A few weeks back I read an interesting story on Hardball Times that analyzed Bartolo Colon's bounceback capability. In it, author Josh Kalk discussed the possibility that Colon's 2007 stats - 6.34 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a .320 batting average against - were the result of an inordinately high BABIP (.364), which is batting average on balls in play. In short, Colon was more unlucky in 2007 that he'd been in the past, when he was a Cy Young winner and weighed less than a Mini Cooper. Given this stat (and many others I didn't comprehend), Kalk said Colon would be a great risk-reward option for teams like the Rangers and Royals in 2008, because Colon (according to Kalk, anyway) projected to a 4.40 ERA and 120 innings pitched this season. Considering what Julian Tavarez provided in relief of Curt Schilling and Tim Wakefield last year - 23 starts, 6 wins, 11 losses, 5.22 ERA - doesn't Colon sound like a nice option now that Schilling has gone down again?

Given the dearth of quality pitching in MLB, I can't believe no team offered him a major-league deal. Then again, if I were Bartolo Colon, who's never won a World Series and probably doesn't need the money, I'd prefer signing a minor-league deal with the Sox - with the opportunity to pitch your way onto a playoff-caliber team - than ink a major-league deal with Kansas City or Texas, where quality pitchers go to die.

Great signing, Red Sox.

P.S. Is there a weight clause?

On the face of it, Manny Ramirez hiring Scott Boras is like President Bush hiring a campaign manager. Really, what's the use? Has all of Major League Baseball (both players and team ownership) decided to get together and drive Boras insane? A-Rod won't talk to him, Sheffield calls him a bad person, and now Manny wants his representation. But for what exactly? And why now?

The Red Sox hold team options on Manny -- $20 million per year in 2009 and 2010 -- so he can't opt out like A-Rod did last year. Meanwhile, Theo Epstein has said the Sox will wait until after the season before making a decision about Manny's 2009 option. He didn't, however, say the team would be unwilling to consider a new deal altogether. And really, when it comes down to it, why else would Ramirez need a negotiator like Boras?

Consider this: Ramirez has no chance of making $20 million a year anywhere else, so perhaps the two sides will agree to a three-year deal in the neighborhood of $15 million per season -- more total money than Ramirez would get if the Sox exercised the 2009 and 2010 options, more security for the player, but less per season on the Sox. As a fan, perhaps that's wishful thinking. But frankly, I can't think of any other reason why Ramirez would need to switch agents and bring in a negotiator like Boras. Unless, of course, he simply wants to drive the guy crazy with his eccentric demands. As a baseball fan, I'd be happy with that result too.

* The Red Sox are visiting the White House on Wednesday. Side bet: Larry Lucchino will be standing closer to President Bush than Theo Epstein when the press pool photo is released.

* I read that the Sox were taking Terry Francona out to dinner this week to discuss a contact extension. And by the Sox, I mean the entire management group, of course. According to the story, Francona is going to have dinner with Epstein, John Henry, Lucchino AND Tom Werner. The Sox initially wanted a table for 7, but Sen. George Mitchell and Bill James aren't able to make it. Listen, I know the Sox have won two titles in the last four years, and as a fan I shouldn't complain. But still I have to ask: "What the hell does Tom Werner do?"

* Veteran players have various reasons to return for "one more season." They're driven by a desire to win that elusive World Series, or perhaps reach a milestone, or perhaps make money after their ex takes half. These are the usual reasons. Mike Timlin has a new one: A desire to not look like a steroid cheat.

Timlin revealed to ESPN Radio's Mike Salk that one of the reasons he decided to come back for another season was to make sure there were no questions regarding his injuries from last year, according to a story reported in the Boston Herald. His fear, he said, was that after a fairly injury-free career, the steroid whispers that have encompassed baseball might come his way.

"I've had a healthy career for the most part. I've been generally dependable and strong for most of my career," Timlin said. "Now, as things are cleaning themselves up in baseball, I break down, and I don't want to be associated with having injuries and breaking down at the same time things are disappearing out of baseball. I have never done that stuff, but I don't want (it) to be speculated that I have."

* The following players are members of my 2008 Tail-Off Team, which I'll be outlining in additional detail at bugsandcranks.com. (Please, contain your enthusiasm.) These are the guys who won't be matching their 2007 outputs, either because they got paid and won't be nearly as motivated (Jorge Posada and Mike Lowell), their catcher thinks they're a liar (Andy Pettitte), or they simply don't pass the sniff test. You don't want any of these guys on your fantasy team, mostly because you'll have to overpay for their services. Ya know, provided they actually play this year.

Posada
Lowell
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Magglio Ordonez
Carlos Pena
Edgar Renteria
Jeff Francoeur
Reggie Willits
Brandon Phillips
Andy Pettitte
Joe Blanton
Ben Sheets
Rich Harden
Barry Zito
Dontrelle Willis
Gil Meche

* Apropos of nothing: I appreciate spring training so much more when there's snow on the ground in New England.

* Apropos of something: The whole A-Rod opt out/Cashman won't negotiate with him/Yankees lost face and look like wienies - story hasn't gotten much ink lately. Probably because the Bronx Bombers spent most of the winter not landing Johan Santana.

(Fort Myers, FLA) -- When I arrived yesterday at the Red Sox' spring training facility here in Florida, a beautiful media relations assistant handed me a sheet of helpful story ideas. She told me it's an open secret that baseball writers traditionally recycle the same spring training stories from year to year, so to save newbies like me from unnecessary exertion, the Major League Baseball media relations department has compiled a versatile list of tried and true story lines, useful in covering all 30 teams. As you'll see from this list, which I'm printing here at great professional risk, it's merely a matter of filling in the blanks and perhaps adding a few quotes.

