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    First round predictions and subplots

    Monday, April 7, 2008, 07:05 PM EST [General]

    Thoughts heading into the NHL playoffs.

    -- Hockey fans should be thankful for the Washington Capitals. Since long-time minor league coach Bruce Boudreau took over on Thanksgiving, the Caps have arguably been the league's most exciting team.

    Of course, having Alex Ovechkin helps, but Boudreau allows the Caps to play to their strengths. In a league full of stifling, often dull defensive systems, Washington plays old time hockey. The Capitals are up-tempo, high-scoring, and play a hard-nosed -- yet clean -- physical game.

    Owner Ted Leonsis is not just an owner, he is a fan. Leonsis has been attending games in a red Capitals sweater, while his family has been decked out similarly. Too many owners seem distant, always in suits, and unapproachable. Leonsis is none of that. He is one of us -- a fan who happened to come into money.

    A deep Capitals run would be good for the game. Everyone in this league seemingly emulates a winner, and if the Caps are the ones being emulated, the game will be in much better shape.

    -- Along with the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Caps have become the media darlings over the end of the regular season.

    As a result, NBC has picked up two of their first round games against the Philadelphia Flyers. Games two and five will be telecast on the network -- but both games start prior to noon on the West Coast.

    If the league wants to grow fans in the non-traditional markets of the Pacific time zone, 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. games are not the proper approach. Few, if any, watch hockey at that time of day.

    In an era when the vast majority of people have cable or satellite, what is the big deal about network television? The league would be better off to give those games to Versus and play them in a prime time slot. NFL fans might be used to afternoon games, but this is not the NFL. Hockey is a night game, and to be successful, needs to be marketed as such.

    -- Only two teams scored less goals than the Anaheim Ducks, and both of them are out of the playoffs.

    Columbus and the New York Islanders each scored less than 200 goals, but the defending Stanley Cup champs were tied for 27th in offense with 205 goals.

    Sure, the Ducks have a formidable blueline, with or without oft-suspended Chris Pronger. But can anyone remember the last team to win the Stanley Cup without at least a decent offense?

    Last year's Ducks were not an offensive juggernaut, but were well ahead of this year's pace. The previous two champions -- Carolina and Tampa Bay -- were high octane teams.

    The New Jersey Devils? Guess again. The Devils led the league in regular season goals for when they won the Cup in 2000.

    If the Ducks find a way to win the Stanley Cup with a sub-par offense, look for the game to get stiflingly defensive next season. Yes, even more so than right now.

    Oh, for more teams like the Capitals.

    -- Several NHL teams continue to advertise single-game playoff tickets on sale, just days before the playoffs begin.

    Perhaps most notable is the location of some of those teams -- Detroit, Colorado, and Anaheim. The first two were guaranteed sellouts for much of a generation, while the third city is the defending champion.

    Perhaps it is no coincidence they play in the defensive-oriented Western Conference. Since the midpoint of the 2006-07 season, the new NHL is nothing but a memory in the West, and the entertainment value is not what it could be.

    Offense sells tickets and defense wins championships -- we've all heard that phrase. But for a league that is constantly concerned with its standing in the United States marketplace, perhaps more emphasis needs to be put on the offensive side of the game.

    -- Set those DVRs for extra time -- the low scoring nature of this season could make for some long playoff games.

    A 5-5 game is statistically likely to have a goal scored early in overtime, but the same is not the case for a 0-0 or 1-1 game. To make matters more severe, many teams have taken a defensive approach to regular season overtimes, thanks to the shootout. If that trend does not reverse, look for plenty of double and triple overtime games.

    All we ask of our friends at the NHL offices is to let us know where the overtime will be played. If NBC has to cut to a two-hour pre-game show of a horse race again, let us know ahead of time. Otherwise, those of us who don't watch hockey at 10 in the morning will not have a chance to change our DVR settings, and we will miss the presentation of the Prince of Wales Trophy once again?

    Am I a little bitter yet? Without a doubt.

    Onto the predictions.....

    Western Conference

    1) Detroit over 8) Nashville in five games

    2) San Jose over 7) Calgary in six games

    6) Colorado over 3) Minnesota in seven games

    4) Anaheim over 5) Dallas in six games

    Eastern Conference

    1) Montreal over 8) Boston in five games

    2) Pittsburgh over 7) Ottawa in four games

    3) Washington over 6) Philadelphia in seven games

    5) New York Rangers over 4) New Jersey Devils in six games

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    Varying broadcast qualities help understate hockey's popularity

    Tuesday, April 1, 2008, 08:25 PM EST [General]

    Contrary to popular opinion, the national opinion of hockey in the United States is indeed... popular.

