Pac-Man Jones is going to take a major hit in the wallet now that commissioner Roger Goodell has suspended him for the year without pay. But let's talk about the other people who will be heavily affected by this decision: The Tennessee Titans players, coaches and fans.

Remember how good everybody felt about the Tennessee Titans at the end of last season? There's now very little chance of that carrying over into 2007. Pac-Man Jones was a major distraction, but he was also the best player on that team. He wasn't a year or two away from being a shutdown corner -- he already was a shutdown corner, the best one in the NFL outside of Denver.

Our game charting numbers for 2006 are now very close to complete; we're missing eight games out of the entire season. Look at how Pac-Man Jones rated compared to the league's other corners.

Yards allowed per pass attempt (minimum 48 passes)

• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 5.4 yds/att
• Jason Craft, NO: 5.5 yds/att
• R.W. McQuarters, NYG: 5.6 yds/att
• Walt Harris, SF: 5.9 yds/att
• Nate Vasher, CHI: 5.9yds/att
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 5.9 yds/att
• Nick Harper, IND: 6.0 yds/att
  
• Asante Samuel, NE: 6.2 yds/att

Stop rate (stopping plays short of 40% of yards on first, 60% on second, 100% on third)

• Jason Craft, NO: 64%
• Pac-Man Jones, TEN: 63%
• Al Harris, GB: 62%
• Champ Bailey, DEN: 61%
• Courtland Finnegan, TEN: 61%
• Charles Tillman, CHI: 60%
• Mike McKenzie, NO: 60%
• Chris McAlister, BAL: 60%

The Titans can take some solace in the fact that they already signed Nick Harper to be Pac-Man's partner if he stayed, and Pac-Man's replacement if he was suspended. But Harper allowed very few yards per pass in part because people were throwing ahead of him in zone coverage (we count those passes as half-credit). Courtland Finnegan is promising, but at 48 passes he barely hits the minimum here. Like Jason Craft and Mike McKenzie R.W. McQuarters (sorry about the earlier mistake, Saints fans -- Aaron), he's a nickel back usually facing lesser receivers. The other names here are practically a who's who of the best cornerbacks in the league, although it is missing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden (injured part of last year) and Nate Clements and Rashean Mathis (who are just below these rankings in both stats).

Say what you will about his personality, but Jones is an exceptionally talented football player. Very few starting cornerbacks reach this level of performance in their second year. He was only going to get better in 2007. Now he's gone, and a lot of Tennessee's playoff hopes are gone with him.

You might not feel bad for the Titans -- after all, didn't they know about Pac-Man's troubles when they drafted him? Yes, they did. But a lot of players who get in trouble in college at the age of 20 turn out to be fine when they get older. Plenty of NFL players come from bad neighborhoods, and have friends still in those neighborhoods, but clean up their act when they hit the pros. The Titans just had the bad luck to find one of those who didn't. The better he got as a player, the worse his act got off the field.

Post by Aaron Schatz

Upon hearing that Marshall Faulk officially retired, I was curious to see his place in history. Whenever I want historical information, I start at the excellent website Pro Football Reference. What I found on Faulk was what you would expect, namely he was an amazing player. More interesting was a finding on this page dealing with various leaders in yards from scrimmage. Much to my surprise, Faulk's replacement in St. Louis, Steven Jackson, gained the fifth most yards from scrimmage in history during a single season.

I watch a fair number of Rams games and was well aware that Jackson had a Pro Bowl-caliber season, but I did not realize he was doing anything historic. His total ranked only behind Faulk himself in 1999, Tiki Barber in 2005, LaDainian Tomlinson in 2003, and Barry Sanders in 1997. Not bad company at all.

Looking at those five dates, however, gives immediate pause as to the historical significance of Jackson's efforts. Quite simply, today's NFL places increased pressure on a single running back. Furthermore, the running back is featured in the passing offense at a much higher rate. Of the top 21 yards from scrimmage seasons of all time, 16 have taken place in the last 10 years. Even more amazing, four of the top 21 took place last season. Tomlinson ranks sixth all time, Larry Johnson 19th, and Frank Gore 21st.

What struck me about that total is that this was the year that the NFL was supposedly buying into multiple running backs. The presence of four split-carry situations in the Conference Championship Games led to numerous articles praising this phenomenon. Many at Football Outsiders have been calling for this sort of arrangement for years, in large part to avoid wearing down the primary back. I wanted to believe it was true, but a deeper look shows that radical change is not likely coming.

