Each week I'll give my opinions on the games with a few best bets. All lines listed are courtesy of The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook updated from 12:30 pm Saturday.
Week 1, Sunday, September 13, 2009
Dolphins +4 @ Falcons (O/U 43.5): Atlanta will have a tough time duplicating last season's fantastic season, but so will Miami who is in the same boat. Like Michael Turner too much at home to go against. Pick: Falcons 27-20
Chiefs +13 @ Ravens (36): Looks like a complete mismatch. Chiefs lost all pre-season games and don't have a solid game plan in place for 2009 despite a new Head Coach in Todd Haley. I have question marks about the Ravens change in defensive scheme this year, but they still have the players. Pick: Ravens 28-6
Eagles -2.5 @ Panthers (43.5): Carolina was the favorite in this game a few months ago, and moved from Philly being favored Monday by -1 to -2.5 on Saturday. Likely not to reach 3, but Panthers should be able to get the home field win led by their running attack. Still questions about Westbrook's ability to contribute for Philly. Pick: Panthers 28-21
Broncos +4.5 @ Bengals (43): The sharps and the public have bet this game from Denver a small favorite a few months ago to Cincy where it's at now. No movement on the line this week, and it may be over-inflated. Denver has been through a lot, but still have one of the best offensive lines in football. Look for the Bronco running game to be too much to handle for a suspect Bengals defensive unit: Pick: Broncos 20-16
Vikings -3.5 @ Browns (40): This game will be closer than most think. The Browns will play an inspired game and key on stopping the run, harder said than done, but should they have success early and move the ball just a little, it'll come down to a field goal. Pick: Vikings 23-20
Jets +4.5 @ Texans (44): The Houston defense should be much better than it has shown the last two seasons, and because they're not, this might be the best game of the day if you like offense. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez would have liked to start his career at home, but playing a bad defense in front of a semi-rabid crowd is the next best thing. Pick: Jets 37-33
Jaguars +7 @ Colts (44): The big question with the Jags is how well Maurice Jones-Drew responds to getting all the carries with Fred Taylor gone. Will he be too tired to be the bolt of energy that got the Jags rolling in key moments? The answer is No! he'll be just fine, especially this week without Bob Sanders patrolling the field. Pick: Jaguars 30-23
Lions +13.5 @ Saints (49): Lions were 7-1 vs. the spread last season on the road. No one better to cash with than Detroit. This line has moved up a half on the side and total from Monday. Look for the Saints to get theirs, but for Lions to be in striking distance to get the last cover which the Saints could care less about. Pick: Saints 34-24
Cowboys -5.5 @ Buccaneers (39): So many reasons to love the Cowboys and hate the Bucs this week, but it can't be that easy can it? The Cowboys got a happy Tony Romo and all those backs and Bucs have 3 mediocre backs, and washed up QB, and a new Head Coach. The Bucs also have a proud talented defense who the home crowd will inspire to keep the game close. Maybe a good money line play. Pick: Cowboys 16-13
49ers +6 @ Cardinals (46.5): This game just keeps repeating year after year on opening day, but this will be the first opener with Samurai Mike at the helm. The 49ers have a young disciplined defense and a confident offense to be able to take it at the defending NFC Champs. The Cardinals awful pre-season will linger into week 1. Pick: 49ers 34-26
Redskins +6.5 @ Giants (37.5): This game will likely end up like last years battles with a bruising style that nets the Redskins very little points. Giants have the best defense in football and the Skins have no answer to negate that edge. Pick: Giants 23-6
Rams +7.5 @ Seahawks (41): This line has come down from Monday a whole point meaning some sharps have come in on the Rams. Seattle's offense looked the most crisp of any in pre-season led by a healthy Matt Hasselbeck. Hawk-n-Roll! Pick: Seahawks 28-17
Bears +4 @ Packers (46.5): This game has a moved a half since Monday, and because it's a Sunday Night game, you'll likely see the favorite go to 5.5. Both should be able to score, but Chicago will get their first taste of ill-advised throws by Jay Cutler leading to losing games. Aaron Rodgers is ready to become a star. Pick: Packers 31-19
Monday Night Football
Bills +11 @ Patriots (47.5): The Bills have made some additions but their biggest weapon, Marshawn Lynch, is suspended for three games. The Patriots will look to flex their rehabilitated offensive weapons early and often. Once the air is out the bag and the Bills have accepted defeat, it'll be a very boring second half. Pick: Patriots 35-7
Chargers -9.5 @ Raiders (43): Not many teams looked worse than Oakland in pre-season in all facets. The only thing talented as a group there is the fans, which may help a little, but see Denver's waxing of them in the same opener last year on Monday Night for how effective the crowd was. Chargers should do as they want. Pick: Chargers 38-17
After Saturday's final practice sessions for Sunday's NASCAR Sprint Cup series race at the road course of Watkins Glen, a few drivers have stood out over the rest with consistent spectacular times during both sessions.
