OK, wow. My Hogs were awesome Saturday. Was Auburn affected by the early kickoff? Were they flat? Maybe they're still beat up from a physical game against LSU. Or they could have been looking ahead to Florida. I really don't care, that's for Auburn fans to figure out. What matters to me, and I'm sure to all the teams, is who gets to Atlanta and how. I tried to sort this all out, here's what it looks like.
Two-way tie
Auburn-Arkansas - the Hogs go based on their win over Auburn.
Auburn-LSU - Auburn, for their win over LSU
LSU-Arkansas - the winner of the game in LR on November 24.
Three way tie, each team with two losses
This would mean that LSU wins out. If each team has two losses and LSU beats Arkansas, the head-up record is even. Let's look at the possible outcomes.
Auburn - The Tigers must beat either Florida or Georgia, but not both. The first tie-breaker is record in division. If they beat both, it would mean another loss in division, eliminating Auburn from a 3-way tie, because LSU would have only one loss in division. If Arkansas has two losses in division, including LSU, and Auburn does not, Arkansas is eliminated and Auburn goes by virtue of their win over LSU. If all three teams have the same in division record, the tie-breaker for non-divisional teams is comparison with a common opponent. If Auburn beats Florida and the Gators finish ahead of Tennessee, they eliminate LSU. It would then, however go to head to head with Arkansas, and the Hogs would go by virtue of their win over Auburn. If Auburn beats Florida and the Gators finish behind Tennessee, LSU eliminates Auburn by virtue of LSU's win over Tennessee (basically who beat the highest rated non-divisional opponent). So basically in a three way tie, Auburn must hope Arkansas has two in division losses, or else lose to Florida, beat Georgia, then hope Georgia finishes ahead of Tennessee. The bottom line is that Auburn does not fare well in any three-way tie scenario.
LSU - In a three way tie, LSU goes to Atlanta if Auburn doesn't. Any scenario which eliminates Auburn reverts to head-up against the other team, which would be LSU, because of their win over Arkansas. If LSU wins out and Arkansas stumbles somewhere else, the Tigers would more than likely go to Atlanta.
Arkansas - The Hogs would have to hope that Auburn beats Florida, loses to Georgia, and Florida finishes ahead of Tennessee.
Three-way tie, each team with three losses
Just get a gun and shoot us all.
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Hopefully, it will never get to a three way tie, but if it does, what a mess.
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