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Northwestern
Last year, the Wildcats were just a few plays away from winning their first bowl game since 1949. Losing in overtime to Missouri is still nothing to be embarrassed about. Northwestern made great strides in becoming a player in the Big Ten conference race. Northwestern will have to fill a lot of positions to continue their rise through the Big Ten ranks.
The big difference between Northwestern's retooling and other teams doing the same? Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald. No, he doesn't walk on water. No, he's not the Messiah. Well...he may be for Wildcat football. Fitz has a no-nonsense approach and has been teaching his players to "expect success". That's a far cry different from Northwestern programs of the past that seemed to pray that they just didn't come in last. He's brought back a belief that this program really can hang with the big boys. He's had some time to work with the boys that will have to step up this year, and I believe he'll have them ready to do just that.
As for their schedule, I'd love to see some tough opponents on the docket. I'd like to see this program taking on ranked opponents rather than powder puffs. Wins over big opponents equals more respect than big wins over small opponents.
The Schedule
September 5 - vs Towson - Who??? Dadgumit fellas, where are you getting these opponents? What, did the Big Ten suddenly become the prep league for high school teams to test their prowess before entering college? What the heck? Yeah, I'm not happy at all about this game.
September 12 - vs Eastern Michigan - This is a fairly common Big Ten opponent this year. I can't complain about it too much. At least they're an FBS team.
September 19 - @ Syracuse - As I mentioned in an earlier post, Syracuse is getting back to "basics". If they get really good at those basics, they could be an interesting opponent. I don't think so, though. Northwestern's style should confuse them. Still, this isn't a terrible game.
September 26 - vs Minnesota - I don't mind this game at all. Actually, I like it a lot. Minnesota is going through some big changes, and are breaking in a brand new stadium. They should be a decent opponent for the Wildcats at home.
October 3 - @ Purdue - Nice road date. I'm not seeing anything yet to really push the Wildcats, though.
October 10 - vs Miami (OH) - What? You're going back to play a team like Miami of Ohio now?? So, we're in the second week of October, and Northwestern has yet to play a truly competitive team. Was somebody expecting a collapse this year?
October 17 - @ Michigan State - Finally, an opponent that can really test Northwestern's metle. Too bad this one's on the road. I might pick it differently if it were at home.
October 24 - vs Indiana - This could be pretty good. I expect improvements for Indiana. I don't know how many improvements, but improvements all the same. This could be a pretty good game, for a half, at least.
October 31 - vs Penn State - I like this game being played in Evanston. This should be one of the better games all season. Northwestern may well give the Nittany Lions a run for their money.
November 7 - @ Iowa - Last year's game was very close, but Northwestern pulled out the win. This year they travel to Iowa City to see if they can make it a little more decisive. It won't be easy, but it will definitely be possible. This is another good week for Northwestern. Win or lose, this game is another opportunity to show how improved they are over the "Wildcats of old".
November 14 - @ Illinois - This is a fantastic game in my book. Illinois should be improved over last year. The Wildcats will be improved, especially on defense. I think this will be a tough match.
November 21 - vs Wisconsin - Good way to end the season: at home and against a team that's beatable. This game will decide just which bowl the Wildcats go to.
Okay...so what?
Well, in a lot of ways, I'm disappointed in the Wildcat schedule. For a team that went 9-4 last season, and believes they're going to be even better this year, I'd like to see tougher opponents up front. I don't get teams like Northwestern playing FCS teams like Towson. They don't really help much for BCS consideration and a team on the rise should start thinking about such things. I can deal with Eastern Michigan, especially early in the season, as well as Syracuse and Miami (OH), though I'd rather see Miami in place of Townson. Then they could schedule a much tougher team in that week 6 slot. Maybe there was no one open at that time, who knows?
After that point, however, they have a pretty decent schedule. Indiana's definitely beatable, but will hopefully provide enough of a challenge to keep them sharp. Michigan State, Penn State, Iowa and Illinois will test the Wildcats and Wisconsin is a good home date to close out the regular season and give a final push towards a bowl worthy of having them.
All-in-all, it's not terrible, but I just can't get over the first six weeks. I think it'll hurt them in the long run.
Way too early prediction
Towson, Eastern Michigan, and Syracuse shouldn't be much more than practice-type scrimmages for Northwestern. I give them all three with no problems. Minnesota might be tough game, if it were on the road in their new stadium, but it's not. At Evanston, I'll give this one to Northwestern also, as well as the follow-up date at Purdue. Miami of Ohio was only 2-10 last year and shouldn't provide much challenge to this Northwestern team. They'll be perfect at the halfway point of the season.
Then comes Michigan State, on the road. I think Northwestern will have a good showing in this game, but I'm not so sure they'll win it. This is where the first half of the season may hurt them. Michigan State will be night-and-day better than the opponents they've faced so far. The Wildcats will be accustomed to that level of play and won't be ready for someone like the Spartans. MSU wins this one.
As I said before, I think Indiana will be better than last year. Just how much better? Not enough to beat Northwestern, though they could make it a decent game. That leaves the Wildcats at 7-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten when they host Penn State.
Now that they've had to face at least one real tough team, and given the respect Penn State has in the conference, Northwestern should be much better prepared for this game than they were for Michigan State. This could be a pretty tough battle, at least through the first three quarters. I think PSU starts to pull away in the fourth quarter, but not by a lot.
Then the Wildcats travel to Iowa. This one's tough for me to call. Who will be the better team? That depends a lot on what Iowa's able to do with their defensive line now that King and Kroul are gone. Don't kid yourself, though, their offense will be better than last year. I'm giving this one to the Hawkeyes for two reasons: 1) they want revenge for that very narrow loss last year, and 2) it's in Iowa City.
That makes NW 7-3 overall and 3-3 in the Big Ten.
The match at Illinois is another tough one to call. Everyone seemed to think that Illinois was going to be powerful last year, with Juice Williams leading the Illini to a New Year's bowl. Instead, they folded like a house of cards and were home before December even rolled in. I predict they'll be better this year. That this one is at Champaign/Urbana is enough for me to give them the win.
Northwestern then ends their season at home against Wisconsin. The Badgers had big problems last year and I'm not sure they'll get those issues under control this year. Even if they do, I think Northwestern's defense will be plenty strong enough to stifle the Badger attack and their offense will confuse them. Northwestern will end their season with a nice home win.
Final tally: Northwestern will go 8-4 on the regular season, 4-4 in the Big Ten and will get a decent bowl. I'm sure plenty of people would disagree with me on several points. Iowa could go to Northwestern. So, too, could Illinois. For that matter, the Wildcats could shock Michigan State and end the season 10-2 and get a New Year's Day bowl. It's possible. I honestly don't take Iowa to win because of a "homer pick", though I'm not above doing so. I really think Iowa will be improved over last year. That game will be an exciting one, though. Also, as close as I came to changing my mind about the Illinois game and taking NW to win, I stand behind my picks thus far and stuck with Illinois.
In the end, I think Northwestern's schedule hurts them more than helps. They're not getting the quality opponents up front to prepare them for the ones they'll face in the second half of the season. While that may boost their record, I think they'd fair just as well, if not better, if they had someone up front to push them.
Even with a record that's technically worse than last years, I think Northwestern will still be improved and will be well positioned to be really tough in 2010.
Next up....Iowa.
Way Too Early Look at Big Ten Schedules (Part 7)
Tuesday, April 14, 2009, 06:02 PM EST
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