweepstakes, acquiring solid talent in many major positions.  the addition of wrs lloyd and randle el makes three receiver sets a possibility on every down, which will open up the field for clinton portis and chris cooley.  expect portis to have his best statistical year of his career.  like bledsoe, brunell isn't very mobile and is injury-prone, but is also accurate and savvy.  if he can stay upright, expect him to have a great year.  despite the loss of arrington, the defense is still solid and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.  this team will finish in the positives and sneak into the playoffs.

3) new york giants (8-8): eli manning showed early last year that he has the ability to be an excellent qb.  it looked like he and burress and shockey were poised to be the next set of wr/te/qb tandems.  this all fell apart, and despite a great year from tiki barber, the giants offense fizzled and put up a donut in the first round of the playoffs.  the talent is there on offense, and with the addition of sinorice moss, eli has even more weapons at his disposal.  the defense should be improved as well, with the overhaul of the secondary and the addition of lavar arrington to a unit already anchored by strahan and osi.  this team should be great, but they will finish below .500 and miss the playoffs.

4) philadelphia eagles (5-11): the eagles have a solid enough front office and coaching staff to rebound from a disastrous 2005, but in this division, the rebuilding phase will be postponed significantly.  their aversion to the running game is well-documented, despite having brian westbrook on the payroll.  they have no clear-cut #1 receiver, although reggie brown is an intriguing talent.  their qb has the talent to continue his excellent career, but many wonder if the emotional rollercoaster over the last year and a half will get to him.  the defense is still a realiable unit with several proven veterans like bdawk and kearse, but will be hard-pressed to keep up with the skill players possessed by the three division foes.

nfc north   

1) minnesota vikings (10-6): the vikings almost took the division from the bears late last year, and showed promise for the 2006 campaign.  qb brad johnson showed he is a poised and efficient leader.johnson's statistics are not eye-popping, but he will control the tempo of the game.  the addition of rb chester taylor should not be underestimated either, as he showed considerable skills in his role as a raven.  the wr corps is a good squad as well, highlighted by the speedy troy williamson.  the defense is an improving unit as well.  the vikes have loaded up with young talent with plenty of potential based on their speed and abilities.  a deep run in the playoffs is out of the question, but they should win the division and make the postseason.

2) chicago bears (9-7): the defensive unit is much-heralded and, based on their 2005 numbers, were considered one of the best defenses in the history of the nfl last season.  led by brian urlacher, this side of the ball has no glaring weaknesses, and should once again hold opponents to low scores.  however, in order for that to matter, the offense has to score points.  there are too many questions for this offense to be reliable.  will rex grossman fulfill his potential?  will benson or jones be the starting rb?  will muhsin muhammad regain the magic he had in carolina?  do the bears even have a te?  although they have a truly excellent d, their offense will hinder their chance at a playoff berth and they will miss the postseason.

3)  detroit lions (6-10): the lions might have made the biggest blunder of the draft in not taking matt leinart with their first round selection.  the qb battle betwen kitna and mccown will not provide a solid starter for the season.  despite the questions under center, the lions do have a rising star in kevin jones and three standout college wrs in rogers and the williams boys.  with mike martz designing the plays, expect a dynamic offensive unit, yet somewhat hindered by the ineffectiveness of their qbs.  on defense, they have no outstanding talents, but do have speedy lbs and should be a more aggresive unit with new coaching.  their secondary is a concern, and this team is still far from contention in the division. 

4) green bay packers (4-12):  in what should be his final season, brett favre cannot lead this team devoid of reliable skill players.  the injury-prone rb duo of green and davenport, aging te franks, and wr corps of no-names (besides driver) cannot provide enough weapons for a competent offense.  expect favre to throw many more picks, and pressure from fans to start aaron rodgers.  the defense added speed and youth in charles woodson and a.j. hawk, which should improve a lackluster unit.  the problem with the packers is that they will be unable to score (expect between 10-14 points a game), and would find themselves in the nfc north basement, if not for detroit.

nfc west

1) seattle seahawks (11-5):  the super bowl losers hope to not meet the same fate as their predecessors, oakland and philadelphia, falling off the deep end following a 2nd place finish.  despite the loss of og hutchinson, the team is mostly still in tact, and has gained in many areas.  shaun alexander is still a scoring machine.  matt hasselbeck is a solid qb and emerging as one of the league's 5 best.  the addition of koren robinson and a healthy darell jackson are key to the passing attack.  and, despite a subpar super bowl, te jerramy stevens is a solid pass-catcher.  the defense should be improved as well, with rising star lofa tatupu gaining more independence as the 'hawks signed julian peterson.  although the team's secondary is still suspect, all the other pieces remain in place and the team should coast to a division title and playoff berth.

2) arizona cardinals (7-9): the cardinals are the sexy pick this year, as they were in 2005.  the addition of edgerrin james and deuce lutui gives them an instant running attack, and should take pressure off of kurt warner and the outstanding wr set of fitzgerald and boldin.  rookie te leonard pope should emerge as a solid starter as well.  this potent offense should put up plenty of points and attack with many different weapons.  the cards have focused on defense in the past several drafts, acquiring young players whom coach denny green likes a lot.  the team was ranked in the top 10 in defense last season, and their ability to stop opponents will determine their success this season.