The top road course practice times don't necessarily produce the winner two times a year, but they do give a great indication of who should be running in the top-10 and at least compete for the win.
The star of the day was Australian Marcos Ambrose who was fastest in both of Saturday's practices. After running 12 laps with the third best average speed in the first session, Ambrose came out in Happy Hour, ran the fastest laps, and then parked his car after only eight laps signaling that they were good to go for Sunday's race.
Ambrose has run close to the same practice times In his last two Cup road course races, including this seasons Sonoma race, but this race will be the first time that he won't have to start from the rear. Because of a great qualifying session, Ambrose will start fourth which surely help his cause to gaining his first career Cup win.
Despite his poor start position in the last two road races, Ambrose still managed to finish third in both. Considering that 16 of the 26 Watkins Glen winners have started within the top four, Ambrose practice times look all the more attractive in making him a top candidate to win this week.
Sunday's pole sitter, Jimmie Johnson, was third fastest in the early session and second during happy hour. Johnson has never won a road course event among his 43 career victories, but looks to have his best opportunity ever. In all 15 of Johnson's career road starts, he has never been so crisp and clean, while being so fast, during practice while maneuvering both right and left turns.
Kurt Busch impressed a lot of the teams in the garage with his practices on Friday and Saturday. Busch was fastest in the first session Friday and sixth in Saturday's happy hour. In the first session Saturday,
Busch had the 12th fastest lap but ran the most laps with the second fastest average times. Between both sessions, no one ran more laps than Busch for the day which means the team should be dialed in for long runs, something road courses present more than most.
Busch has never won a road course race, but his start position at second coupled with his great two days of practice, and stellar long run times make him a great candidate to get that first road win.
Juan Pablo Montoya had a great day of practices coming in fourth quickest early and tenth during happy hour running 19 laps. His one and only career Cup win came on the road course of Sonoma, not to mention he is one of the hottest drivers on the tour.
The guy won Monte Carlo, come on, who can say that?
That accomplishment alone should separate status levels altogether. However, Montoya is playing the NASCAR points race at the moment and is very focused on the making the chase with only five races remaining. If it came push to shove late in the race, it's likely Montoya makes that move to get the win, but the way the team has been talking, they just want a top five and the points that come with it.
Tony Stewart has the best seven year resume at Watkins Glen of anyone in track history. He had sluggish times on Friday, but came out solid with a 14th best early and then seventh fastest in happy hour. His four wins and two second-place finishes over that seven year span give him more clout for this race as a candidate to win than any of the top drivers in practice.
The key to race is likely to be who becomes the luckiest during their green flag pit stops. There should only be two stops required which means that someone who comes in early just before an ill-timed caution, which always seems to happen, will have position over those who haven't pitted.
It's such a long haul around the track that no one up front wants to be that guy stuck out late. Look for early pit stops before their 30 to 35 lap possibility, and then trying to stretch out that final fuel stop to the maximum possibility to avoid being caught in a pickle. Easier said than done, but that looks to be the common strategy.
Based on the practices with the amount of laps run, drivers like Johnson and Busch stand out as ones who will be really good on that final stretch if in position.
