Wow, Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee have become the most entertaining male pairing since Felix and Max in the "Odd Couple". Accusations, secretly taped conversations, a deathly ill child, and lawyers working on both sides to outmaneuver each other. Whew, what drama!!!!!!!
I'm writing this piece a year ahead of time, because I already know how this is going to play out.
My greatest prediction for Major League Baseball (MLB) in 2008 is that none of this steroid/HGH stuff is going to matter. People will still shell out big money to go to Red Sox games and league attendance records will continue to be broken, especially if Colorado Rockies fans ever decide to support their team on a full-season basis.
We live in a hyperstimulated age. Everything has to be flashier and brighter than it was previously. I just saw an ad for EPT (yes, the Early Pregnancy Test) and now the device comes in 4 different colors. That must be for people who want to put a small chain on it and have it dangle from their purses and knapsacks. Coca-Cola and Pepsi have spent big money to jazz up their labels in order to sell more soda because they just want to keep America well-hydrated. Playstation 3, Xbox 360 and the Nintendo Wii are looking for new and exciting ways to suck even more people into the gaming world. Despite the fact that America faces an escalating weight epidemic combined with increased costs for grains like corn and wheat, fast food restaurants are still trying to find a way to super-super-size everything.
If you still don't think you're being hyperstimulated, then try playing a game of "Doom" or "Call of Duty" on your computer for a few hours. It's an experience that will give you a bizarre cyberworld form of post-traumatic stress disorder.
Do you know what MLB's biggest worry is? What if it does clean up the game and suddenly instead of seeing teams score an average of 4 to 6 runs a game (note: the worst team in 2007 the Washington Nationals averaged 4.15 runs per game) the average drops to only 2 or 3 runs a game?
This is the same problem that the NFL wrestled with years ago and their solution was to skew the rules to give the offense a major advantage. Don't believe me? How is it that a ball carrier's initial forward progress can be stopped by the defense at the 50-yard line, and then he can literally be pushed forward 50 yards into the opponent's end zone for a touchdown, but he can't be pushed backwards 50 yards for a safety?
Baseball needs people to actively chase records in order to compete in today's hyperstimulated world. The fans want to see guys like Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees tickle 100mph on the radar gun. Heck, they want to see him hit 110mph. The fans want to see someone break Barry Bonds home run record, which means that we're all in the unenviable position of having to root for A-Rod.
The fans want to see baseballs flying out of the park at a record clip. In today's hyperstimulated world, I guarantee that many of today's fans love to see a 2-1 game, but only when it's sandwiched between an 8-6 game and a 10-4 game.
Folks, the steroid scandal is not something new. Anyone who has followed baseball for a while knows that steroids have been an ongoing problem. But unlike a baseball strike, the fans don't outwardly react by boycotting games. Do you think that people will decline to renew their box seats at Yankee Stadium because Andy Pettitte or Roger Clemens used steroids and/or HGH?
And when you add things like the rising popularity of fantasy baseball to the mix - a nice cheap way to suck even more people into following multiple MLB teams - then it's in MLB's best interest to keep up the big offensive numbers. Heck, defensive numbers aren't even used for the fantasy baseball league scoring systems that I've seen. That shows you where the priorities are.
Some people might point to the NFL as an example of how to be tough on steroids and yet keep the scoring high. After all, a record 11,104 points were scored this season in the NFL. That's an average total score per game of 43.4, the highest in the past 25 years.
The problem is that the NFL has latitude in its rules which allow it to create more scoring. In fact, there are still certain rules which the NFL could tweak to increase scoring even more. But baseball doesn't have this ability. The tie already goes to the runner and the strike zone couldn't be any narrower than it already is. How could you possibly generate more runs in baseball?
So, here is the major conflict that MLB has to face: how does it clean up the game without becoming BORING. For a league that is clearly focused on the bottom line of revenue generation, becoming boring and obsolete to the public is a far greater threat than steroids ever could or will be. That is MLB's real battle. And fortunately for baseball, you have a lot of top-notch chemists out there who are currently working on or may have already developed the next undetectable anabolic agent. You have the MLBPA which will do everything possible to prevent any testing above the minimal amount it allows now. In the end, both of these groups will keep baseball exciting.
Some or many of you reading this may strongly disagree. You might even think that baseball is on its deathbed. You couldn't be further from the truth. Baseball is alive and will thrive next season.
The truth is that the very population that baseball is trying to attract - the 10- to 24-year old crowd - is not all that interested in whether or not players are using steroids or other performance-enhancing drugs. Older people might care, but in today's America, people of all ages are trying to be cool and younger, and this oftentimes means following where the younger generation goes. Don't believe me? Look at all the people over 50 years of age who now have iPods. As long as offensive numbers are up, people will continue to go to the ballpark and/or keep buying team merchandise. You know it, I know it, and most importantly MLB knows it.
When a star player like Roger Clemens openly admits to receiving multiple injections of painkillers like lidocaine and Toradol and ingesting prescription Vioxx likes they're skittles and no one associated with MLB blinks or thinks that it's concerning, then I know that there is not a lot of impetus to change anything. If you think that steroids should be banned for giving players an edge, then why not also ban prescription painkillers as well? Anabolic steroids may give some players who take them an edge, but big-time painkillers allow the majority of players who take them to get on the field and compete. Which do you think has a more immediate and important role for players in terms of daily performance?
In the end, real and comprehensive changes in the way MLB handles steroids, HGH, and other performance-enhancing drugs will only happen if fans make a statement by turning their backs on the game, but in today's hyperstimulated world that's not going to happen, because if fans do this then they might miss the next massive home run.
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