Jason Ford: I'm an avid Browns fan (woe is me) and I've been listening to the critics about Charlie Frye for the better part of the season. In Ned Macey's Every Given Sunday article this week, he bashes Frye and says the Browns should look into a trade for someone like Leftwich next season. The guy has less than a full season worth of starts... Can you run some similarity scores for Frye?

Aaron Schatz: This is a bit of a follow-up to Ned Macey's post last week about Frye and the history of quarterbacks who played below replacement level in their first two seasons. I took Frye's numbers through 10 games, pro-rated them for a whole season, and then compared his first two years to those of other quarterbacks since 1978.

First, here are the top ten similar seasons considering 2006 only:

1. Quincy Carter, 2003 Cowboys
2. Brett Favre, 1993 Packers
3. Drew Brees, 2002 Chargers
4. Tim Couch, 2001 Browns
5. Jim Zorn, 1978 Seahawks
6. Jake Plummer, 1998 Cardinals
7. Brett Favre, 1992 Packers
8. Rick Mirer, 1993 Seahawks
9. David Carr, 2004 Texans
10. Joey Harrington, 2004 Lions

Yes, Brett Favre appears twice on this list, but as you'll see in a second, he's not really that comparable to Frye. Frye is having a weird season, with a good completion percentage (62.5%) but lousy average yards per attempt (6.2). The Browns are throwing a ton of short passes. Out of these 10 quarterbacks, the only one with a higher completion percentage is Favre (1992), and the only one with fewer yards per attempt is Mirer. I also don't know if people realize how much Frye runs. He's on pace for 275 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Here's the top ten after we consider two seasons:

1. Quincy Carter, 2002-3 Cowboys
2. Tim Couch, 2000-1 Browns
3. Shaun King, 1999-2000 Bucs
4. Drew Brees, 2001-2 Chargers
5. Jim Everett, 1986-7 Rams
6. Jon Kitna, 1998-9 Seahawks
7. Randy Wright, 1985-6 Packers
8. Josh McCown, 2003-4 Cardinals
9. Aaron Brooks, 2000-1 Saints
10. David Carr, 2003-4 Texans

That list isn't quite so good, although Everett had a useful career and of course Drew Brees is still Drew Brees. Why isn't Frye comparable to Favre anymore? Because Favre's 1992 was nothing like Frye's 2005 -- actually, even though it shows up as similar to Frye's current season, Favre was much, much better in 1992:

• Favre 1992: 64.1 Comp. Pct., 6.9 ypa, 18 TD, 13 INT
• Favre 1993: 60.9 Comp. Pct., 6.3 ypa, 19 TD, 24 INT
• Frye 2006: 62.5 Comp. Pct., 6.2 ypa, 14 TD, 19 INT (pro-rated)

Frye is a quarterback who was below average in his first two seasons as a starter. Favre is a quarterback who was good in his first season as a starter, despite throwing a lot of shorter passes, and then slumped a bit in his second season.

I think the similarity scores say the same thing as Ned's analysis from last week -- Frye isn't hopeless, but he certainly doesn't look as promising as he did three months ago.

Post by Aaron Schatz