The Miami Heat has started the first 10 games of the 2006-2007 season with a 4-6 record. The disappointing beginning has been punctuated with the loss of Shaquille O'Neal due to left knee surgery. Miami's deficiencies have been exploited by their opponents thus far and have resulted in them being last in the NBA in scoring (89.3 ppg) and scoring differential (a deficit of 9.2 ppg). They are also 29th in shooting (42.0 percent) percentage.
What are the Miami Heat's deficiencies?
Age: Shaquille O'Neal is now in his 14th season and looks to be a shell of his former self. He has come into this season out of shape once more and it may take longer than expected for him to fully recover from knee surgery. Gary Payton is in his 16th season and has been routinely abused by opposing guards. Alonzo Mourning is in his 13th season and is probably ill-equipped to shoulder the majority of minutes now that O'Neal will be out for an extended period of time.
Depth: The Heat chose to stand pat this off-season and failed to acquire anyone worth mentioning. Consequently, they are being stretched thin at many key positions. Jason Williams, when healthy, remains their starting PG but has been bothered by knee tendonitis the past couple seasons resulting in the off-season surgery he underwent. His backup is the aging Gary Payton who at 38 years of age is incapable of the quality production the Heat desperately need.
The Center position is also very questionable. Shaquille's body seems to be increasingly susceptible to injury and his skills are diminishing rapidly. Mourning will be asked to fill the void at the Center position while O'Neal is out but Zo lacks any offensive repertoire to speak of and his health will always be a concern.
Shooting guard and shooting forward are also stretched thin even though Pat Riley has shown sporadic confidence in Dorrell Wright. Wright is exactly the type of player that Miami should have looked to add in the off-season. He is an athletic wingman who has displayed credible defensive abilities. Wade has been asked to carry more of the load than ever before not only because of the absence of O'Neal but because he has no quality backup. He is registering a career high 40.2 minutes a game.
Wade's workload will not decrease even with the return of O'Neal. Dwyane showed the heart of champion in carrying Miami to the NBA championship in last year's playoffs but will it be physically possible for him to do the same for an entire 82 game regular season? I don't think so.
Miami is a questionably legitimate nine deep team. Three of those nine being veterans with 13 or more seasons under their belt.
Shooting: The Heat currently rank 25th in the NBA in three point shooting percentage and dead last (30th) in overall field goal percentage. Jason Williams and Antoine Walker remain streaky outside threats (though either one will fire away from three point line all day). Gary Payton is currently shooting 35% from the field. The absence and decline in skill of Shaquille O'Neal has allowed teams to double and triple team Dwyane Wade resulting in him shooting a career low 44.8% and turning the ball over 4.3 times a game.
Defense: Jason Williams and Antoine Walker are the definition of defensive liability. Gary Payton now looks as if he's running in sand. Dwyane Wade has not shown a defensive killer instinct yet. He is an admirable help side defender and his athletic ability allows him to rack up more than his fair share of steals and blocks but he hasn't shown the tenacity to lock down his opponent. Shaquille has never been a great defender and the slower of foot he gets will mean more time spent on the bench in foul trouble.
The Heat lack the team speed and overall athleticism to keep up with ever growing number of teams who are playing a smaller more up tempo game.
These four areas of deficiency aren't something that can be fixed with the return of O'Neal. They are chronic problems that will plague the Heat all season.
There seems to me a commonly held misconception that Miami will be able to "turn it on" when it matters like last season. This could not be further from the truth.
They are not that good and the majority of the NBA has improved. I, for one am forecasting a very frigid year for the residents of South Beach.
Reserve