The copycat NFL was supposed to follow this trend, but two months into the off-season, it appears that the teams in the Conference Championship game themselves are not even following the trend themselves. The Super Bowl Champion Colts let Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency without much of an effort to retain him and with no obvious in-house solution to replace him. The Bears traded Thomas Jones to the Jets for draft picks and have no established back-up to Cedric Benson. The Patriots cut Corey Dillon leaving only Laurence Maroney and third-down back Kevin Faulk. Only New Orleans kept both of their running backs, and there, Reggie Bush's versatility makes it easier to play them both at the same time.

Of course, we could have seen this coming. As recently as 2005, the Colts gave 360 carries to Edgerrin James while the Bears gave Jones 314 in 15 games. The Patriots in 2004 gave Dillon 345 in 15 games. Clearly those coaching staffs were not afraid to ride a workhorse back. All three will have at their disposal young legs to lean on next year and will likely push those backs hard.

Overall last season, 10 running backs had 300 carries compared with 10 in 2005 and nine in 2004. Of the 9 in 2004, five have since missed at least six games in a season due to injury. Admittedly, these numbers are down from the peak of 13 in 2003, but that year was the exception. Nine backs had over 300 carries in both 2001 and 2002.

The failure of teams to adapt appears to be a mistake. The success of the playoff teams can easily be explained by other factors; the teams had three of the game's five best quarterbacks for one. More persuasive is the fact that of the top 10 teams in rushing offense DVOA, only two had a running back with 300 carries, San Diego with Tomlinson and New York with Barber. Of note, their back-ups, Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs, ranked first and eighth in DVOA (value on a per play basis) indicating that the offensive lines played a large role in each team's overall ranking.

Still, despite the success of these teams who split carries, the workhorse back appears here to stay. As long as that workhorse is also factored in the passing game, the single-season leaderboard for all-purpose yards will remain in constant flux. Jackson may yet suffer the same fate as William Andrews. The former Atlanta Falcon ranked sixth on this list from 1985 to 1997 and now finds himself 22nd.

Hopefully, Jackson does not mimic Andrews in another way. Coming off a 331 carry, 56 catch season in 1983, Jackson blew his knee out in training camp the next season. He gained only 249 yards from scrimmage the rest of his career.

Post by Ned Macey

Mount Ephraim, NJ -- Insurance adjuster Brad Anderson broke out in a cold sweat while surfing the Internet on Monday afternoon. He felt a tingling in his neck. He feared he was having a heart attack.

"I read on Pro Football Talk that the Eagles were going to trade for a Takeo Spikes," he said. "A linebacker. An actual starting linebacker. Suddenly, I saw spots in front of my eyes." Alertly, he took a glycerine tablet and called 9-1-1. When he arrived at the hospital, he found that he was just one of hundreds of Eagles fans hospitalized by the team's recent spurt of off-season activity. The problem has become so widespread that the Center for Disease Control had dubbed it SAOSSD: Surprisingly Active Off-Season Stress Disorder.

"I've never seen anything like this," said Dr. James Albright of the newly opened Free Agency Trauma Center at Einstein Medical Center. "Over the last two weeks, we've treated dozens of patients for shock and heart palpitations. But when the Spikes trade hit, our ER looked like a M*A*S*H unit. There were guys in green shirts everywhere, just kind of flailing around and twitching."

The outbreak began when the Eagles signed receiver Kevin Curtis two weeks ago. SAOSSD cases escalated when the team signed Montae Reagor. But the Spikes deal created a flashover situation. "It was too much, too soon," Albright explained. "In Washington, they are inoculated against this kind of off-season. But March in Philadelphia is usually the time to debate the merits of Jabar Gaffney or hail the return of Shawn Barber. The affect on Philly fans is like shoveling 35 inches of snow after a winter without physical exertion. It's potentially dangerous."

Dr. Sylvester Harczynski agrees. Harczynski owns a degree in Philadelphia Fan Psychology from Temple University, a degree he earned by listening to local sports talk radio until he was declared clinically insane (17.5 minutes). "The Eagles lulled their fans into a false sense of security by letting Jeff Garcia, Rod Hood, and Donte Stallworth walk, then replacing them with Bethel Johnson. Fans were ready to go about their early spring business: complaining about the Phillies and vilifying Donovan McNabb. But the Curtis, Reagor, and Spikes deals created a whiplash effect."

