My record at predictions is almost perfect.  Had it not been for that one time I accidentally was right it would be perfect.

Still I make predictions.  Why?  Because people who do it as badly as I do go on television or the internet and do it every day.  It looks like fun.

You hope for that one great day where somehow you actually do get something right.  People remember that.  The bonus is there are so many wrong predictions by professional sports media it is virtually impossible to remember any of them.

Which brings me to Michael Vick.  And Brigadier General Charles Pomeroy Stone.

When the Civil War started the Union Army lacked competent officers.  Stone (a Democrat) was an old hand who had fought in the Mexican War.  He quickly made Brigadier General in 1861 and helped prepare the defenses of Washington at a time they were very weak.

In October of the first year of the war, Stone's command was sent on a reconnaissance in force just west of DC at Leasburg.  Stone was blessed, and I used the word with all the sarcasm which can drip off a computer keyboard, with a subordinate who was a good friend of the President and a US Senator.

Colonel Edwin D. Baker, Republican Senator of Oregon, was a man of great accomplishment and greater ego.  He took his small command over the Potomac River without orders, not knowing what force was in front of him, and came near to getting it wiped out.  Late in the day, his back to a seventy foot bluff, he died leading his men into one magnificent mess.  Bodies were floating by the nation's capital for days.

Being a politician, and being a friend of the President, it came to pass that Baker was blameless.  Someone had to be responsible, so a whisper campaign was started against Stone.  He must be a spy, he was too soft on the Virginians, he sent Baker off to be killed because he was a closet Confederate.

So Stone, on next to no evidence, is rounded up and thrown in jail without charge.  He is in poor health, more than a bit disconcerted at being arrested, and is confined in a fort in New York Harbor.  In the winter.  The hope is that time, tide, and drafty quarters will kill him off.

Stone, however, was made of sterner stuff and lived.  Eventually, Congress passed a law requiring he be charged or released and the Articles of War (which mandated a charge be levied within ninety days).  The Lincoln administration kept him in jail for eighty-nine days after the bill passed just for spite.

An administration official was asked why Stone was still being held when everyone knew he was innocent.  The response was that he served as an example to other Democrat officers who might not be cooperative with the adminstration.  He is worth, said the official, a division in the field while sitting in jail.

Which brings us to Michael Vick.

Michael Vick won't be back this year.  Michael Vick may not even be back next year.

Why?

Because Michael Vick is worth more to the NFL not playing than he is on the field.  If Commissioner Goodale refuses to reinstate Vick it will be a rather frightening example to NFL players that, as the Buffalo Springfield once sang, "Step out of line, the man come, and take you away."

The millionaire boys club which is the NFL begrudgingly pays top dollar to players.  But they prefer to purchase a certain level of behavior with their money.  The fewer dreadlocks, tattoos, arrests, and attitudes the better.

If Vick is allowed to come back this fall, what is the message?  Business as usual.  You go out at 3 a.m.  Got some residue in the ash tray and an automatic weapon under the seat.  What are they going to do, fire you?

Well, maybe they can.

If Michael Vick is suspended for a year or more, maybe you think twice.  Or, in some instances, maybe you actually think for the first time in your young life.  And go home before midnight and get an unlisted number so none of the fast company you keep can reach out and renew acquaintances. 

Another thing people miss about Vick is the very real chance that a full season suspension this year effectively finishes him as a star quarterback.  Football is ten times faster on the field than on TV, and missing a season means slower reads and reaction.  Missing two seasons as a quarterback almost certainly means you never get back to where you were, if at all.

Which is OK by the NFL.

Prediction.  Goodale keeps Vick on the sideline this year and maybe out through the first part of the season after that.  Three missed training camps equals no more Michael Vick, at least as a quarterback.  It also means no PETA protestors in the packed parking lot (say that one three times fast). 

What become of General Stone?  After he was let go he was reinstated but followed by detectives constantly.  He served in Mississippi before getting fed up with it all and resigning in 1864.  Married a Southern girl, did a little gold mining, and eventually hired out as a general in the Egyptian Army.

An engineer by trade, Stone eventually came back to New York and got a job on a big project.  Seems they were planning a statue out in the harbor and they needed someone do design the massive pedestal it would sit on.

They call it the Statue of Liberty.

Will Michael Vick make a mark when he's done playing?

Maybe by not being allowed back he already has.