We SEC supporters consider ourselves to be the most vocal, loyal and die-hard group of college football fans in the country. Fans from other conferences consider us to be arrogant, brash and opinionated, blind to the virtues of any teams but our own. There's much truth in both views, but what about the upcoming season?
We've all been involved in the arguments over conference strength, and last year when it looked like circumstances were going to keep Florida out of the championship game, the battles became fierce and ugly. A late loss by USC and a distaste for a rematch with Michigan convinced the voters to give the nod to the Gators, who then went out and wiped the floor with Ohio State.
SEC fans were ecstatic. With nine bowl teams, a national championship, and LSU's blowout of Notre Dame, the SEC was clearly the best conference in 2006. And as we approach the 2007 season, seven different SEC teams have been ranked in one top 25 poll or another. SEC loyalists seem to be fired up as never before. It's great to be from the South.
Yet for some reason, I can't seem to find my noisemaker and join the parade. Her'es my analysis of the teams, in no particular order.
SEC East
Florida must rebuild almost the entire defense that carried them to last years National title. Nine defensive starters are gone, as well as QB Chris Leak, the all-time passer in Florida history. The Gators were without a top-flight RB in '06, and they're looking for a freshman to step up this fall. The Gators are basically pinning their hopes on Tim Tebow, leading candidate for the Hypesman Trophy. (In case you haven't seen the Hypesman, it's a gold statuette of Tebow shot-putting a football.) Urban Meyer is a great coach, but realistically the Gators look a year away from contending for another NC.
Georgia fans have developed a unique form of Turrett's Syndrome, whereby every 5th word out of their mouth is STAFFORD.. The big kid from Texas improved by leaps and bounds in the second half of '06, but still finished with more interceptions than TD's, an anemic 109 QB rating, and when last seen threw 3 INT's against Virginia Tech. There's also the problem of who does he throw it to. Quick, name one playmaker on Georgia's team.
Tennessee looks on paper to be the class off the SEC East. Eric Ainge had a great comeback year in 2006, after his sophomore slump in '05. But all of his receivers are gone, and Ainge is coming off post-season surgery. He's never been highly mobile, a dangerous attrribute for an SEC QB. And the Vol's struggled last year when he was hurt. Much of Tennesee's success hinges on the gimpy legs of Ainge.
Kentucky had for them what must be considered a break-out year. Eight wins and a bowl victory over Clemson has Wildcat fans trying to figure out how you dribble that ball with the points on the ends. Many have picked the 'Cats as a dark-horse, but until the defense (which was one of the worst in all of football last year,) improves, Kentucky's only hope is for their talented skill players to outscore the opposition.
Steve Spurrier is entering his fourth year at Columbia, and the Gamec0cks look solid on both sides of the ball. Blake Mitchell finally seems to be out of Spurrier's doghouse, and had a sensational second half of the season last year. If the Roosters can survive a brutal road schedule, they may sneak in and win the East.
Vandy has a sensational QB in Chris Nickson. A true run-pass threat, he gives the Commodores a chance. Vandy's problem has always been depth, and that remains the question mark for '07. The schedule and a handful of very talented players gives them a chance to go bowling for the first time in a long time. Just don't bet on it.
SEC West
I haven't been able to jump on the LSU bandwagon.Maybe it's the four first round draft choices lost, including #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell. Tiger fans, and most pundits, think LSU is going to be sensational this fall. Loaded with blue-chip recruits and coming off back-to-back 11 win seasons, there's certainly reason to think the Tigers are for real. The defense is absolutely loaded, and Glenn Dorsey may be the best D-lineman in the country. But there's also that QB, Matt Flynn. A fifth year senior with only one career start, Flynn threw all of 31 passes last season. Forgive me if I want to see him in front of a hostile crowd on the road before I'm convinced. LSU fans say Flynn doesn't have to be great, just solid. But I remember Russell last year having to be great in wins over Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Without his strong arm and ability to shed tacklers, LSU could easily have lost all three of those games. The Tigers also lost two receivers to the first round of the draft, so someone besides stud Early Doucet is going to have to step up. And I have no doubt that at some point this fall Flynn will have to be great to overcome Les Miles' coaching.
Arkansas is an enigma to preseason pollsters. With sensational RB's, including Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden, cat-quick Felix Jones and stud FB Peyton Hillis, the Hog backfield is loaded. Add star WR Marcus Monk, and the Hogs are as good as anyone at the skill positions. But with six key players gone from last year's defense, a shaky QB, and an off-season full of turmoil, most experts have taken a wait-and-see approach with the Razorbacks.
Tommy Tubberville has built the Auburn Tigers into a perrenial top 10 program. Senior QB Brandon Cox has a ton of experience, but has never wowed anyone with his talent. No receivers stepped up last year, and those questions remain. RB Kenny Irons is gone to the NFL, and the O-line features four new starters. Add in a schedule that includes games at Florida, at LSU, at Arkansas and at Georgia, and this will have to be Tommy T's best coaching job yet if this team is going to contend.
Alabama fans are fired up in full force. Lou Saban is viewed as the Savior, and with nine returning offensive starters and a favorable schedule, the Tide faithful are hyped and ready to Roll Tide Roll. But the truth is that 'Bama is still a few players short in the aftermath of their NCAA penalties, and the defense is a major rebuild. Give Saban two or three years and 'Bama will be back, but expecting a division title in '07 is too much too soon.
The Rebels went with youth last fall, and Ole Miss fans have hopes that it wil pay off soon. But head coach Ed Orgeron needs to prove he can coach all that talent he's bringing in. He said something about it the other day, but no one could understand his thick bayou accent. The exact quote was "mxzzle grrn FOOTBALL rararara dssm." Translated it means "Maybe in '08 if our next tranfer QB is better than the last one."
And finally Mississippi State must win soon to save Sylvester Crooms' job. Crooms is a super guy, and as the only black coach at a major Southern university, I'd sure like to see him succeed. Moving up the SEC ladder is really tough, but the Bulldogs have enough experience and talent to make a few waves. Just not enough to get that boat to shore.
___________________________
So, here it is. Why I think the SEC's reputation is at stake.
The SEC faces several key early season OOC games. Oklahoma State travels to Georgia, Missouri travels to Ole Miss, Virginia Tech is at LSU, and South Florida visits Auburn. With all the games at home, it's incumbent on the SEC schools to win the majority of these games. It wouldn't surprise me if we lose them all. And that's some gloom and doom from an SEC fan.