Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office may have outsmarted themselves with the trade yesterday of Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for outfielder Wily Mo Pena. At first glance, it appears to be a natural for Boston. They lose a starting pitcher, of which they have many, and get in return a young outfielder with tremendous potential who can immediately step in and get regular playing time platooning with Trot Nixon in right field.

But wait....not so fast!

If you look below the surface at the deal, it may not pan out exactly as the Sox anticipate, for the following reasons:

----------1) Pitching depth - Boston was able to pull the trigger on this deal because of the glut of starters on the staff, including Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, David Wells, Tim Wakefield, Matt Clement, Jonathan Papelbon and Arroyo. But if you break the staff down, you see question marks next to virtually every name listed above.
Schilling - A top-of-the-rotation guy when healthy, which he hasn't been since late in the 2004 season. He claims his ankle is totally healed, but what if it's not? He wasn't himself even after he returned at the end of last season and if he doesn't come back strong, that leaves a gaping hole at the top of the rotation.
Beckett - Potentially a staff anchor, he needs to show he can avoid the blister problem he has suffered from in the past and complete a full season of starting every fifth day. Bekett may be the key to the entire staff, particularly if Schilling struggles.
Wells - Two question-marks next to his name. How will he recover from offseason knee surgery, and does he really want to be in Boston in what he says will be his last major league season? As of less than a month ago, he wanted out of town. Now he says he has reconciled himself to finishing his career here, but with a guy who has been a wild card his entire career, who really knows?
Wakefield - Oddly enough, the knuckleballer is the only one of the starters besides Arroyo who doesn't need a question mark next to his name. You know exactly what you will get from this guy, who is all over the club record-book. Wakefield stands third on the Sox alltime list in wins (130), games started (283), innings (2072), and, believe it or not, strikeouts (1480). At season's end, he will have pitched close to 200 innings, won around 15 games, and kept the club within striking distance in most of his starts.
Clement - Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He got off to a blazing start last year, keeping the Sox in the race early. After taking a line drive off his head in one of the uglier scenes of the year, Clement was never the same pitcher. He has been impressive this spring, so maybe his problems are behind him, but he does have a habit of starting fast and finishing slow....
Papelbon - All kinds of potential, but lets see him do it for an entire season.

----------2) Pena's potential - It's a cliche, but "potential" is just another way of saying he hasn't done anything yet. Pena's power numbers are impressive, but in his short career he has struck out an amazing 35% of his total at-bats in the big leagues. If Boston was desperate to add power to the lineup, this might seem like a fair trade-off, but with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz both likely to hit over 40 home runs, that trade-off starts to look a little less palatable. Do the Sox really need to add the second coming of Rob Deer?

----------3) Nixon platoon - In theory, Pena would only play when Boston was facing lefthanded pitching, but Trot Nixon plays every inning like his feet are on fire, so it's only a matter of time before he gets injured running through a wall or running over a catcher. If and when that happens, is Pena ready to be an every-day player?