Host: Welcome to the hottest new show on television, the one that pits precocious middle schoolers against people who were too dumb to get on any other reality shows. This week, we offer a new twist: the kids will be competing against NFL personalities.

It's time for our first matchup. Here's the scenario. You are a 32-year old NFL quarterback coming off a bad season. You were just traded to new team, but you are seriously considering retirement instead. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: In recess, I play on a football team. Playing football is fun. My 32-year dad is on an insurance sales team. Selling insurance is not fun. Anyone who chooses selling insurance, or managing a construction company, or waiting until his money runs out and then selling his autograph for $5 a pop at sports card shows is just crazy. I would keep playing football.

Contestant "Jake:" I'm tired of football and I don't want to play anymore. I don't even want to sit on a bench for a year or two and collect a big salary while retaining the $5 million portion of my signing bonus that I may forfeit by retiring. I won't be installing patios for a living in three years. I'm gonna be a television personality. Everybody wants a television analyst with a beard that looks like a squirrel's nest.

Host: Sorry, Jake. The fifth grader wins this round easily.

Now for our next scenario: Your team just went 14-2 but lost in the playoffs. You are a general manager who can't get along with your head coach. You give the coach a vote of confidence after the playoff loss, but a few weeks later you find that you still can't see eye-to-eye with him. What do you do?

Fifth Grader: That's easy. In school, we are taught to put differences aside and work together. When we do group projects, we get grades on how well we divide responsibilities and how well we cooperate. If the team is playing well, the general manager must work with the coach, and they must share credit and blame. Plus, if the general manager waits too long and tries to fire the coach, all of the good replacements will be gone. In gym class, we learn that you never want to pick last, or else you get stuck with someone like Norv Turner running your dodge ball team.

Contestant "A.J.:" Fire the unreasonable son-of-a-gun. Hire whoever is left on the market. Risk tearing down everything we've built in the last four years. I'll show fans who the real football expert is around here, just you wait and see.

Host: Sorry, A.J., we have to go with the fifth grader on that one.

Okay, here's another scenario. You are an NFL owner, and you are signing free agents. You have a chance to sign a left tackle, a former Cardinals first round pick who has been a disappointment for his entire career. What do you do?

Fifth grader: My math teacher told me that money is important, and I shouldn't waste all of it on bubble gum and Avatar action figures. This player sounds like the kind of toy who looks great in the commercial but doesn't quite work right when you bring it home. If a toy like that comes with a Happy Meal, then it is great, but if you spend too much money on toys like that, then you cannot afford really good ones.

Contestant "Jerry:" A big left tackle who might be good? Pay him $50-million. Give him the largest bonus in team history. And put him at guard or right tackle, where he can't possibly be worth that kind of money. Sure, that will shake up the team's salary structure a little, but we don't have any complainers or malcontents on our roster, so no worries. In August, the tackle and T.O will be hanging out in the whirlpool with phantom hamstring pulls while the rest of the team sweats through training camp, but I'm sure my new coach and novice offensive coordinator will be able to manage the situation.

Host: Oops, sorry. The fifth grader wins again.

Okay, here's our final scenario: You are hanging out at a Vegas strip club and have the urge to throw $81,000 around on stage. The promoter decides that the money is his and puts it in a big trash bag. What do you do next?

Fifth grader: Well, I'm a little young to be talking about strip clubs, but hey, this is FOX. I know I am not supposed to throw money around. And my uncle once told me that as soon as the cash hits the stage, it belongs to the club, not the dude who threw it. And most important, I know that the best way to avoid trouble is to just walk away from it. The moment you walk into a strip joint with entourage, a rapper, and enough money to buy a loaded Lexus, you are just asking for trouble.

Contestant "Pacman:" First of all, let me say that I'm a victim in all this. I was the one attacked by the bouncers. My stylist got pushed into a cactus, for goodness sakes, and those things are spiky. Anyway, what red-blooded American man wouldn't blow 81 grand on a chance to "make it rain" for visual effect? And who wouldn't expect to get his money back? How would I know that a major fight would break out and that someone would get seriously injured? For some reason, trouble just keeps finding me.