The effect can be seen all over the Philadelphia area. "I can't handle this. I can't handle this," Upper Darby bartender Joe Klein said while hyperventilating into a paper bag. "I mean, they needed receivers and defenders, and they signed receivers and defenders. It just doesn't make sense." Klein was treated at Einstein and released later in the day. "I don't know what came over me. I mean, I handled the Terrell Owens-Jevon Kearse off-season well. I guess my resistance was lowered by one too many Matt Schobel signings."

Albright warns that if you are an Eagles fan who is feeling the onset of SAOSSD, you should take steps to ward off an all-out attack. First, lie down. Second, avoid the Philadelphia Daily News at all costs. Finally, download old press conferences in which Andy Reid says "I'm happy with Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett as my wide receivers," or "Dhani Jones is doing a fine job at linebacker." Most of all, says Allbright, "don't try to be a hero. Don't read mock drafts or search the Internet for other trade rumors. Remember that other teams sign free agents all the time, and that it is a natural part of football."

Anderson did his best to heed Albright's advice, but SAOSSD is a pernicious illness. "It's no big deal, really," Anderson said while in the recover room. "A decent wide receiver. Another small defensive tackle. A good-but-often injured linebacker. It's not like they filled their need for a power back behind Brian Westbrook. Now if they drafter Brian Leonard ... wow ... a Rutgers guy ... big all-purpose runner ... that would be ... ugh ... uggggh," Anderson was quickly rushed to the emergency room and treated with exposure to 50 minutes of Mike McMahon highlights.

Michael Perez: Looking through the DVOA rankings for wide receivers, Torry Holt seems awfully far down on the list, including a negative DVOA!  Though Rams games are not ones I watch consistently, I was under the anecdotal impression he was a top tier receiver.  Is he overrated?

Aaron Schatz: Interesting question. We've always thought of Torry Holt as a top tier receiver -- in fact, as perhaps the most consistent top tier receiver. From 1999-2005, Torry Holt had more combined DPAR than any other wide receiver in the NFL, and he led the league in DPAR as recently as 2003.

However, there's no question that his numbers have slipped in the last two years. Before 2005, Holt had never averaged less than 14 yards per catch, but he averaged 13.0 in 2005 and 12.8 n 2006. The other thing to drop was his catch rate. He caught more than 60% of intended passes every year until 2006. Last year, he caught 52% of intended passes, the lowest of anyone on the Rams.

There's a reasonable argument to be made that Holt isn't playing any worse. What we are seeing here may be the focus of defenses moving over the past two seasons from treating Holt and Isaac Bruce as equals to acknowledging that Holt is now the superior player.

But it's also interesting to look at the game charting for last year. We have 9 drops listed for Holt, and only 2 for Bruce. We also have three incompletes listed as "Miscommunication," with none for Bruce.

The strangest result is in the category of "Overthrown." 26 of the 78 charted incomplete passes to Holt are marked as Overthrown. Only 6 of the charted 44 incomplete passes to Bruce are marked as Overthrown. Only 3 of the combined 22 incomplete passes charted to Shaun McDonald or Kevin Curtis are marked as Overthrown. I have no idea why Holt would be easier to overthrow than the other receivers. Some of these are deep routes, but not all of them.

Anyway, put it all together and I think we get a combination of tighter coverage, a slight slowdown as Holt passes the age of 30, and a somewhat fluky one-year case of the dropsies.

Thanks for the question.

Post by Aaron Schatz 

Here at FOX, he's called the "Tackle Machine." At the four-letter network, they called him a "Standout Linebacker." He's Cato June, the former Colts weakside linebacker who just signed with the Buccaneers. Tackles are his calling card: he registered 142 of them this year, his third straight season with more than one hundred. Surely a player who brings down almost 10 opposing ball carriers per game represents a significant upgrade for the Bucs defense, right?

Well, maybe.

Tackle statistics are among the most misunderstood numbers in football. They aren't even "official" stats, but they are easy enough to find on various websites, so fans and writers freely bandy them about. When we see that Zach Thomas made 165 total tackles (103 solos and 62 assists), we assume that he's doing a heck of a job. And we are usually right: it takes a pretty good defender to top 100 tackles. But there's a big problem: tackle totals are highly distorted, and the distortion favors players on bad defenses. That means that the players on top of the tackle leader boards aren't always the best defenders in the league. Instead, they are often the best players on lousy defenses.