3) st. louis rams (6-10): the rams are a team entrenched in mediocrity.  qb marc bulger is a solid gamer, and wr torry holt remains one of the most consistent threats in football.  rb steven jackson should have his breakout year, with more opportunities coming with the departed mike martz.  kevin curtis is also an intruiging player who showed flashes of brilliance last season.  the offense is aging, but can still be productive and score when it needs to.  the defense should be better with the addition of d coordinator jim haslett.  although they lost adam archuleta, the philosophy under haslett will be tougher.  even so, they simply do not have the all-around talent to compete this season,

4) san francisco 49ers (4-12): this could be the make or break year for alex smith.  he was given the chance throughout his first season, and failed to show the ability to complete even simple passes.  the loss of brandon lloyd should be made up for by the acquisition of antonio bryant and the drafting of dynamic te vernon davis.  frank gore should beat out barlow for the starting rb position and have some success this season.  however, with no team scared of the passing attack, the box will be stacked and gore will have a tough time finding room to manuever.  the defense is full of holes and question marks, and lost their best player in julian peterson to division champ seattle.  this team is too young and lacks the talent to be effective this year.  expect another year at the bottom for san fran. 

 nfc south

1) carolina panthers (11-5): the panthers enter 2006 with one one concern - that of the rb position.  deshaun foster proved to be an asset on offense last season, but many believe he is not capable of turning in a 1400 yard/10 td year.  the panthers recognized this, and drafted deangelo williams to back him up.  the passing attack should be solid as well, with delhomme adding keyshawn johnson to steve smith as a target.  johnson is a possession receiver and should complement the superstar smith nicely.  the panthers' defense is solid as well, with dan morgan anchoring the lbs, while key free agent signings make the d line one of the best in football.  pass rusher julius peppers provides speed off the edge, and should have a great year.  both sides of this team are great, and should win this tough division and go deep in the playoffs.

2) atlanta falcons (10-6): this is a critical year for michael vick.  he is an extraordinary talent; a dual threat that provides a myriad of problems for defenses.  he has the duo of dunn and duckett behind him, and a great te in crumpler and the emerging roddy white as targets.  before every season, it seems like vick will add a consistently accurate arm to his fleet legs to make an unstoppable force, but each year he does not make the expected step forward.  this could be the make or break year, given the lack of excuses if it doens't work out.  the signing of john abraham bolsters the defensive unit, which is already steady and contains several studs.  they are quick and able to get pressure to the qb, but can get into trouble if their offense fails to give them a sizable lead.  expect the falcons to earn a wildcard berth this year and sneak into the playoffs.

3) tampa bay buccaneers (9-7): gruden has apparently settled on qb chris sims as his starter, and with cadillac williams, this could be a formidable qb/rb combo for years to come.  the wrs clayton and galloway and te alex smith are all consistent pass-catchers, and should provide simms the options he needs to be successful.  the health of williams and the progression of simms are paramount, and a setback in either could spell disaster for the bucs.  on defense, the same stars (barber, brooks, and kiffin) lead the way for a unit that has ranked in the top 10 in almost every category year after year.  the only concern on defense will be age catching up with the starters.  if they can play beyond their age, they should be great once again. 

4) new orleans saints (6-10): much is made about the drafting of reggie bush.  he will be an excellent running back and kick returner in the nfl, but not on this team and in this year.  he will split carries with deuce mcallister and run behind a shoddy o line, decreasing his breakaway chances and negating his elusiveness.  qb drew brees is an accurate thrower, and if he has fully recovered from shoulder surgery, should be successful with wrs joe horn and donte stallworth.  the offense has a good group of skill players (even considering the recoveries of mcallister, horn, and brees), but the o line will limit its ability to let plays develop.  the defensive line has the ability to rush the quarterback, but the loss of dwight smith will hurt their pass coverage.  with three threatening offenses in their division, expect the new orleans defense to struggle and fail to hold opponents.  in this division, the saints are relegated to the bottom for this season and the foreseeable future.  

 

playoff picture

afc:

seeds: 1) colts  2) broncos  3) dolphins  4) ravens  5) patriots  6) chiefs

wild card weekend: dolphins over chiefs, patriots over ravens

divisional playoffs: dolphins over broncos, colts over patriots

championship game: colts over dolphins 

nfc:

seeds: 1) cowboys  2) panthers  3) seahawks  4) vikings  5) falcons  6) redskins

wild card weekend: seahawks over redskins, falcons over vikings

divisional playoffs: panthers over seahawks, cowboys over falcons

championship game: panthers over cowboys

super bowl xli: panthers over colts     super bowl mvp: jake delhomme

 

awards

offensive rookie of the year: joseph addai, rb, colts (honary mention: deangelo williams, rb, panthers; chad jackson, wr, patriots; mercedes lewis, te, jaguars)

defensive rookie of the year: bobby carpenter, lb, cowboys (honorary mention: a.j. hawk, lb, packers; broderick bunkley, de, eagles; tamba hali, de, chiefs)

coach of the year: nick saban, dolphins (honorary mention: bill parcells, cowboys; tony dungy, colts; john fox, panthers)

defensive player of the year: lofa tatupu, lb, seahawks (honorary mention: dan morgan, lb, panthers; ty law, cb, chiefs; troy polamalu, s, steelers)

league mvp: terell owens, wr, cowboys (honorary mention: steve smith, wr, panthers; peyton manning, qb, colts; clinton portis, rb, redskins)

 

10 breakout players (players who will exceed expectations for 2006)

andre johnson (wr, texans)

chris chambers (wr, dolphins)

chester taylor (rb, vikings)

derrick mason (wr, ravens)

jason witten (te, cowboys)

duce staley (rb, steelers)

reggie brown (wr, eagles)

jake delhomme (qb, carolina)

nate burleson (wr, sea)

tom brady (qb, patriots)

 

i would love to hear any feedback on my predictions.  keep in mind that this is a preview being written even before the start of most nfl training camps, and well before any scrimmages or preseason games.  as i said in my introduction, this is all subject to (much) change with one injury, disgruntled star, or any other shakeup.  there is no way to tell what will happen or what factors will affect the teams this season, but all fans seem to know exactly what will happen anyway.  that's what makes this so darn fun.