Host: I'm sorry, but the fifth grader wins again. It looks like a clean sweep for the kids, folks. Tune in next week when a 11-year old demonstrates the proper way to dispose of a water bottle before approaching airport security.

post by Mike Tanier

Remember when we all used to wait for June 1, when all kinds of veterans would be cut for salary cap purposes? Teams waited for that day so they could postpone the cap charges by a year. Nowadays teams are doing a much better job of managing the cap, so nobody really needs to push things back by waiting until June 1 to cut someone. Instead, teams seem to be using March 1 as the deadline, so they can officially open up room in the budget before free agency starts on March 2. As an added bonus, cutting a veteran now is just a nicer thing to do, because it is easier to find another job in March than to find another job in June. So a lot of players were cut over the last couple days. Some of them were surprising, some not. I thought I would take a look at Football Outsiders similarity scores to see what they suggest about these players in the future, should they sign with new teams. Unfortunately, similarity scores are limited to "skill players" on offense. In my opinion, the best player cut over the last couple of days is clearly linebacker Joey Porter, but we can't do one of these for him. Similarity scores were first created for baseball by Bill James. (Honestly, what wasn't first created for baseball by Bill James?) The basic idea is that we compare players by subtracting a certain amount of points from 1000 based on the differences between statistics: receptions, yards, carries, passes, completion percentage, you name it. The football similarity scores also subtract points for every year difference in age and every year difference in NFL experience. (One player might come out as a redshirt senior, another as a non-redshirt junior, so these can be different.) The goal there is to get a list of similar players at a similar point in their careers. But even better, you can get a list of similar career paths by looking at two or three years in a row. Obviously, we're using standard stats, so nothing is adjusted for opponent and we don't consider whether a receiver had to suffer with a bad quarterback in a particular year, or anything like that. This is not for hard research, but it's a fun little tool, and it does prove useful. (For example, the list of running backs similar to Shaun Alexander from 2003-2005 includes a lot of guys who got injured the next year.) My database for similarity scores goes from 1978-2006. (We start in 1978 because of the liberalization of passing rules that year.) 1982 and 1987 get pro-rated for the strike. I'll list the top 10 most similar players for each guy, not counting other players from 2004-2006 -- those guys are listed, but not counted in the top 10. I'm only listing the third year for each guy. Joe Horn 1) Yancey Thigpen, 1999 Oilers 2) Alfred Jenkins, 1983 Falcons 3) John Stallworth, 1986 Steelers 4) Stanley Morgan, 1988 Patriots 5) Frank Lewis, 1983 Bills 6) Steve Largent, 1989 Seahawks 7) Fred Barnett, 1996 Dolphins 8) Jimmy Smith, 2003 Jaguars 9) Rob Moore, 1999 Cardinals X) Muhsin Muhammad, 2006 Bears 10) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets This is a list of great veteran receivers, like Horn. You've got a couple Hall of Famers, and some franchise legends like Morgan and Smith. But four of these guys didn't play the next year. Five of them were part-time players the next year, which is also true of the next couple players on the list (J.T. Smith, Roy Green, Terance Mathis). Only Jimmy Smith rebounded to his prior level of play with 1,172 yards and six touchdowns. Joe Horn may be useful next year, but after two down years and lots of nagging injuries, I don't think you can trust him to be more than your third option. Eric Moulds 1) Terance Mathis, 2001 Falcons 2) Curtis Conway, 2003 Jets 3) Andre Reed, 1999 Bills 4) Anthony Carter, 1991 Vikings X) Rod Smith, 2006 Broncos 5) Tim Brown, 2003 Raiders X) Keyshawn Johnson, 2006 Panthers 6) Drew Hill, 1992 Falcons 7) Keenan McCardell, 2002 Bucs 8) Troy Brown, 2003 Patriots 9) Webster Slaughter, 1995 Chiefs 10) Ahmad Rashad, 1982 Vikings This is another list of good veteran receivers, although not as good as the list for Horn, which makes sense, since Moulds in general was not as good as Horn. Like the list for Horn, one player on the list did continue to play at a high level, Keenan McCardell. Troy Brown became a two-way player the next year, but I don't think