With 29 teams failing to win a championship every year, it's a sure bet some fraction of them will decide the team needs to go a different direction.

Coaches are easier to change than players. It's like changing oil as opposed to changing your engine in a vehicle. The price difference is almost the same, too.

Already several teams have revamped their coaching staffs in hopes of getting different results out of the same players. In other cases, the arrival of the new coach might mean the departure of players who don't fit the incoming philosophy.

Which ones will succeed and which ones will flop? Here's a not-so-educated guess:

Mike D'Antoni - New York Knicks: DEPENDS. Why? Look at the roster. It's like those Honda Ridgeline commericials that pair total opposites: fancy restaurants and Chuck Norris, lumberjacks and outer space; you get the idea.

If Donnie Walsh is willing to spend $6 million a year on this coach after eating Isaiah Thomas' contract, you can bet your knickerbockers he's not afraid to blow up this roster...no matter the cost.

Walsh has shown he's intent on making his own mark in his new position with the Knicks. He'll waste no time trying to revamp a roster that suits D'Antoni. The key word there is try. Who will be willing to eat super-sized contracts with the names Marbury, Randolph, or Curry attached to them?

If Walsh can put together a group of players that compliment D'Antoni's game plan, then it's a success. If not, it'll be the kind of flop that suits New Yorkers - big and loud.

Rick Carlisle - Dallas Mavericks: SUCCESS. A lot of people forget that this guy took the Pistons to the Eastern Finals the year before they took it all. Detroit let him go in favor of Larry Brown the summer before their improbable championship year.

The thing to remember is that a newly aquired and motivated Rasheed Wallace was the biggest reason Detroit hoisted a banner that year. We'll never know that Carlisle couldn't have taken the Pistons to the top.

Carlisle went on to coach a Pacers team that went 61-21 in the regular season, only to lose to his previous employer, Detroit, who went on to win the title.

After that, any lack of success is tainted by years of PPP's (Pacer player problems). The 2004 brawl in Detroit, the numerous gun and drinking incidents, Ron Artest...the poor guy never had a break.

Mark Cuban realized that when Carlisle has a fairly good team under him, the guy wins. Dallas is (or at least, can be) a really good team. The Mavs needed the right kind of motivation, not the in-your-face decibel-shattering motivation that former coach Avery Johnson wore out. Carlisle has a lot to work with, and should be able to make it work.

Erik Spoelstra - Miami Heat: SUCCESS. Spoelstra has the most envious position of any new head coach. Miami is coming off a horrible year, so expectations are at an all-time low. He's got a 25% chance at the number one draft pick in June, and he's already got Dwayne Wade and Shawn Marion in tow.

That's great, except what makes anyone think the Heat will do better with a 37-year-old newbie than with Hall-of-Famer Pat Riley? I'm not sure, except that Riley and owner Micky Arison think the world of the guy. The last time they were this pumped about a new head coach was when Stan Van Gundy took the helm, and he only took the Heat to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

In one way or another, Spoelstra's been involved with basketball his whole life. That unprofessional, but insightful approach should be appealing to his players. All the benefits of the job I mentioned in the beginning, will only speed the transition along, and in the right direction.

Scott Skiles - Milwaukee Bucks: FLOP. Skiles is developing a habit of taking over less-than-mediocre teams, and making them a little bit better than mediocre. What will make this coaching stop worse than his Phoenix and Chicago tenures is that this team has no talent (or interest)whatsoever in doing what Skiles will demand: play defense.

Steals, blocks, and rebounding are all considered defensive statistics. The team leaders in those categories (Mo Williams, 1.18spg; Andrew Bogut, 1.73bpg; Bogut, 9.8rpg) all failed to place among the league leaders in those defensive statistics.

When Skiles orders his team of shooters (Michael Redd, Charlie Villanueva)and foreigners (Andrew Bogut, Yi Jianlian) to guard the basket, it'll be like asking a chihuahua to guard your house. It'll scamper around a lot, make a lot of noise, and look funny, but willl ultimately get pounded into submission.

Larry Brown - Charlotte Bobcats: SUCCESS*. The asterik is for length of time, which we all know is only a matter of time for Coach Brown.

Brown excels at getting previously-ungiven effort out of players (assuming they're not playing for the Knicks...hopefully former Knicks Othella Harrington and Nazr Mohammed aren't in danger of losing their jobs). Young studs Raymond Felton and Omeka Okafor have done enough to pass as good in their careers thus far. Brown will make them do more.

He might even be able to resurrect Adam Morrison (what is it about great white college players who never make it big in the NBA? See: Laettner, Christian; Gugliotta, Tom; Redick, JJ).

