Here's what we wrote about Reggie Williams in Pro Football Prospectus 2005:

So this is what a first round bust looks like. Williams had just 27 catches and one touchdown despite starting 15 games, and only two starting receivers in the league were below him in DVOA. Averaging less than 10 yards a reception is also a special talent. Yes, Williams was drafted in front of Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, and Keary Colbert. Williams would seemingly have to improve this season, if only because he cannot be worse. New coordinator Carl Smith was brought in to help make the passing game vertical, a move specifically designed to benefit Williams because he struggled in the timing-based routes of last year's West Coast scheme. In his second pro season with a more favorable offense, Williams will have no excuses this year.

And here's what we wrote about Reggie Williams in Pro Football Prospectus 2006:

Reggie Williams was drafted in the top 10 and immediately handed a starting job. Unfortunately, he is not nearly good enough to be a starting receiver. An injury against St. Louis opened the door for Ernest Wilford, and Williams slid all the way back to the # 4 receiver role. Finally, Williams found a place where he could be productive, using his physical tools to beat safeties and dime cornerbacks. He is behind two players his age or younger on the depth chart. The upside for Williams appears to be as an adequate third receiver. No shame in that, but given his lofty draft status, he will always be considered a disappointment.

Or will he?

Suddenly in this third year, Reggie Williams seems to "get it." He regained a starting position opposite Matt Jones, and he's played well so far. His cuts are crisper, and unlike the first two years, when Byron Leftwich throws the ball, Williams is in the right place. In fact, despite what we wrote after his rookie year, Williams has become a possession receiver who runs timing-based routes. With Jones as the deep threat, there's a dynamic similar to Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress before Burress left for the Giants, or Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie (now Javon Walker) in Denver, or Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson in Carolina (well, if Smith ever gets back on the field).

Assuming that Williams continues to play well, was there any way to see this coming? I thought I would go back and look at our similarity scores for Williams in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, the FOX blog software doesn't seem to allow for tables, so it's hard to give all the numbers for these guys, but here are the top similar receivers and how each one developed after the first two years:

Jeff Query, 1989-90 Packers: A scrub except for one year as a starter for the 1993 Bengals, he was out of the league by 1995.
Shawn Jefferson, 1991-92 Chargers: It took him until 1994 to really develop, but eventually he had a long career as a second receiver for the Chargers, Patriots and Falcons.
Jabar Gaffney, 2002-03 Texans: Yeah, what's he up to these days?
Drew Bennett, 2001-02 Titans: Barely cracked 500 yards in 2003, but broke out with over 1,200 yards in 2004.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 2001-02 Bengals: Lost 2003 to injury, broke out in 2004.
David Dunn, 1995-96 Bengals: Generally special teams only after 1997.
O.J. McDuffie, 1993-94 Dolphins: 800 or more yards each year from 1995-1998.
Terance Mathis, 1990-91 Jets: Mathis was a real late bloomer, finally breaking out once he left the Jets for the Falcons in his fifth season, but then he put up four 1,000-yard seasons.

It's a mixed bag. Five guys developed, three did not, but if we keep going down the list it takes a while to get to a player as successful as Mathis or Housh. (The next five are Bobby Wade, Robert Ferguson, Cedric Tillman, Kelley Washington, and Cedrick Wilson.) The list of similar players really demonstrates how disappointing Williams has been as a first-round pick. McDuffie was taken at the end of the first round, Gaffney at the start of the second. But Query was a fifth, Jefferson a ninth, Bennett undrafted, Housh a seventh, Dunn a fifth, and Mathis a sixth.

Nonetheless, based on historical similarities, we may have been a bit too quick to write off Reggie Williams. Now let's see if he can keep it up the rest of the year.

Post by Aaron Schatz