    There is no need to look further than attendance numbers. The NHL's average attendance is virtually neck and neck with the NBA, with the NHL having a slight lead. When percentage of capacities is compared, the difference is greater, as the NHL is in the 93% range while the NBA is below 90%.

    Without question, the NHL has always drawn good crowds. Even in the Original Six era, most arenas were sold out every night. At the same time, the NBA was struggling to gain a footing, often averaging no more than a few thousand fans per night in many cities.

    No, it is not in arena attendance that has caused the media to think hockey is not popular in much of the United States. Instead, it is television ratings.

    Nobody will dispute the NHL's TV ratings could be better, but there are several factors to consider. First and foremost, the reality is, hockey loses more than any other sport when translated from an in-person event to television.

    Hockey is very different from most popular North American sports, sharing certain similarities with only soccer. In both hockey and soccer, the knowledgeable fan is not watching only the puck or the ball, but rather, is focusing more on watching the play develop.

    This is why hockey fans prefer a variety of seats. Some prefer sitting high on the sides. Some prefer low on the ends. Others prefer anything in between.

    Each fan sees the game differently from different perspectives, and their enjoyment is generally greatly increased or decreased based on their positioning.

    On television, there is a great limitation placed on the viewer, as they are only able to watch what the camera shows them. On a good broadcast, especially those in high-definition, the camera angle is wide enough to show most of the players on the ice.

    Increasingly, too many broadcasters -- especially U.S.-based broadcasters who are searching for a way to boost ratings -- are focusing in too much on the puck. If a team has a power play and the point man has the puck, but you cannot see the net at the same time, that is not good camera work.

    When the puck wraps around the boards, the camera does not have to follow the puck's movement, first to the left and then to the right. The preferred method would be to zoom out so the viewer could see the status of the forecheck.

    Camera work is absolutely essential, and many networks get this. HDNet, CBC, TSN, and Rogers Sportsnet generally have outstanding camera work. NBC and Versus can vary from game to game -- sometimes they are decent, but on some occasions, they zoom in to the point where the game is unwatchable. Local FSN broadcasts also vary wildly from game to game and market to market

    In addition, when the camera zooms in more, there is more camera movement. On most new HD televisions, this is a serious issue. Even a plasma television, which has a significantly faster refresh rate than an LCD or DLP, has a much slower refresh rate than traditional tube televisions.

    In plain English, this means more blurring on the television set. When the blurring becomes too strong, a game becomes nearly unwatchable -- even in HD.

    To add to the problem, many announcing teams have quit doing a solid play-by-play, instead opting to tell distracting stories with the occasional break for play-by-play.

    The time for stories is whistles and intermission -- the game needs a play-by-play. There are those who say you can already see what's happening, but this thought has several flaws.

    First and foremost, the fan watching on TV is already struggling to follow the play as a whole because of previously mentioned issues. The fan's focus is typically to watch the play as a whole instead of looking for who is on the ice.

    The play-by-play man is supposed to fill in those gaps, telling the fan who is on the ice and who has the puck. Even in person, many fans find it easier to watch the game with a play-by-play, explaining why so many fans traditionally bring portable radios to games.

    The second issue -- if the play-by-play man never says the players' names, fans do not learn the players. Most fans do not spend hours online researching names and numbers, so the play-by-play man is their way of learning out-of-market teams.

    This issue is especially accented with the current schedule, as fans in each conference have only seen teams from the other conference once in person since the lockout. It is pretty hard to learn teams that way.

    Generally, traditional markets have better play-by-play teams. All Canadian teams, Detroit, Chicago, New York, and Buffalo are among the best. Many non-traditional markets have gotten very bad in recent seasons, and generally, those are the teams with the lowest television ratings.

    There are exceptions, of course. Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, and Phoenix have good broadcast teams, but there are others who would be best left telling their stories on the pre-game show.

    Add it up, and hockey on television just does not compare to hockey in person. And perhaps that is why so many hockey fans choose to watch junior or minor league hockey instead of watching hockey on television.

    Basketball is different -- most fans choose to watch the NBA on television instead of going to a minor league game.

    Check the numbers -- the AHL is once again averaging over 5,000 fans per game. The ECHL averages more than 4,000. The Central Hockey League is a shade under 4,000, while the IHL draws more than 3,400 per game.

    All three major junior leagues draw well with a traditional average attendance of more than 4,000 per game, while the USHL also draws more than 2,500 per game.

    The most prevalent minor league basketball leagues, the NBA's developmental league and the modern version of the ABA, do not post attendance averages, and it is understandable why they do not. While some games draw better, many games draw significantly less than 1,000 fans, with some ABA teams playing games in high school gyms.

    Factor in those numbers, and there are more hockey fans than the TV numbers indicate.