Watkins Glen Top Happy Hour Speeds: 1) Marcos Ambrose 123.021 mph - AVG: 8 laps @ 122.556 2) Jimmie Johnson 122.483 mph - AVG 23 laps @ 121.614 3) Denny Hamlin 122.189 mph - AVG 20 laps @ 121.346 4) Carl Edwards 122.149 mph - AVG 19 laps @ 121.221 5) Boris Said 122.096 mph - AVG 26 laps @ 120.849 6) Kurt Busch 121.963 mph - AVG 26 laps @ 121.370 7) Tony Stewart 121.961 mph - AVG 22 laps @ 121.273
Saturday's First Practice Speeds: 1) Marcos Ambrose 122.643 mph - AVG 12 laps @ 121.213 2) Sam Hornish Jr 122.379 mph - AVG 15 laps @ 120.890 3) Jimmie Johnson 122.335 mph - AVG 16 laps @ 121.614 4) Juan Pablo Montoya 122.317 mph - AVG 17 laps @ 121.169 5) Max Papis 122.267 mph - AVG 11 laps @ 121.130
Top Rated drivers far as candidates to win Sunday's Watkins Glen race based on this weekend's practice, past performances at the Glen, a mix of Sonoma, and current state of their team. 1) Kurt Busch 2) Tony Stewart 3) Jimmie Johnson 4) Marcos Ambrose 5) Juan Pablo Montoya 6) Kyle Busch 7) Jeff Gordon 8) Denny Hamlin 9) Kevin Harvick 10) Carl Edwards
The boys of NASCAR are out ripping again after a week off, and thank goodness. What a terrible week it was last week without the elite stock car drivers in the world going at. This week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway gives fans everywhere an extra bump in adrenaline for the week off because they have four practice sessions along with an early morning qualifying session on Saturday.
On Friday, the Cup series ran two of their practice sessions at Motor Sports' ultimate racing facility which has been in existence since 1909. In the first practice round many of the drivers came out with their race trim on, which could be helpful in determining who will run well in Sunday's Brickyard 400.
Because they still had an extra session on Friday before Saturday's qualifying, most teams went all out with an early game plan of accumulating as much information as possible prior to Friday's final session, which most reserved for Qualifying trim set-up.
In the first session, the most impressive of all the drivers was Juan Pablo Montoya who was sporting a retro paint scheme reminiscent of his 2000 Indy 500 win with Target on the side of his car splashed with a yellow swoop on the side.
Montoya ran the second fastest lap overall in the session while running eighteen laps. Montoya stands out early because he was fast throughout, and then just as good in the charts following the second run while in qualifying trim.
Greg Biffle was the first sessions leader in time, but did it with qualifying trim on the last of his seven laps run. In the second practice session, Biffle was 23rd quickest when most of the drivers were in qualifying trim.
Mark Martin was fastest in the second practice session which should make him a top candidate to win the pole position on Saturday. Martin ran only five laps in the final session, got the best time on lap five, and took the car to the garage to rest for Saturday.
Ryan Newman was very impressive during the first run as he settled in with the fifth fastest run while taking in 23 laps. The combination of quality a Pocono run last month which is a similar set-up, and Newman being from Indiana make him a nice choice early on to contend for Sunday's checkers.
Friday's session were more a practice for qualifying than anything, but there was a lot of things that came out of both sessions that could be telling for the race on Sunday. Montoya stands out above all drivers as one who is doing better in times during race trim than what was expected.
The top drivers expected to do well coming into this weekend were Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman. Saturday's two sessions will further divulge who will be good on Sunday. See you then!
Friday's 1st practice Speeds
#16-Biffle 177.075 #42-Montoya 176.630 #21-Elliott 176.547 #83-Vickers 176.481 #39-Newman 176.187 slowest: #75-Cope 167.202 and #34-Andretti 169.584 no speed listed: #08-Labonte incident: #48-Johnson scraped the wall and did very minor damage to the #48.
From the end of the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup season to the time leading up to this weeks Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Carl Edwards has gone through a wild ride for the last eight months.
Between getting lost in the New York subway system during NASCAR's season ending award ceremonies, planning a wedding, actually going through with the wedding, honeymooning in Thailand, or cycling through the thousands of Thai commuters on bikes, it's been wild year. And the season hasn't even started yet.
But why not take things up a notch? Edwards just came off a remarkable season and there was no reason to think that 2009 would be any different. He had the most dominant car for the entire season capturing mores wins, top-5's, and top-10's than anyone else. He started the 2008 chase first in points and maintained it through the first two races. He even had more top-5 finishes in the chase than anyone with eight.
