Jamie Hammond: As a NE fan, I'm fascinated by the fact that the team efficiency ratings seem to entirely belie the conventional wisdom about what is and isn't working for the Pats. All you hear about the Pats is how Tom Brady and the receivers are struggling, and yet the Pats are #4 in Pass DVOA? Our supposedly might running game is only #13? Our defense, which is supposedly our stronger side of the ball, is 21st? Can you explain how these counterintuitive results occur?

The Patriots are one of two teams where this week's ratings look strange. The other is Denver, which ranks just 11th in defensive DVOA despite allowing just 34 points, the fewest in the NFL. I thought I would take a closer look, to see what DVOA is telling us about these teams that conventional stats are not. The Patriots now, the Broncos later today. (Now posted here.)

The first question to ask when DVOA disagrees with normal stats is "what about schedule?" Well, schedule is part of the issue. The Patriots rank 4th in passing DVOA and 13th in rushing DVOA. In the non-adjusted numbers, the Patriots rank 7th in passing and 9th in rushing. That's a little more of what we expect, although passing still seems too high. Rushing doesn't seem too low when you consider that the great game against Cincinnati is balanced by two games where the Patriots averaged less than three yards per carry (vs. Denver and Miami).

The rest of the disconnect between DVOA and perception is that perception is simply wrong. The Patriots passing game has not been struggling if you look at all five games together, and every single play of those games. The Patriots rank 12th in a more conventional statistic, net yards per pass. They averaged more than seven net yards per pass against both the Jets and Bengals. They averaged just 5.8 net yards per pass against Denver, and 5.0 against Miami, but Brady didn't throw an interception in either game. All those yards on two long fourth-quarter drives against Denver do count. The first one came down 17-0, but that's not garbage time -- the touchdown on that drive kept the game competitive. Two drives later, the Pats stalled on fourth down at the Denver 20-yard line, but stalling out doesn't make the 60 yards gained on that drive go away.

The only game where the Pats have a negative passing DVOA is Week 1 against Buffalo. That game set up the idea that the Patriots were having trouble passing, and the whole "body language" controversy from the Denver game fueled the fire, but the Patriots passing game is fine. Not as good as last year, but fine.

How about the Patriots defense? Again, there's a disconnect between perception and reality. The Pats have allowed 5.4 net yards per play on defense -- 21st in the league, the same ranking as defensive DVOA. They have just three interceptions, and one of those is coded "Hail Mary" in our numbers and counts as just a normal incomplete (Week 2, the deep Pennington-to-McCareins pass with 15 seconds left).

One reason why we think of New England as a good defense is that they've been very good when it matters most. That 21st-ranked defense becomes a top 10 defense in the second half of close games (i.e. within 8 points) and a top 5 defense if you consider only fourth-quarter plays, no matter the score.

Post by Aaron Schatz