Eric Moulds will be doing that. In general, this is the same deal as above: most of these guys were part-time receivers the next season. The difference is that fewer of these guys retired, maybe because when you play at the level of Steve Largent, it's easier to quit knowing you have nothing else to prove. Keenan McCardell X) Joe Jurevicius, 2006 Browns 1) Ricky Proehl, 2002 Rams 2) Nat Moore, 1986 Dolphins 3) Roy Green, 1991 Eagles 4) John Taylor, 1994 49ers 5) Mike Sherrard, 1995 Giants 6) Mark Clayton, 1992 Dolphins 7) Ed McCaffrey, 2003 Broncos 8) Roger Carr, 1981 Colts 9) Qadry Ismail, 2002 Colts 10) Mel Gray, 1981 Cardinals Yes, the most similar player to Keenan McCardell is another active player. Frankly, none of these players is really that similar to McCardell. For example, McCardell was 36 last season, older than all 11 players listed above. McCardell has one of the strangest career patterns in NFL history. The Browns goofed around with him for three years, playing him mostly on special teams. They finally had him start in 1995, and he put up a good but not great year of 709 yards and four touchdowns. Then he signed a free agent contract with Jacksonville, and managed at least 1,100 yards in four of the next six years -- even though he was the number two receiver on the team behind Jimmy Smith. So at 32, he signs with Tampa Bay. Personally, he has a decline year, only 670 yards, but he also wins a Super Bowl title. Looks like a guy who finally got a ring just as his career was about to hit the same place Joe Horn has been in the last two years, right? Except McCardell then goes and has the best season of his entire career at age 33. When Keyshawn Johnson threw his little hissy fit, McCardell became the number one receiver on his team for the first time in his entire career -- in his TWELFTH season. Wait, there's more! He takes this positive momentum and holds out for half a season. He wins out, gets traded to San Diego, plays okay in a few games, then the next year at age 35 he has another great year including a career-high 9 touchdowns. Who the hell else has a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35? One year later, in 2006, he finally collapsed, and by the end of the year he was barely on the field. What's really strange is that if I listed every appearance by a player, rather than just the most similar season, 4 of the top 14 most similar three-year spans to Keenan McCardell 2004-2006 belong to Ricky Proehl in any three-year period between 2000 and 2005. So if McCardell wants to sign somewhere next year and play in the Ricky Proehl role, it's there for the taking. I hear the Colts need a Ricky Proehl to replace, you know, the actual Ricky Proehl. Otherwise, it's retirement time. Jamal Lewis 1) Rodney Hampton, 1995 Giants 2) Jerome Bettis, 1999 Steelers 3) Mike Pruitt, 1983 Browns 4) Adrian Murrell, 1998 Cardinals 5) Sammy Winder, 1987 Broncos 6) Joe Morris, 1988 Giants X) Thomas Jones, 2006 Bears 7) Mike Rozier, 1988 Oilers 8) Thurman Thomas, 1996 Bills 9) George Rogers, 1985 Redskins 10) Earl Campbell, 1983 Oilers You look at that list, and you say, "Wow. Jamal Lewis has a future. Jerome Bettis? Jerome Bettis had some great years since 1999." Well, don't be quite so optimistic. Like Keenan McCardell, Jerome Bettis has had a particularly unique career. Very few players have been burnt out by a high number of carries, then worked their way back to their previous level of performance. Bettis did it TWICE, in 2001 and then again in 2004. Could Jamal Lewis do that? Well, he was great back when he was great, right? But so were the other guys on this list. Other than Bettis, what you have here is a list of a lot of players who were great in their youth and then declined in their late 20s, but kept on plugging along with 200-carry years at 3.6-3.8 yards per carry. George Rogers is the only one of these players to average more than 4.1 yards per carry the next season. You've got the aborted Joe Morris Cleveland comeback, Earl Campbell getting traded to New Orleans... ah, memories. If you want to be relevant in 2007, Jamal, get on the phone to Jerome Bettis immediately and ask for training tips. Drew Bledsoe 1) Ron Jaworski, 1986 Eagles 2) Jim Plunkett, 1984 Raiders 3) Bobby Hebert, 1994 Falcons X) Kerry Collins, 2006 Titans 4) Phil Simms, 1991 Giants 5) Brad Johnson, 2004 Bucs 6) Danny White, 1986 Cowboys 7) Tommy Maddox, 2004 Steelers X) Trent Green, 2006 Chiefs 8) Ken O'Brien, 1992 Jets 9) Archie Manning, 1981 Saints 10) Jeff Hostetler, 1997 Redskins Dude, it's over. Post by Aaron Schatz