Imagine a defense so good that it always causes opponents to go three-and-out. Such a defense would only record one or two tackles on a typical series: two tackles and an incomplete pass on third down. If that team's offense was competent, then opponents would be throwing the ball to catch up in the second half, creating more incomplete passes and fewer tackles. That's why great defenses often record low tackle totals. The 2006 Ravens recorded just 826 total tackles, the fourth-lowest total in the league. The Bears were also below the league average.

Now flip the scenario and imagine a defense that allows a lot of long drives. Every 80-yard drive represents eight or nine tackles for the defense, even though the unit isn't doing a very good job. The tackle total increases if the run defense is bad, because running plays produce more tackles than passing plays. It goes up again if the team is good at avoiding big pass plays: one 50-yard bomb results in one tackle, but 10 five-yard runs often yield 10 tackles.

A team with a bad run defense that's great at avoiding big pass plays? Wait, I just described the Colts! The Colts defense recorded 1,010 total tackles, the fourth highest total in the league. Here's a list of the teams that recorded over 1,000 tackles last season, along with their DVOA rank in run defense. Notice the trend:

Team     Tackles        Run Defense Rank

Bills         1,076          29th

Titans      1,059         28th

Jets          1,052        32nd

Colts       1,010         31st

Bucs       1,004         9th

It's pretty clear that high tackle totals are partially the result of an inept defense (the Bucs crash the party because their terrible offense kept the defense on the field forever). The Colts registered nine percent more tackles than the league average. For June, nine percent amounts to about 13 tackles.

But that's not the only distortion affecting June's stats. June's 96 solo tackles ranked 10th in the NFL among linebackers, but his 45 assists ranked fifth. Assist totals can be a little funky. Last year, the average team recorded 701 solo tackles with a standard deviation of 42 (I'm rounding to whole numbers because that's what I do). To de-mathify a little, that means that most teams register between 659 and 743 solo tackles, not much of a spread. The mean for assists was 226, but the standard deviation was a whopping 60, which means that "average" assist totals spread all the way from 166 to 286. With 257 assists, the Colts defense was in the high average range.

If you hate math, you can start reading again. The point is that there may be some disparity between what scorers in different cities call an "assist." In St. Louis (just 85 assists), a defender might have to have his arms around the runner's knees while the main tackler wraps his chest. In Buffalo (352 assists), a defender just has to chest-thump the main tackler after the play to earn an assist. We discovered two years ago at Football Outsiders that some scorers are very generous when doling out "passes defensed" to defenders in cities like Philadelphia. We haven't studied this issue in detail, but the phantom assists were a big problem in the days when teams kept their own tackle data, which is why you can't rely on the totals you see in team media guides from before about 1994.

So June's high assist total may be the result of some extra generosity on the part of the local scorers. Meanwhile, he picked up an extra 13 tackles from playing on a bad defense. Total it up, and his 142 tackles may equate to about 120 for an average defense. That's still a lot of tackles, but it isn't an unusual number. Dozens of linebackers finished with over 100 tackles; most of them are good players, but all of the distortions in the data make it impossible to say that the 120-tackle defenders were better than the 100-tackle players. And the sheer number of guys like Morlon Greenwood and Chris Draft who cracked 100 reminds us that 100 tackles isn't much of a milestone; most teams have one or two linebackers and safeties who approach the century mark every year.

Now, I spent weeks breaking down tape of the Colts defense in December and January. I saw the good and the bad, and I saw a lot of June. He's a very good coverage linebacker. He's a below average run defender. I also have a spreadsheet full of Football Outsiders breakdowns: how many tackles he made on passing plays, how many on rushing plays, how many near the line of scrimmage, how many down the field, and so on. The breakdowns have their own distortions, so I won't go through them all here. But they back up my scouting notion that June is at his best in coverage and makes too many of his tackles after significant gains. June's average tackle occurred 5.3 yards downfield, a poor figure for a linebacker, though its true that he made many tackles after long gains because he was cleaning up his teammates mistakes.

The Bucs signed a good linebacker. June fits their system, and he makes their greybeard defense younger. He'll help the pass defense. But let's 86 the "tackle machine" rhetoric. June made a lot of tackles because there were a lot of tackles to make. Ironically, if he really makes the Bucs defense better, then his totals will go down.

post by Mike Tanier