Like Spoelstra, Brown is taking over a team that has good pieces and low expectations. In the Eastern Conference, Brown should be able to guide the Bobcats to the playoffs.

This just came to my mind, and I had to include it, because I absolutely 100% know it will happen. A conversation between Charlotte citizens next season will go something like this:

Citizen #1: Hey, how about them Bobcats, huh?

Citizen #2: Oh, are they a new hockey team or something?

Citizen #1: No, man! NBA team!

Citizen #2: Dude, the Hornets have been in New Orleans for years now. Where have you been?

Citizen #1: No, we got another team since then! The Bobcats! And this year they're really good!

Citizen #2: Get outta here, man. Are you serious? How come I never heard of them?

Citizen #1: They weren't real good, before, man. We might actually make the playoffs this year! Ray Felton, Sean May, Okafor and Wallace are tearing it up man!

Citizen #2: Dude, you're stuck in 2005, man! Felton and May played for the Tar Heels back then! What the heck is an Okafor? And 'Sheed plays for the Pistons! You're crazy, man. Unless...you're not trying to get me all worked up over one of those NBDL teams, are you?

Fans from the Valley of the Sun thought it couldn't get any worse after yet another playoff exit courtesy of the San Antonio Spurs.

Think again.

Offensive revolutionist Mike D'Antoni is officially on the coaching carosel, and the future of a franchise that's been "on the cusp" is in serious doubt at this point.

To add insult to injury, other teams either are or will soon be making Phoenix appear foolish for their ineptitude at fulfilling their once vast potential.

Hornets have no trouble where Suns had no answers

In a highlight from the Hornets Game 2 victory over San Antonio, Tony Parker attempts to knife his way into the paint, something he did with pathetic ease and consistency against the Suns in round one.

The only difference is that instead of a Suns defender (if you could call him that) letting Parker race by and then half-trying to block the layup from behind, Tyson Chandler actually (no joke) stays in front of Parker, and then blocks the shot. This isn't revelatory, considering that the idea of defense is to stay between the man and the basket (not to mention the fact Chandler has a foot's worth of altitude on the Frenchman).

Considering the basic principles of defense involved, it's even more mind-boggling as to why Phoenix was simply unable to stop Parker from dissecting them for over 29 ppg in round one.

* On a positive spin, the Suns did figure out that allowing Manu Ginobili to drive left is a bad thing. Miraculously, when the Suns forced him to go right, Ginobili couldn't do a thing. It was like they heard all the Phoenicians screaming at the TV, "Don't let him go left!!!" That right there was the Suns biggest defensive improvement. It's just a shame it took them two-and-a-half series' to figure it out.

Offensively, the Hornets are beating the Spurs using a formula the Suns should be better at: using their All-Star point guard to penetrate and finding shooters. Either that, or they created for their versatile power forward, David West.

You ask anyone, anyone who keeps up with basketball, and they'll say Amare Stoudemire should be able to tear the Spurs apart twice as bad as David West. But it's the Hornets who have the Spurs figured out, while the Suns are still trying to.

The worst part of this is the fact that New Orleans is doing this against the Spurs on their first try. For all the blathering about playoff experience, the Hornets are showing more poise and making the Suns look like they were the playoff novices.

D'Antoni to Bulls would be ironic

There once was a team that was playoff regular for a few years before hitting one bad year. One. Lots of good pieces that simply underachieved. A few roster tweaks, enter Mike D'Antoni as the new head coach and BAM! Hello, contender status.

That was the Suns in 2004-05. In 2008-09, it could very well be the Bulls.

If anyone can get Kirk Hinrich out of his below-potential funk, it's D'Antoni. Hinrich is probably one of the few point guards who could do a fair Nash imitation in D'Antoni's system. Remember, the guy played for Team USA, and not because he was the token white guy on the roster (that role belonged to Brad Miller).

With Hinrich running D'Antoni's show, suddenly Ben Gordon becomes the most dangerous streak shooter in the league. Green light-BANG! Luol Deng will be the new Shawn Marion, the 6'7" does-everything-guy who is always labeled underrated. Tyrus Thomas will suddenly tap into his monstrous potential.

The worst part for Suns fans? D'Antoni's sixth man goes from being the psychologically-soft Brazilian Leandro Barbosa to the hard-nosed Argentinean Andres Nocioni. Yeah, the league needed another guy from Argentina to be a thorn in other teams' sides.

The Raptors? Please. Suns East will be in the Windy City.

*Actually, that wouldn't be the worst. What if Chicago gets lucky in the lottery, drafts Michael Beasley and wins a championship in the next three years with D'Antoni as coach. John Paxson sits in his office reminiscing about his '93 three-pointer that eliminated the Suns in Game 6 of the Finals. He'd smile and say, "Got 'em again."