It was perhaps the most underreported story of the 2007 Scouting Combine - and when we all look back in, say, five years, it may be the most important. For the first time, members of the accredited football media not directly employed by teams or the NFL were allowed access into the RCA Dome for the quarterback drills. The purpose was for each of the 30 reporters to write reports on one specific player; perhaps in order that the NFL could see how this additional access to, and coverage of, the super-controlled process might affect the way in which people think about the most important pre-draft scouting event. From an analytical perspective, what most people get from those who are actually in the Dome is the quickstep, multi-tasking angle put forth by the NFL Network, the generally sanitized and easily digestible versions one would see on official team sites, or the takes from independent draft analysts who must focus on the past performances, or future Combine film of players, since they haven't been able to get in the Big Room and see the real thing. But as anyone knows, there's a limited perspective you get from watching film. Football requires a wide-angle view, and that's why coaches' tape is so important for the actual eleven-on-eleven games. Even when it comes to a Combine quarterback drill, where future NFL signal callers throw passes to receivers running different routes, one scout with over thirty years of experience told me how difficult it can be to watch the entire progression of a play with a strict evaluating eye. Though I was at the Media Room at the Indianapolis Convention Center along with more than 300 others, I was not one of the fortunate few asked to see the drills in person. However, I talked to an old friend who was - NFLDraftScout.com Senior Draft Analyst Rob Rang. Rob told me that the reporters were brought into a luxury box on the other side of the dome from where the drills were actually happening, which made it tough to get a good read, Even so, and especially for someone with Rob's ability to see things in players that others might not, the experience was a revelation, especially as the receivers ran their way on longer routes. As a member of the Pro Football Writers of America, I was given the opportunity to join the pool of those who transcribed two interviews from the podiums and round tables. In return, I would be given access to all other transcripts, and the pool report put together by those who were allowed in the dome. What I saw in those reports was an intriguing addition to the draft coverage I study each year. Two in particular piqued my interest: Boise State QB Jared Zabransky ("On 'go' routes down the left side of the field, Zabransky hit Illinois State's Laurent Robinson and Ryne Robinson of Miami (Ohio) in stride. When drills were switched to the right side, he was high on two of his three passes, resulting in incompletions. His third was on target.") USC WR Steve Smith ("One of Smith's most impressive catches came in the 'quick slant' drill. Nebraska's Zac Taylor delivered a low pass that Smith went down and caught. He made the catch and retained possession as he tumbled to the ground. Running the "in route" drill to the left, he snatched an on-target pass from Boise State's Jared Zabransky with his hands and cut upfield.") And there it is, in a nutshell - a better way to bridge the gap between the beginning and end of an isolated forward pass on a near-empty field, and what the eye doesn't see in-between. More eyes, trained to see what needs to be seen. More reports filed soon after these drills, and an exploded view of the action from inside. Ten years ago, Combine coverage consisted of various reporters hanging out in the hallways, waiting to ask scattered questions of players and coaches. Then, there was a Media Room, which didn't even have wi-fi until this year (can you imagine e-mailing multiple 5 MB audio files over a dial-up line?). It's amazing how the coverage of this event has developed, and how much further it can go. When that journey is taken, and independent media is allowed in for more of the workouts, you may witness an entirely new depth and breadth of coverage, roughly equivalent to what DVOA and DPAR have become in place of the old quarterback ranking system. Post by Doug Farrar

Stephen Shaw: I was just looking through my copy of Pro Football Prospectus and was trying to find completion percentages broken down by distance of pass, short, medium, long, and bomb. Is that info available?

Aaron Schatz: Sure. I'll even do you one better by showing the best and worst quarterbacks of 2006 at each distance. Right now, the data still doesn't include Weeks 16-17, but nearly every game from Week 1 through Week 15 is all charted and in this data.

