Hidden behind the Patriots' record-breaking season of scoring and near perfection was Bill Belichick's year-long lack of faith in place kicker Stephen Gostkowski. Considering the Patriots won all 3 of their Super Bowls this decade by a field goal (off the leg of current Colt Adam Vinatieri), it's fittingly ironic that they'd lose a title game because they didn't trust their kicker to convert from any respectable distance.
Critics might say that Belichick was arrogant or insane to go for it on fourth and 13 from the Giants 31-yard line midway through the third quarter, rather than let Gostkowski attempt a 48-yard field goal. But if the old maxim remains true, that you don't change your playbook once you get to the Super Bowl, then it made sense that Belichick didn't let Gostkowski take a shot: He's had little faith in him all season; and whatever remained went out the window in the playoff game against Jacksonville, when Gostkowski missed a 35-yard kick with 57 seconds left in the first half, which would have put the Patriots up 17-14. After that, he never even attempted another field goal in the post-season.
Because the Patriots set an NFL record for touchdowns this season, Gostkowksi's field goal attempts were expectedly low. His 21 makes were good for only 25th in the league. Given New England's high-flying offense, that's not a red flag. What is, however, is this stat: Of the 31 NFL kickers who made at least 10 field goals in 2007, Gostkowski had the shortest long of the season, 45 yards. Belichick might have been crazy not to punt on fourth and 13, but not attempting a field goal was in keeping with what he knew about Gostkowski. Namely, that he had no history of success -- at least this season -- from anywhere north of 45 yards.
During the preseason, the Pats' kicker missed four kicks: from 33, 46, 53 and 56 yards. During the regular season, he missed three: from 41, 32 and 48. He only attempted 5 field goals of between 40-49 yards all season, making 3. In his two seasons in New England, he's only attempted 10 regular-season field goals of more than 40 yards, making 6 (including his career long of 52 yards last year).
The few number of attempts is a combination of two factors in particular: A high-scoring offense whom you trust to convert on fourth downs (Pats were 15 of 21 during the regular season) and a weak-legged kicker whom you distrust to make even moderately long field goals.
How big of a weakness was Gostkowski for the Patriots? During blowouts, none. But during a tight game like the Super Bowl, huge. Consider this: 24 of the 31 kickers who made at least 10 field goals this season also kicked at least one field goal of 49 yards or more. So 75 percent of regular NFL place kickers had tried AND converted that length of field goal. The Patriots, on the other hand, never even attempted a kick that long during the regular season.
So, what happens when you need to kick a 48- or 49- yard field goal in the Super Bowl? If you're Bill Belichick, you feel such a lack of confidence in your kicker that you go for it on fourth and 13. Can you really blame him?
The Patriots had just gone 16 plays in 8 and a half minutes to start the second half, even extending their drive with a brilliant challenge that nabbed the Giants with 12 men on the field. A field goal would have put them up 10-3. But because Belichick felt certain that Gostkowski would miss -- and perhaps frustrated with the possibility of a long and fruitless drive -- he chose to go for it on fourth and 13. The wise move would have been punting. The dumb move -- at least to Belichick -- would have been trying to kick a field goal. The ultimate move was turning the ball over on downs.
What was the immediate effect of that decision? Nothing really. The Giants punted on their next possession, then a field-position game ensued until New York took the lead 10-7.
Still, after New England refused to even attempt that long field goal, you knew they wouldn't be winning another title on a last-minute kick.
Down the road, if they don't find a kicker they can trust, they'll remain vulnerable...at least to losing Super Bowls by 3 points.