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    NFC Playoff Picks

    Sunday, December 11, 2005, 06:57 PM EST [General]

    With the AFC playoff picture almost wrapped up, and only the final playoff spot really up for grabs between Pitt, KC, and SD, and both home-field and first-round byes nearly wrapped up for Indy and Cinci, the NFC playoff picture is clearly quite a bit fuzzier, however, based on remaining schedules, the winners can be predicted ahead of time, although, the races could come down to the wire.

    Seattle has already clinched in the west, and none of the other western teams pose any threat at a playoff berth. In fact, only St. Louis is within striking distance, and even if they win out, and Dallas, Minnesota, and Altanta all lose out, the Rams still would lose tiebreaker based on in-conference records to both Dallas and Minnesota.

    In the NFC East, the Giants hold a 1-game lead on Dallas. The two teams do not play each other, and the Giants have three games that could be tough. K.C. at home, and then on the road against divisional rival Washington and to a tough environment across the country against Oakland. Dallas also has two tough road games, also playing at Washington and then in week 16 against Carolina, while finishing at home against St. Louis. Expect Dallas to win against the Rams, but tough games against Washington and Carolina will break them down. Pick New York to win the East based simply on the fact that they lead the division now and they hold their own destiny.

    In the NFC North, it is very possible that the Vikings and Bears could meet in week 17 with tied records. This week 17 matchup will be indoors at Minnesota. Watch out for the Vikings to win this division as Chicago will have to get past tough games against Atlanta and Green Bay, in which their defense will have to win the game. With the week 17 matchup being indoors and out of the element, expect the Vikings defense to win a war of attrition, and pull out a victory simply because the Bears offense is not good enough.

    In the NFC South, the playoff picture becomes very tough. It will be very difficult for less than two teams to come out of this division, and it is also a strange possibility that both wildcard teams could come from the South. The Bucs and Panthers are currently at the top of the division with the Bucs holding a slight advantage in tiebreaker. Each of those teams face the Saints in the final three weeks, and matchups against the Falcons. The Bucs have the advantage over the Falcons in that they traditionally dominate the birds and they get Atlanta in Tampa Bay. Pick Tampa Bay to beat Atlanta and New Orleans, but fall in week 15 when they travel to Boston to take on the Patriots. Carolina should hold on and win against both the Saints on the road and Dallas at home, but lose to Atlanta on artificial turf in the Georgia Dome to close out the season. This scenario would give Tampa Bay the divisional victory in the South, and Carolina would take the first wildcard spot if Atlanta beats Chicago. The final wildcard spot will come down to Dallas, Chicago, and Atlanta. I will refrain from picking the final wildcard spot simply because I believe Atlanta, Dallas, and Chicago will all end with the same overall record. The tiebreakers in this scenario get out of hand with Atlanta holding head-to-head over Chicago, Chicago holding in-conference tiebreaker over Dallas, and Dallas holding in-conference tiebreaker over Atlanta, so I'm not sure how that will work out. It all shapes up to be an exciting final three weeks in the NFC.

    To recap:

    NFC East: New York

    NFC South: Tampa Bay

    NFC North: Minnesota

    Wildcard 1: Carolina

    Wildcard 2: Atlanta, Chicago, or Dallas

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    Magical endings can't save Vanderbilt's poor defense this time

    Saturday, December 10, 2005, 07:07 PM EST [General]

    Ten days ago, Vanderbilt's men's basketballt team defeated Oregon in a thriller, with a 30 foot running jumper by Mario Moore to squeak past the Ducks by a single point. The Commodores had no reason to win that game, as their defense did not come to play. They allowed 21 offensive rebounds, leading to way too many second chance points for Oregon. The only reason Vanderbilt was in any position to win that game was because of superb shooting on the offensive side, particularly from transfer Derrick Byars. That was ten days ago. Ten days that Vanderbilt would have to work on the problems on defense before their next match, which would be against Cincinnati, a team that I view as very equal to Oregon, whom I also view as very equal to Vanderbilt.

    That brings us to today, the culmination of the work that the Commodores have put in in practice for ten days. The chance for Vandy to show that they are a better defensive team than they showed against Oregon, and the chance for their shooters to show off and handle Cincinnati at Memorial Gymnasium, the most interesting and difficult gym for visitors in the country.

    Vanderbilt's shooters showed off their skill, particularly Byars again, putting up 23 points on his own, but three other Commodores reached double figures as well as Vandy put up 83 points. A score that should never be topped when you play on your home court. But the defense had not improved themselves from what they had shown ten days prior. Cincinnati finished the day shooting over 50% from the field and near 50% from 3-pt. range. The Bearcats also got to the foul line 30 times, thanks to 19 Vanderbilt fouls. Its clear to see why this team will struggle when they reach SEC play.

    For the Commodores, this was their last test at home in the non-conference schedule. Aside from tough road games against Dayton and Georgia Tech, Vandy should win out in their non-conference schedule and enter SEC play with a solid record. That leaves them 27 days to their SEC opener against Auburn. A game in which they must show that their defense has improved, because they immediately travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats just three days later. If those 27 days go by and the defense doesn't improve the way it didn't over the past 10 days, the Commodors will struggle throughout conference play and an NCAA tournament bid will be no guarantee. Its true, Vanderbilt can shoot with almost any team in the country, but defense is what will win them games in the SEC.