Here are the general completion percentages for the league in 2006:

• Short (5 yards or less): 78%
• Mid (6-15 yards): 63%
• Deep (16-25 yards): 49%
• Bomb (26+ yards): 29%

What we're measuring here is completion percentage based on the length a pass goes in the air, not the total yardage gained on a play. If these percentages seem high, remember they don't include passes where the intended length of the pass can not be determined: throwaways, tipped at line, and hit in motion.

Here's a look at which quarterbacks had the best and worst completion percentage based on our current partial data. I'm using the top 40 quarterbacks in terms of charted passes.

Best Short

• J.P. Losman: 86.9%
• Carson Palmer: 86.0%
• David Carr: 86.0%
• Charlie Frye: 86.0%
• Ben Roethlisberger: 84.1%

Worst Short

• Andrew Walter: 65.6%
• Vince Young 69.0%
• Drew Bledsoe: 69.2%

Best Mid

• Trent Green: 72.1%
• Tony Romo: 72.0% (remember, this does not include Weeks 16-17)
• Brad Johnson: 71.6%
• Alex Smith: 70.5%
• Aaron Brooks: 70.2%

Worst Mid

• Bruce Gradkowski: 52.3%
• Donovan McNabb: 53.8%
• Brett Favre: 54.4%

Best Deep

• Drew Brees: 66.0%
• Philip Rivers: 64.4%
• Carson Palmer: 62.0%
• Donovan McNabb: 61.7%
• Tony Romo: 61.2% (with Drew Bledsoe right behind, oddly enough)

Worst Deep

• Jason Campbell 26.3%
• Byron Leftwich 32.0%
• Bruce Gradkowski 32.2%

Best Bomb (small sample size on these)

• Drew Brees 57.1%
• Steve McNair 50.0%
• Carson Palmer: 48.5
• Peyton Manning: 47.4%
• Tony Romo: 45.8%

Worst Bomb

• Daunte Culpepper: 0% (0 for 9)
• David Garrard: 10.0%
• Vince Young: 10.7%

Hey, remember when people thought that Drew Brees was smart and easily coachable, but didn't have the arm needed to make long-range throws in the NFL? Heh, that was funny.

Post by Aaron Schatz

If you read the FO blog regularly, you may remember that, halfway through the season, we introduced very early results from our game charting project. And surprisingly, those results had Fred Thomas as one of the better cornerbacks in the league in the early going. It was surprising because he's never been thought of as very good, and even more surprising as the season went on because Thomas was clearly one of the most flammable cornerbacks in the league in November and December.

Well, I think I have discovered why the early numbers were positive on Thomas. I just finished charting the second half of Carolina's Week 4 win over New Orleans, which was one of the unfinished games in the charting project. And Thomas sucked enough in this game to make up for the entire rest of the first month of the season.

At no time did Thomas get burned deep, except when he bit hard on a flea-flicker and completely left his man. Instead, this game showed the other problem with a bad cornerback. Because Thomas had to give so much room to Steve Smith (or sometimes Keyshawn Johnson) in order to prevent getting burned, he gave up tons of completions on hook routes and comeback routes.

Over the course of the game, we have 14 passes with Thomas in coverage: 11 to Steve Smith, 3 to Keyshawn Johnson. 13 of them were caught, and the 14th was caught but Steve Smith was sliding out of bounds so it was overturned on replay. Including the overturned catch as zero, the average play gained 8.2 yards. Based on the usual FO markers for success, 11 of the 14 passes were successful for the Panthers, but not one gained more than 17 yards.

9 of the 13 catches had no yards after catch, and 3 of the catches that had yards after catch were either screens or quick hitches (a.k.a. the "smoke" route) that are called because the cornerback is playing too far back off his man. It was just hook after hook. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Run, turn, catch, tackle. Over and over.

I haven't heard the Saints mentioned in the Nate Clements sweepstakes. Nor have I heard them mentioned as possible trade partners to get Dre' Bly out of Detroit. But they should seriously consider one or the other, because that cornerback spot is the biggest hole on the team going into 2007.

Post by Aaron Schatz