Ok, I said I'd be back with a more substantive top ten list and here it is.  If anyone has been around this site over the past month, he or she would know I give the Seahawks no respect.  I think they've proven nothing and I think Shaun Alexander, although very deserving from a statistical perspective, did not warrant the league MVP (gasp!).

Now I tried to write a preview of last week's Jags/Pats game, and with the help of some others, I saw that it was too opinion heavy and it lacked a lot of statistical backup in certain areas like special teams.  So I took it down.  Lo and behold, the game unfolded exactly as I had said it would.  I also picked the winners of the other three games.  Guess how many stats I looked at before the game?  That's right, zero.  I firmly believe that if you watch enough NFL, you can just as accurately predict the outcome of a game without stats as you can with stats.  I'm not being lazy, I'm being serious.  In many respects, stats are like Bible verses to me.  Whenever you show me one stat that indicates a certain thing will happen, I can probably find another one that will contradict it in some way.  No matter how much they seem to favor one side, stats don't win games.  That's why I prefer to take everything into account and make an educated guess, minus the stats.  You agree?  I didn't think so.

By the way, this is not a promotional stunt of sorts.  I seriously think the Skins are going to win the game straight up.  And I also realize not only that many people will give me a low score for making an assertion based on very little statistical evidence, but also that whatever happens, they are very unlikely to return.  But, if you've read either of my other two serious pieces over the last month, you would know that if I think I'm right, I'm not afraid to hold an unpopular view and stand by it until proven wrong (which very well may happen).  Regardless, here are my top ten reasons the Skins won't need the nine points this weekend.

10.  Home field advantage means nothing in this case.

I've heard a lot of talk about the advantage the Seahawks will hold this year with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  I don't agree.  It's not as if the Skins are a warm-weather team heading into a cold-weather climate in the middle of January.  They are also not a dome team going to play outdoors.  Speaking of dome teams, did everyone forget when the Seahawks team had home field advantage in last year's playoffs and they lost to the Rams?  The Rams.  They lost a home playoff game on grass to the Rams and a year later home field is supposed to give them a great advantage?  Bah!

9.  The power of the U.

Love'em or hate'em (mostly hate'em), you can't deny that Miami's football team is a consistent winner.  In my opinion, having the mentality of a winner is very often underrated when it comes to sports and making predictions.  You can be the most athletically gifted human being, and if you don't have it up top, it means nothing.  Clinton Portis, Sean Taylor, Santana Moss?  They're all from the U and they all play a major role in the Skins' game plan.

8.  Skins took the last one.

This is just baffling.  Back in week three, the Skins won the game outright.  Fast forward to the end of the season where the Seahawks haven't played a meaningful game in weeks and the Skins have won six games in a row, all of the sudden the Seahawks are 9 point favorites.  If I could bet my crutches, I would.

7.  The momentum factor.

See above.  The Skins have won six games in a row.  They're hot.  When a team goes on a tear like that into the playoffs, they're always dangerous, especially when the other team hasn't been tested in a long time.  Period.

6.  The Seahawks are this season's version of last year's Colts.

Does anyone remember last year's playoffs?  I seem to remember hearing a lot of "The Colts have finally turned the corner and this time they're going to get the job done.  Their offense is just too good for the Patriots to stop."  The Colts then proceeded to get their butts handed to them-again.  You can talk about not getting respect all day long.  Do something that deserves respect (i.e. not beating up on the Niners and Cardinals or shellacking a depleted and demoralized Eagles team) and then you might get respect.  You don't get respect by talking about not getting it.

5.  Seattle's atrocious schedule

I'm not making this up.  You can check this out.  Here are the Seahawks' wins from this year:  Cardinals (2), Niners (2), Rams (2), Texans, Falcons, Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Titans, Colts.  I see two wins against playoff teams:  Giants (a gift courtesy of Jay Feely) and the Colts (a completely meaningless game for the Colts).  We've touched on the Eagles game and the Cowboys game was also a gift.  I completely understand that a win is a win.  I've taken that into account.  But tell me why a 13-3 record against those teams warrants respect?  The Seahawks don't deserve respect.  They deserve a pat on the back for not screwing up.  That's about it.

4.  We just can't trust Matt Hasselbeck.

Remember what I said about having it up top and being a winner.  If during the coin toss of an overtime playoff game, you say into the ref's microphone, "we want the ball and we're going to win" and then you throw an interception that is returned for a touchdown to lose the game-you don't have it.

3.  Seattle's defense has not impressed.

I admit that they're better than they used to be.  But again, look at their schedule.  Also, they were down 24-14 against the Titans in a game that meant absolutely nothing to the Titans.  If you can't put a team away with nothing to play for (not even a rival or a team playing spoiler in the last game of the season) when you're still trying to gain home field advantage, I'm not impressed with your defense's ability.

2.  Coaching

Ok, Holmgren won it all with the Packers.  I'll give him that.  But what has he done since?  And who couldn't win it with Brett Favre when he was entering the prime of his career?  Joe Gibbs has multiple rings and has taken a team no one could turn around and once again make them a force to be reckoned with.  Advantage Skins.

1.  I am the most tortured sports fan in the history of man.

This might be the most convincing reason right here.  I made this point a while ago.  Last Philly championship?  1983.  I can remember watching sports back to when?  1984.  What's worse than not seeing your team make the playoffs?  Moving to one of their division rival's city and having to watch that team in the playoffs while you listen to all of their fans talk about it.

Well, there they are.  Let the name-calling begin.  I can't wait to hear the comments in response to this post.  I hope no small children with an advanced reading ability walk by my computer.  You know what, though?  Even if the Skins get beat 45-0, I'm happy with the fact that I had the guts to say what I thought was truly going to happen.  And I don't think anyone is betting his paycheck based on my expertise anyway.

***featurepresentation made a good point that I forgot to make.  If I were betting, I'd definitely take the points and not the money line.  But I still really do think the Skins will take it outright.