Who coaches the old men?

The Suns are at a crucial juncture. Four fifths of their starting lineup are over 30 (Three fifths over 33). D'Antoni is leaving because of philosophical differences between him and management.

What coach wants to try to change the philosophy of 30-something-year-old players? Especially when two of them are former MVP's?

"Look, Steve, I don't care how many behind-the-back passes you make to Stoudemire on the pick-and-roll, play some [expletive] defense!" Yeah, that'll go over real well.

And Nash is the nice guy. Shaquille O'Neal openly supported D'Antoni. How will he react to a new coach hoping to instill discipline into the Big Ego?

There are so many things that could've kept a premature ending to the Suns Era from happening. Being in the East, playing anyone but the Spurs, not having a key injury in the playoffs every year since Nash arrived.

The harsh truth is that those are all excuses. True champions win. Wannabes go home, and either get farther next year or disband. It looks like the latter for the Suns. Unfortunately for them, the rest of the league is and will be reaping the benefits.

Out of all the All-Star snubs that commissioner David Stern could choose from to replace the injured Kevin Garnett for next week's All-Star weekend, the best he could do was Rasheed Wallace? Forgive the juvenile protest, but puh-leeze.

There are two reasons why this makes absolutely no sense. One comes from the "teams should get awarded for success" theory, and the other is "the better player should be an All-Star" preference. In both cases, Wallace should not have been selected as a replacement.

First, the team perspective. Boston currently holds the best record in the NBA. Not just the Leastern, ahem, eastern conference, mind you. The entire league. Yet now they will have a grand total of one representative at the All-Star game. When was the last time that happened?

(I'd like to know what search tools those professional writers use to look up random trivia like that. Then I'd sound really smart by answering my own questions.)

Even without Garnett, Boston was able to pull off a big win at home against the Spurs. That makes Boston an impressive 16-0 against western conference foes, despite all the critics and pundits prematurely crowning whoever comes out of the dogfight for the western conference championship.

In case you haven't gotten the hint yet, Ray Allen is starting to sound like a fairly reasonable candidate (if not shoe-in) to replace his injured teammate. So far, that's only on the basis of team merit.

Individually, (again, a question that more professional writers with professional resources could answer), when was the last time someone played in the All-Star game averaging a paltry 12.9ppg and 7.3rpg? Sure, Ben Wallace has made the All-Star team averaging less points, but his rebounding numbers were in double figures. The AP release mentions in passing that Wallace leads his team in steals (1.36spg) and blocks (1.6bpg). The cynic within says, "Whoopdee-freakin'-doo."

Ray Allen on the other hand? A cool 18.3ppg. Not unreasonable for an All-Star, especially on such a loaded squad. And while some may have missed this transpiring, Allen has actually become the "go-to guy" in the clutch, winning a handful of games with his silky-smooth jumper to close it out. Doesn't it say something on his behalf that Allen is chosen over All-Star teammates Garnett and Paul Pierce that he gets the nod in clutch time?

Had Stern still been tempted to bypass Allen, there are a few other players that come to mind as replacements; players "more deserving" than Wallace, if such a phrase can indeed be used in this situation. Jose Calderon comes to mind. A more obvious option is Hedo Turkoglu, who has been nothing short of phenomonal in keeping the Magic firmly entrenched in third place the whole season. Heck, even Michael Redd should get a look before 'Sheed.

David Stern's had to put up with a lot of crap over the last couple years, mainly due to the mistakes of others (Suns players leaving the bench, cheating refs, players running afoul of the law, etc.). This time, though, Stern had the power, swung, and missed big time.

Anything involving a 7'1" 325-pound behemoth has to be big. In the case of the trade that landed Shaqille O'Neal in Phoenix and all the subsequent effects that will be felt, any size-indicating adjective is inadequate. Championship hopes, new roles, and widely varying expectations all came to the forefront when the Diesel rolled into the desert yesterday, and none of them will be answered until the season's end.

The first thing that everyone who has an opinion on this trade has to come to terms with is that this sudden and unexpected move by the Suns cannot be ruled "good" or "bad" until the postseason is over. Shaq could very well stink up the floor in the regular season while the team tries to adjust with him, only to give the Suns that half-court playoff element they've missed over the last few years.

There is no debate that the Diesel will have a profound effect on his teammates. Already, he's alluded to "Project Stoudemire," stating that he plans on helping Stoudemire become the best power forward in the league. Suns staff would be thrilled if Stoudemire indeed learns post footwork and shooting from the former MVP.