His only slip in the chase happened in back to back races at Talladega and Charlotte with an average finish of thirty-first in both which were his only non top-5's in the chase. Eventual Chase winner Jimmie Johnson only had six top-5's, but won because his worst finish was fifteenth.
Prior to the 2009 season the entire pool of National NASCAR writers voted by a two to one margin that Edwards would capture the 2009 Championship. That is a lot pressure to put on his shoulders, but he did it to himself. He raised the bar so high and performed at such a high level of excellence in the series that going up is the natural progression. Maybe not in wins because nine is such a high number, but definitely a driver that look like a Cup Champion.
Fast forward to this week leading into the Brickyard 400 and reality has surpassed the expectations with nineteen races run in the thirty-six race season. Edwards currently sits a respectable sixth in points, but the most shocking surprise of the season is that he doesn't have any wins.
At no time in NASCAR history has any driver had as many as nine wins in a season and not win in their next season while running every race. Not the type of dubious honor Edwards wants, but the physically fit, self motivated Edwards knows his time will come.
"I feel like we could've won, maybe should've won at Texas, and we had a little trouble at Talledega, we were a couple of hundred yards from winning, Edwards said. Martinsville, had an extremely fast car. So, I'm not too worried about that fact that we haven't won, because I feel like we've performed well enough to have won two or three different races."
A little trouble at Talladega? That's putting it mildly, however spectacular the wreck was down the stretch, Edwards was just being Edwards in one of the classic NASCAR moments when jumped out of his mangled car and jogged to the finish line in an impromptu re-make of the Talladega Nights movie. He's always thinking about fitness even in the most dire moments.
His 2009 campaign is very similar to his 2006 season in regards to expectations. Following his first full season of 2005 when he captured fans everywhere doing his trademarked flips following a win three times ultimately finishing third in points, 2006 was supposed to be his year. Instead, he went winless the entire season finishing twelfth in points.
"What happened in '06, with huge expectations after '05, and we just didn't have a stellar year at all in '06, and I learned right there that hey, this is a tough sport, Edwards said. You can't rest on anything you've done. You have to keep going and working. Last year, at the beginning of the year, we set out to win 10 races and the championship. That was our goal amongst myself and my crew chief. We won nine and finished second, so we were close. This year, the goal is simply to win the championship. So, whatever happens, happens. I guess expectation is what it is. Nobody has higher expectations than I do, on myself. That's how it's always been."
So when will Edwards get that first elusive win of 2009? If all things were equal from last year, it would be easy to suggest one of the high banked 1.5-mile tracks of Atlanta, Charlotte, or Texas. But things aren't equal by any means, and that goes for the entire Fenway-Roush organization who thrived on those type of tracks. Following back to back season opening wins by Matt Kenseth, the entire organization has gone winless.
The one bright spot on Edwards season was his best finish of the year at Pocono where he was second. Of all the races run this year, Pocono's finish was the only one of 2009 that was equal, or on par with 2008 on similar tracks. He led the most laps in that race last month and almost got fuel mileage win ahead of Tony Stewart who crossed on fumes.
Last season, Edwards finished ninth and first in the two Pocono races, sandwiched in between a second place finish at the Brickyard. Because of the long straightaways and tight, flat turns, Indy and Pocono are very similar in regards to set-up. Throughout the history of Brickyard races, drivers who do well on one always do well on the other.
From 2008 through 2009 when combining all Pocono and Indy finishes, only two drivers have finished in the top-10 in all four races. It's little surprise that the two are Edwards and Johnson.
Last season, Kasey Kahne finished in the top-10 of all three of those races run. Edwards, Johnson, and Kahne each got a win in one of those races.
If there is any week that points to Edwards getting his first win based on what he's done this season as a link to 2008, it's this weeks race at the storied grounds of the Brickyard.
"I can't wait,'' he said. "It's going to feel good when we get a win.''
After he gets past any of the possible anxieties that go along with not meeting expectations by finally getting that win, he can attempt to get fully geared and focused for the Chase to the Championship. In an entire seasons span he could go from being the overwhelming favorite to win it all, to not meeting expectations, and then finally being called the improbable winner.
