Earlier today, I looked at why our DVOA statistics ranked the New England passing game much higher than public perception. As I showed, our numbers agree with the conventional stats -- the public perception is just wrong.

Now let's look at another team where our numbers disagree not only with public perception but with all other numbers. How on earth can the Denver Broncos -- who have allowed only one touchdown all season -- rank first in fewest points allowed and third in fewest yards allowed, but 11th in defensive DVOA?

Just like with the New England offense, we first have to look at the issue of schedule. But Denver's defensive DVOA is actually better than their non-adjusted VOA. They aren't ranked 11th because of an easy schedule.

The main reason why our numbers disagree with Denver's totals is so blatantly obvious that you'll smack yourself for not thinking of it. The Broncos have only played four games. It's easier to allow fewer points and yards when you've played fewer games. This isn't such a big deal with points, as only the Bears have allowed fewer points per game. But while the Broncos are third in total yards allowed, they are 12th in yards allowed per game -- lower than their rank in defensive DVOA.

The next question, I guess, is "why are the Broncos better at preventing points than preventing yards?" The answer is that so far, the Denver defense is absurdly good in the red zone, and it has the best red zone DVOA in the league. The Broncos have allowed just the one touchdown, but they've also allowed just three first downs. Quarterbacks are 5-for-18 with an interception and -- if you count 14 yards Marc Bulger lost due to intentional grounding -- a grand total of 10 passing yards.

The Broncos defense ranked 17th in the red zone last year. They are probably better than that this year, but not this much better. The Denver red zone defense has been artificially boosted by the legendary red zone ineffectiveness of Scott Linehan. Linehan's Vikings teams always suddenly lost the ability to gain yardage in the red zone, his Dolphins team last year was awful in the red zone, and this year's Rams are a festival of field goals. Jeff Wilkins had six of them in that Rams upset in Week 1.

It's also worth noting that, although Denver doesn't have many takeaways this year, those takeaways have generally come at the end of very long drives. Larry Johnson fumbled at the six-yard line after a 60-yard Kansas City drive. Damon Huard had that wacky "pass to himself" fumble after a 37-yard drive. Steve McNair's interceptions last week followed drives of 65, 39, and 21 yards. So except for that last interception, the Broncos were giving up a lot of offense but no points. If the Broncos keep giving up long drives, some of them are going to end up in the end zone instead of with turnovers.

The good news for Broncos fans? Maybe they don't really have the best defense in the league, but there's no way their offense is as bad as it looked early in the season (or as bad as it looked against the excellent Baltimore defense). This team is going to end the season a lot more balanced, but they'll be in the same place they are now: the playoff hunt.

Post by Aaron Schatz