That statement, along with his goal to win the fifth and sixth championships of his career, bring a charisma, optimism and swagger that hasn't been seen in a Suns uniform since Sir Charles Barkley rolled into town. That can only help the Suns in the lockerroom, where bickering and veiled comments were the rule of the day.

Optimists point out that with both Shaq and Stoudmire patrolling the paint, penetration should be nigh unto impossible. In a conference featuring the likes of Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Kobe Bryant, that theory will be sorely tested. The Suns will also watch with trepidation when their defense as penetrated, knowing that Shaq and Stoudemire are the two most foul-prone big men in the league.

Also, how will Shaq affect Phoenix on offense? He's saying the right things now by professing how he'll start the break with his rebounding and outlet passes. How will Shaq feel after three or four consecutive fast breaks that conclude before he even makes it across half-court? Will he complain about lack of touches? Or will coach D'Antoni alter the offense slightly to take advantage of his talents in the post?

The biggest question mark concerning O'Neal is his health. The Suns might even be ok with O'Neal healing himself as long as necessary, hoping he'll be healthy and fresh for the playoffs. O'Neal's health status only highlights the fact that this team is suddenly much older, with O'Neal, Grant Hill, Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and Raja Bell all having had injuries and/or health issues in the not-too-distant past.

Because of his health, it's doubtful that Shaq will play more than 30 minutes a game, which should increase the load carried by Boris Diaw, who tends to be more productive with more consistent minutes. Also, by trading two smaller positions for a center, rookie DJ Strawberry has already seen more minutes, and responded well last night with 11 points on 4 of 6 shooting and stingy defense. Will D'Antoni be willing to change/expand his rotation permanently with the sudden decrease in the guard/forward department?

Ultimately, the effect of Shaquille O'Neal on the Suns for good or evil can't be measured until the Suns win the championship or fall short in their attempt. Until then, a lot of questions need to be answered, and all of them come back to the Big If.

Flashback to the summer of 1999. The Phoenix Suns, recently ousted in the first round by the Spurs, were pulling out all the stops to sign promising forward Antonio McDyess to a contract extension. McDyess spurned Phoenix's offer and elected to take less money and more losing with the Denver Nuggets.

Stung by this unexpected turn of events and desperate to compensate for their obvious weakeness underneath, the Suns turned to their consolation free agent prize, Tom Gugliotta. "Googs" (as he was known), had proven to be capable of putting up All-Star numbers on a mediocre (at best) Timberwolves squad, averaging 20ppg and 8rpg in his last two seasons in Minnesota.

Heralded as the franchise's saving big man, Gugliotta proceeded to prove that putting up All-Star numbers on a playoff team was not as easy as being the primary and only offensive option on a bad club. Expectations, blown out of proportion, went unmet and unfulfilled.

Fast forward to today and take a slight detour to Los Angeles. The Lakers, after repeated attempts, were unable (or unwilling) to aquire Kevin Garnett from (go figure) the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kobe was angry, Bynum still an embryo of talent, and the rest of the Lakers a pitiful assembly of D-League talent.

The season commenced, and miraculously Bynum evolved into a 20-year-old man-child pillar of supernatural strength and potential. The supporting cast coelesced into a functional team that actually complemented Bryant, and the Lakers were suddenly contending for bragging rights in the Pacific division, where the Suns have remained virtually unchallenged for the last three years.

A mid-season knee injury to Bynum rang the alarm bells and threatened to derail the Lakers' season. Not knowing whether Bynum would be the force he was by the time the playoffs come around, the Lakers managed to swindle a curly-haired, one-time All-Star from a bad team (sound familiar yet?) in Pau Gasol.

While Gasol is certainly a capable big man, it will be interesting to see if he suffers the same drop in production that Gugliotta did after he joined Phoenix. Will Gasol's averages of 19ppg and 9rpg as Memphis' #1 option be similar on the same team as Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and (eventually) Andrew Bynum? If not, will he still be effective?

Remember, Gugliotta's averages dropped despite the only other star players on the team being the scoring-shy Jason Kidd and the offensively inconsistent Shawn Marion. He was the guy on the block for Phoenix. Gasol will have many more weapons around him, and his will be the challenge to produce in such surroundings.

Another concern for L.A. should be Gasol's health. Both he and Gugliotta are remarkably similar in their consistency to be injured fairly frequently, missing a few weeks here, or a month there. Gasol was unable to play Sunday because of back pain. Back issues are one of the few injuries that never quite go away, but always have a way of reappearing at inopportune times.

The guess here is that Gasol will be a nice pickup, but not the franchise savior everyone in Los Angeles envisions. Luckily for them, he doesn't have to be, not with Bryant, Odom and Bynum in tow. Assuming Bynum recovers completely, it may be enough that Gasol will turn out to be another "Googs."