Many Crew Chiefs who had success at Michigan brought the same Chassis for this Saturday Night's Lifelock.com 400 at Chicago Speedway. Friday's two practice sessions were the final tune-up prior to Saturday night's race and if the times are any indication at all, Michigan's top performers from last months race are all equally as good as they were then.
The pole sitter for Michigan is again atop the qualifying charts for Chicago. While in race trim, Vickers is just as fast managing a ninth fastest lap in the first session averaging the second fastest lap times among all drivers who ran at least twenty laps.
During happy hour, Vickers came out with the third fastest lap on the first of thirty-eight laps run. Vickers was very good at Michigan as well before the race, but settled for a ninth place finish which had to be somewhat disappointing considering how good they were in practice there.
The top three cars from Michigan combining practice and actual race performance were Jimmie Johnson, Greg Biffle, and Mark Martin. Johnson led the most laps while his Hendrick teammate had the best practice sessions. Greg Biffle had a great practice and race as well.
Johnson was dominant in leading the race but ran out of fuel just prior to getting the white flag. Greg Biffle was in second and had a bout two seconds of excitement as being the leader because he then ran out of fuel on the last lap enabling Martin to get the win.
If we look at the practice times from Friday, sitting at the top of each session are the Hendrick teammates again. Johnson led the first of the day and had the fastest average times among all those that ran at least 20 laps. Martin was fastest in happy hour, the final session, just like he was in Michigan.
Biffle, who had been fourth fastest in Michigan happy hour, turned out to be fifth quickest in Friday's first session making the entire Chicago race look like a serious case of Deja-vu.
Clint Bowyer had a very good couple of sessions Friday, just as he had at Michigan. More encouraging for the struggling Childress group, beyond Bowyer's second fastest lap in happy hour, was seeing Jeff Burton run the fifth quickest lap in the final. Disappointing however, were the lap times of two-time Chicago winner Kevin Harvick who was twenty-sixth and twenty-fifth fastest.
Two very good runs, that came somewhat as a surprise, come from the Toyota's driven by David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose. Reutimann was solid in all his average lap times and was fourth fastest in the first practice. Ambrose was consistently good in all sessions, running smart fast laps, even on older tires.
Last Years Chicago winner, Kyle Busch, came out possessed in both Friday practices and ran the most combined laps of all the teams. Busch finished with the seventh fastest lap in each of the sessions. It is a normal occasion for Busch to run several laps more than others, but the pressure is building for the No. 18 team and it is likely there is a sense of urgency to at least get a top-5 finish, let alone a win. Busch has gone eight consecutive races without a top-5 finish. His last one was a win at Richmond.
The two drivers who showed up strong that could really mess up this week's Deja-Vu party is Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne who led happy hour with the fastest average times. Gordon is a past Chicago winner who really needs to get that next win and carry momentum into the Chase.
Kasey Kahne has a new engine, a win under his belt, feels good, is fast on long runs, and is currently in the Chase after it looking impossible several weeks ago. Things are definitely looking good for Kahne this week.
Biffle and Carl Edwards were the top performing Ford's who are looking to get manufacturer it's first Chicago Cup win ever. As good as Roush-Fenway has been on all the 1.5 mile tracks along with Michigan and California, it is very strange to have not seen a Ford in the winners circle in a period in which Roush had dominated.
Happy Hour practice - Practice #3 - Fastest Times:
Best "Average Speeds" among those running at least 30 laps: 1) #24 Gordon 171.161 (55 laps)
2) #9 Kahne 170.607 (53 laps)
3) #48 Johnson 170.572 (35 laps)
4) #18 Ky. Busch 170.471 (65 laps)
First Friday Practice - Practice #2 overall - Fastest Times: 1) #48-Johnson 177.200 2) #99-Edwards 176.881 3) #11-Hamlin 176.725 4) #00-Reutimann 176.091 5) #16-Biffle 176.039 slowest: #71-Gilliland 170.138 & #96-Labonte 169.534 notes: The session was cut down from 45 to 35 minutes so NASCAR could get 2 practices in before the Nationwide race.
Best "Average Speeds" among those running at least 20 laps: 1) #48 Johnson 171.220
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