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    When drivers change teams

    Friday, December 9, 2005, 10:30 AM EST [General]

    I'm a Bobby Labonte fan. Anyone who knows me well enough could tell you that, whether they watch NASCAR or not. I have a green flag with a large red 18 hanging above my bed. As I write this, I am wearing a grey fleece with an 18 on the right breast and an Interstate Batteries logo on the left.

    Recently, Bobby signed a new contract to drive for Petty Enterprises, moving him out of Joe Gibbs #18 car and into the #43 made famous by The King, Richard Petty. So where should my alliances be, with the driver who has been my favorite since I started watching NASCAR, or with the team who I've dedicated myself to being a fan of for years, including all three of Joe Gibbs race teams (Tony Stewart's #20 and Jason Leffler/Terry Labonte/Denny Hamlin's #11)?

    To answer this question, its important to get to the root of why I was a fan of Bobby Labonte and his #18 car. I don't know what made me choose him as my favorite years ago, but I do know that in many of the races I have attended in person, he has finished well (including a win at Atlanta and third place finishes at Bristol and Charlotte). I know that in watching him on tv, I've always been impressed by his composure in the face of adversity and the overwhelming amount of respect he has throughout all of NASCAR.

    As far as being a fan of the #20 and #11 cars, I was really only a fan of them because they worked with Bobby's team, sharing testing information and the like. But during that time I have witnessed two championships by Tony Stewart making it harder for me to pull away. Alas, I must.

    For as long as I've been watching NASCAR, I've always had a number of drivers I like and think a lot of (Rusty Wallace, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Dale Jarrett just to name a few). But I've never been more passionate of a fan for any driver the way I have been for the 2000 cup champion, Bobby Labonte. I must maintain my alliances with the driver who I have associated myself with for years. I can still have Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and JJ Yeley (the three Joe Gibbs drivers for 2006) as drivers I like, but its now time for me to go out and invest in new t-shirts, flags, and stickers bearing the #43 of Bobby Labonte and Petty Enterprises.

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    What's the next move for the Braves? Closer? Maybe not...

    Thursday, December 8, 2005, 05:50 PM EST [General]

    The Braves have pieced their offense back together less than a week after Rafael Furcal jumped ship to the Dodgers by adding Edgar Renteria in trade with the Red Sox. That really only leaves the bullpen as a major question for the Braves this year, and the loss of closer Kyle Farnsworth to the Yankees didn't help. Well, I believe the solution at closer is already on their roster. Chris Reitsma? No, he has proven to me he is not the guy. But who is. I believe Jorge Sosa may be ready for the challenge

    Let me start by saying this: Renteria is a much better option than Furcal at his value because he allows the Braves to spend money somewhere else where they need it (the Red Sox will pay a portion of Renteria's salary, and he will run the Braves $6 a year for three years). In my mind, Renteria is the perfect replacement for Furcal, as he returns to the National League where he was the best shortstop with St. Louis just a few years ago (yes, even better than Furcal). The Braves have moved Johnny Estrada for bullpen help, and instead will start youngster Brian McCann full time (although, I'm uncertain the guys they got for Estrada can really be considered help). They have released themselves from the multi-million dollar contract of Dan Kolb by shipping him back to Milwaukee, freeing up more money to spend on a closer who can actually close games (which Kolb could not in his 1-year in Atlanta). Okay, so the Braves freed up $3 million in getting rid of Kolb. We'll give them $3 million more dollars because they are paying Renteria $6 instead of the $9 they offered Furcal. Then add in the $6 million they are saving with Chipper Jones' restructured contract. That's $12 million they have saved themselves already at this point in the offseason, money that can be used to spend on what they seem to need most, a quality closer, right? Well, I don't think so.

    With all of the other 8 positions covered, the major offensive question still lies in left field.The Braves still have two second year players lined up to play out there, but Kelly Johnson's still not ready, and Ryan Langerhans, although gritty and determined as he is, is also not the best option the Braves have in left field. So they now have two glaring problems, a closer and a left fielder. So, which one do you address with the $12 million you have already saved?

    The Braves have some depth at starting pitching, despite the injury that will force Mike Hampton to miss all of 2006. After resigning John Thompson, the Braves return a solid top three rotation, along with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz. After that though, the Braves have three starting pitchers left, lefty Horacio Ramirez, second year player Kyle Davies, and flamethrower Jorge Sosa. I think the Braves have to start Ramirez as the number four guy just to make sure they get in another lefty. That leaves Davies and Sosa. Davies proved himself capable in his rookie year, as did Sosa, however, neither seemed to go late into games. I believe the Braves should run Davies out as the number five starter and send the hard throwing Sosa out to the bullpen and close. He has the poise and the heat to close big time games in the Major Leagues, and this decision makes sense as it doesn't cost the Braves any more money than they are already set to pay.

    There are a few players available through free agency that the Braves could acquire to fill in at left field. Jacque Jones. Made $5 million a year in Minnesota last year. Reggie Sanders made $6 playing in St. Louis. These two options are still available after the winter meetings and both would likely want multi-year offers, but the Braves can heavily load the front end of their contracts since they have saved the $12 million this season, and then reduce the salary each year as the contract goes along. Not only does this help the Braves in their attempt to win their 15th consecutive division next season, but it allows the Braves to distribute their $12 million surplus out over a few years, giving themselves a chance to keep winning division titles beyond 2006.

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