    The fact is, a higher percent of hockey fans will choose developmental leagues in person over the top level of the game on television than in any other sport.

    This does not help the TV networks, but the TV networks could help themselves. To get the die-hard fans to watch more on TV, the aforementioned improvements could be made to broadcasts.

    It is no coincidence the TV ratings are better in many of the markets with better TV coverage. If the league could get every broadcast up to the level of Hockey Night in Canada, the ratings would unquestionably skyrocket.

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    Ersberg latest L.A. hope between the pipes

    Friday, March 7, 2008, 06:40 PM EST [General]

    For some reason, Los Angeles is not an easy place to be a goalie.

    Just ask Dan Cloutier. Or Jason Labarbera. Jean-Sebastien Aubin and Mathieu Garon would agree. A Roman Cechmanek sighting, anyone?

    You can understand why Kings fans are quick to anoint incoming goalies as the next one. Yutaka Fukufuji's time lasted, well, about a half-hour.

    That mix of hopefulness and a fatalist approach might lead to the franchise's latest goaltending hope -- Erik Ersberg.

    If you haven't heard of Ersberg, you aren't alone. Following two seasons in the Swedish Elite League, Ersberg started the year with the Kings' AHL affiliate in Manchester, N.H. He posted a pedestrian 2.92 goals against average and an .897 save percentage in 30 appearances with a mediocre Monarchs squad.

    So you can see why what happened next was unexpected.

    Sure, it has only been four games, but Ersberg has posted a 1.68 goals against and .952 save percentage since being called up to Los Angeles because of an injury to Jason LaBarbera. His most recent performance was an impressive 2-0 shutout against Ottawa Thursday night at Staples Center.

    And it was not a routine shutout. Facing the high-powered Senators, Ersberg faced 40 shots en route to his first NHL win.

    In the process, Ersberg has shown the tools necessary to be an NHL goalie. H stands just 5'11", but his quickness renders that point largely moot. His rebound control has been remarkable -- Kings' captain Rob Blake referred to him as a sponge, while others have referred to him as velcro.

    His lateral movement has been excellent, while he has shown a great amount of confidence between the pipes. Ersberg's smallish stature leads him to play deeper in the net than many larger goalies, but it has proven to be anything but a problem so far.

    Sure, there's a chance Ersberg will be the latest goalie to disappear from Los Angeles as quickly as he arrived. Yet something feels different with Ersberg. Technically, he is solid in almost every way. He is confident. And despite being a newcomer to North America, he is experienced from high-level competition in Sweden.

    Saturday afteroon, the Montreal Canadiens return to Staples Center for the first time in years. Ersberg turns 26 that day, and will likely start against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

    In a strange sort of season, Ersberg gives Kings fans yet another reason for hope. While the defense has been porous at times and the goaltending has been average, the young forwards continue to progress. Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Patrick O'Sullivan, Alexander Frolov, and Michael Cammalleri give the Kings a group of young forwards envied by most NHL teams.

    Jonathan Bernier has been hailed as the future superstar between the pipes, but some feel he is still a year or two away. If Ersberg can even bridge the gap, the Kings go into next season with a lot of promise.

    We've heard it before, no question. The next Kings goalie has arrived.

    Los Angeles hopes this time, that really is the case.

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    Status of the game in your region

    Thursday, February 14, 2008, 07:36 PM EST [General]

    With USA Hockey's Hockey Weekend in America upon us, it seems like a good time to take inventory of the status of the game in each region of the United States.

    Of course, the game is solid in virtually every place across Canada, but the health of the game varies from place to place in the U.S. The interesting thing is, in so many cases, the game is far more prominent in a region's day-to-day life than the media would portray.

    In Southern California, the media often treats hockey as a second-tier sport, but the numbers indicate otherwise. There are nearly 20,000 registered players in California, and the state is second only to Michigan in total number of adults playing the game.

    Aside from the Anaheim Ducks and the Los Angeles Kings, the region has a long history of minor league hockey. While that is on sabbatical this year following the demise of the Long Beach Ice Dogs, a new arena in suburban Ontario, California, is expected to host an ECHL team next fall.

    Youth hockey is booming, and several of the region's major midget AAA teams are among the nation's elite. The Los Angeles Junior Kings, California Wave, and LA Selects have experienced significant success over the past decade, while newcomers California Stars and SoCal Titans show early promise.

    As with many markets, ice time is an issue, but new rinks continue to pop up. The Toyota Sports Center, practice home of the NHL's Kings, is one of the premier small rinks in the nation. Quality and age of other rinks vary considerably, but things appear to be on the right path.

    With increasing numbers each year, hockey is stronger in Southern California than many people realize. Yet at the same time, hockey is a rarity on bar televisions, in the local media, and in the day-to-day conversation of the average resident.

