Let's play a creative thinking game. Pretend for a moment that you are General Manager of one of the most recognizable teams in all of professional sports. You have recently won a world championship and are consistently in the playoffs, or at least in the running for the playoffs, every year. You have been extremely successful, but with that success comes very high expectations. You have an opportunity this winter to attempt to sign one of the all-time great players at his position in league history; a player who incidentally started his career in your city and left town under bitter circumstances after starring for thirteen seasons. What do you do?
If you are Boston Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, this is the question you are asking yourself today. By not signing a contract with the Houston Astros, and in fact by not even commenting publicly on whether he will return for his 23rd major league season, pitcher Roger Clemens is available, at least theoretically. But would he consider coming full circle and returning to the city he began his big league career in?
At first glance, it would appear unlikely. Clemens departed Boston after the 1996 season totally at odds with the organization. He never forgave then-General Manager Dan Duquette for his "Roger is in the twilight of his career" comment, and made a point to stare into management's suite at Fenway during and after his first successful post-Red Sox appearance in Boston. He has said in the past that, given an opportunity to return to either Boston or New York, he would pick the Yankees over the Red Sox.
This doesn't necessarily rule anything out, however. Anyone who has followed Clemens' career knows that sometimes his mouth and his brain don't always reach consensus on an issue before he speaks out. How else to explain his statement when he was leaving Boston via free-agency after the '96 season that he wanted to move closer to his family in Texas, then signing with the Toronto Blue Jays? It's hard to imagine that he hasn't at least considered capping his Hall of Fame career with the team and in the city where it all started.
His problems with the Red Sox were always with the management team built by Duquette, not the players, fans, or city itself. The management team currently in place in Boston under majority owner John Henry is a far cry from what was in place ten years ago when Clemens left, and has demonstrated a commitment to the fans and players by winning and building for the future at the same time, not an easy thing to do.
Moreover, Roger would be a good fit on this club at this time. Although the offense will no doubt be down from it's historic levels of the last few seasons, the Red Sox will still score plenty of runs. The bullpen should be improved provided Keith Foulke is healthy, so the pressure on a 43 year old pitcher to try to go eight or nine innings consistently should be lessened.
Most intriguingly, the Red Sox boast a group of young pitchers nearly ready to break out, some of whom must remind Roger Clemens a bit of the young guy who came through the system himself a generation ago. Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, and Jon Lester all could be ready this season, or any or all of them may need a bit more seasoning. It could be a mutually beneficial relationship for those young pitchers and Roger, where they would have an opportunity to learn a little from one of the greatest pitchers of the last and current century, and he would have a chance to pass along a little of his vast experience as well.
From the Red Sox perspective, how much are you willing to risk on a pitcher that will turn 44 in August? At some point all the innings Clemens has pitched will surely take their toll, and as mutual funds are so fond of telling us, past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, for a pitcher that holds so many Red Sox club records (wins, games started, innings and strikeouts, to name a few), the statistics actually show he has improved with age. Consider his average yearly performance in the following categories, from his time with Boston contrasted with his performance in the years since:
-----------------------------GS----------W------------L-----------IP-----------K---------ERA
With Boston 1984-96- 29.4--------14.8--------8.5--------213.5-----199.2-------3.06
Post-Boston 1997-05- 33.2--------16.6--------6.8--------214.3-----212.4--------3.22
Clearly, a pitcher with the above numbers over such a long career would be a shot in the arm to any organization. Just as clearly, there are any number of reasons why the pairing of Clemens and Boston might not happen, not the least of which involves compensation. But an incentive-laden contract might limit some of the risk to the organization, while providing a healthy Roger Clemens with earning potential commensurate with someone of his stature in his field.
Finally, an opportunity to pair with Curt Schilling and compete for one final World Series ring might be the perfect way to bring the career of a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer full-circle. In a short series, a healthy Schilling and a healthy Clemens would be as formidable a duo as Schilling and Randy Johnson were in Arizona, or as Schilling and Pedro Martinez were in Boston's own championship run two years ago.
So that's the creative thinking game. You are Boston GM Theo Epstein. What do you do?
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