    More than ever, this blog is meant to be interactive -- if you have the time, please post the status of the game as a whole in your region.

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    Modernizing the NHL

    Friday, January 25, 2008, 07:44 PM EST [General]

    During Friday's coach's roundtable session on the NHL Network and NHL Home Ice XM 204, San Jose coach Ron Wilson responded in a curious manner to an interesting question. 

    The thought was, has the NHL suffered from a lack of characters in the game? Specifically, the examples of Tiger Williams riding his stick after a goal and Don Cherry's flamboyant style behind the bench in the 1970s were mentioned. 

    At a time when the league is being criticized for being less exciting and wide-open than it was the first year out of the lockout, Wilson's response came across as somewhat stodgy.

    Wilson said the league operates by its code, and the players know they'll get beat up if they celebrate too much.

    Huh?

    When did this become the No Fun League? Major League Baseball? One of the great things about hockey has always been the emotion of the game, and the enthusiastic goal celebrations of Alex Ovechkin are a big reason why he is arguably the game's most popular player among young fans.

    Baseball has always had a code that has gone too far, one where a player must look solemn and disappointed after hitting a home run. That is, unless it is a walk-off homer, in which case the entire team must bounce like junior  high school girls at home plate.

    Please, don't let hockey come to that.

    With that in mind, here are a few ideas to modernize the game and increase the appeal to the younger crowd:

    1) Encourage display of emotion on the ice.

    When did society become so uptight that celebrating one's own accomplishments became considered disrespectful to your opponents? The NFL has led the way, banning many popular, entertaining, and harmless touchdown celebrations in the name of supposed sportsmanship.

    Wilson's comments Friday indicate that mentality is creeping into hockey. And while hockey has always had a code -- a very effective and logical code for the most part -- goal celebrations were always allowed. Taunting was against the code, as it should be. But celebrating a goal -- slamming oneself against the glass, high-fiving someone in the crowd through the glass, pumping your fist, it doesn't matter -- that was okay.

    And it should be.

    Any of the stars from the 1970s are fine with goal celebrations -- just ask Phil Esposito. But along the way, society has gotten more sensitive, and some take celebrating as a form of taunting -- which seems like a very illogical connection.

    As someone once said, here's a solution: if you don't want your opponent to celebrate, don't let him score.

    Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk are among the most demonstrative players when it comes to celebrating goals, and they are considered among the most electrifying and enthusiastic players in the league. There's a connection there.

    2) Ditch the suits.

    Think about where you see suits in day-to-day life. Salesmen, politicians, executives of publicly-owned corporations.

    While those people may be great, upstanding people, they all have one thing in common. They have a motivation for swaying your thoughts one way or the other.

    As a result, those people receive their fair share of skepticism, and it often takes more effort for them to gain people's trust.

    It has been more than two decades since the vast majority of people wore a suit to work every day, yet NHL players still come and go from the rink in suits. Team employees,- even account representatives, typically wear suits. Announcers wear suits -- Rogers Sportsnet notwithstanding, as they are the one network that has finally relaxed their dress code.

    To many young people, suits are a barrier. They do not wear suits; their friends do not wear suits. In fact, the term "suit" has become a term referring to out-of-touch, Ivory Tower-like executives. Just listen to Toronto fans grumble about the "suits" in the lower level of the Air Canada Centre -- it is not meant to be a compliment.

    Most MLB teams have account executives and most team employees in golf shirts, while soccer takes casual a step further. The U.S. Men's National Team has been known to arrive to games in... gasp... golf shirts and shorts.

    During the post-game of the NFL conference finals, players appeared in what seemed to be appropriate attire given the cold conditions. Sweaters, turtlenecks, and other business casual apparel was the order of the day.

    And it looked fine. In fact, it looked.... approachable.

    Which should be the goal.

    3) Allow access for Internet reporters - for all 30 teams.

    Over the past three  seasons, many NHL teams, particularly those in non-traditional markets, have seen their media coverage dwindle. So why do some NHL teams still limit access for Internet-based reporters, other than those who are from websites who are affiliated with the same major media outlets that ignore the sport?

    It is a new time for the media in general, and nowhere is that more true than in hockey. Websites such as hockeybuzz.com and insidehockey.com have replaced the print media for many fans, yet in some NHL cities, their reporters would have difficulty getting media credentials.

    For example, the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks struggle to get more media coverage than high school volley ball in their home market. Yet the Ducks explicitly state Internet-based reporters cannot get media credentials unless they are affiliated with a major media outlet.

    It simply does not make sense, especially in markets that struggle to get suitable coverage.

    The sooner all 30 teams adopt the Internet, the better. To be sure, many, if not most, teams understand this. But there is still work to be done.

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