Like you, I thought baseball writers actually worked during spring training. Turns out they just do Mad Libs.

* Due to visa problems in his home country of _______, outfielder _____ _____ will not be reporting to camp on time, said team spokesman _____ _____. "It's an outstanding traffic issue. An unpaid ticket. It's nothing really, simply paperwork. We expect him to be in camp soon and ready to go."

* Still battling the lingering effects of off-season surgery on his left ______, All-Star _____ baseman _____ _____ plans to go easy this spring, hoping not to reaggravate an injury that kept him shelved for the second half of last season. "It's a long season, ya know. If I'm going to be a help to my team in October, when we all hope to be playing, there's no sense pushing myself now."

* Mentioned in the Mitchell Report as one of the 89 players, current or former, who used performance-enhancing drugs, a contrite ____ ____ admitted to "mistakes in the past," but refused to go into detail about what exactly he did wrong and whether he considered himself a cheater.

* Several of his teammates were named in the Mitchell Report, but _______ shortstop _____ _____ refused to comment on what effect, if any, their public exposure will have on the team's 2008 campaign.

* Looking pasty and somewhat overweight, long-time hunter _____ _____ said he spent the off-season killing bears with a longbow on his ranch in north ______.

* Perennial MVP candidate _____ _____ says the _____ have a great chance to win the World Series this year. "If you don't come into camp thinking you have a chance, why come to camp at all?" he said. When asked if his assessment was "smack talk," ______ said, "Confidence isn't arrogance. If you can back it up, it ain't boasting."

* With his arbitration hearing scheduled for next ______, reigning National League _____ king _____ _____ said he expects to receive a fair salary. "Things are cool between me and _____ management," he said. "It's a business. They have to protect their interests, and I have to protect mine."

* To the surprise of everyone in the _____ camp, outfielder _____ _____ reported early.

* Unsigned beyond this season, veteran reliever _____ _____ says he intends to test the free-agent market, and has no intention of giving a home-town discount to the ______, for whom he's pitched his entire career.

* Incumbent ______ fielder _____ _____ says he's aware of the trade rumors surrounding him, and intends to compete vigorously with rookie phenom ______ _____ for the team's starting position and its leadoff spot in the order.

* Veteran designated hitter ____ _____ says he'd like to finish his career in ______, which signed him to an incentive-laden contract when no one else would. "I love it here. My wife and kids love the community too. It's our home now," he said.

* Manager _____ _____ says the team's April schedule looks rather _____, with three early series against division opponents. "Hey, we don't make the schedules, we just play the games they tell us to play," he said.

* Journeyman pitcher _____ _____, known for his bullpen antics and clubhouse spirit, says the groupies in ______ give the best ______.

Now that the Mitchell report has blemished the on-field accomplishments of so many players from the Steroids Era, "clean" players like Mike Mussina and Pedro Martinez are congratulating themselves for doing so well during that period of inflated power numbers.

Mussina, a 250-game winner during a major league career that began in 1991, said this yesterday of people (like teammate Andy Pettitte) who've admitted using performance-enhancing drugs: "That's just the decision they made. I feel better about myself because I competed against them and I succeeded."

Apparently Mussina had been down on himself lately, which makes sense given his 2007 season (11-10 record, 5.15 ERA).

Martinez, meanwhile, fresh off the recent news that he enjoys watching chickens peck each other to death, said his accomplishments -- 3 Cy Youngs and the near-beheading of Don Zimmer -- look even better now, given the revelations about the Steroids Era.

"I dominated that era and I did it clean," he said. "I can stand by my numbers and I can be proud of them."

Left unsaid by holier-than-thou players like Mussina and Martinez is how their silence (and that of many other players, coaches and baseball officials) helped contribute to the Steroids Era in the first place. It's quaint how they think that going about their business and not worrying about the actions of others somehow makes them inculpabe. Mussina feels better about himself? Of course he does, because now he can look down his nose at Andy Pettitte (a true big game pitcher, which Mussina never was) and think, "Well, I may have never won 20 games, a Cy Young or a World Series, but at least I didn't take HGH from my ailing father."

Congratulations, Mussina, you're a paragon of virtue. You may not have taken performance-enhancing drugs, but you didn't prevent others players from taking them either. Moreover, you didn't report their use to the league. But I'm sure a Stanford grad like you, who thinks Will Shortz is a genius, had no idea that other players in your clubhouse were dabbling, including Roger Clemens, Pettitte, Jason Giambi and Mike Stanton. Even if had you possessed those basic powers of common sense and observation, clubhouse culture would have precluded you from ratting on your them, wouldn't it? So you're free and clear. Free and clear to continue playing with cheaters and benefitting from their skills -- at the plate and in the field. And free and clear to ride their coattails towards that elusive World Series title, while making millions of dollars as a New York Yankee. And as one of them (Pettitte) gets dragged through the village square and pelted with apples, you can also stand above the fray and feel "better about yourself."

You're a real man among boys, Mussina.

I ought to warn you though: You and Pedro should not to pat yourselves on the back so hard. You're risking injury, which is particularly foolish in your walk years. And god knows the two of you have many more years to feel good about yourselves -- doing crosswords and watching cockfights, that is.

Cleveland Indians fans ought to be rejoicing about C.C. Sabathia's decision to postpone contract negotiations until after the season. The reigning American Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent after 2008, and the Indians had reportedly offered him a contract extension in the neighborhood of four years/$68 million. But rather than sign what he believes is a below-market contract (especially in light of Johan Santana's $123.1 million deal with the New York Mets), Sabathia will pitch his walk year without the insurance of a long-term deal. If you're an Indians fan, you have to love this, because Sabathia will be motivated and focused, leading a pitching staff that took the World Series-winning Red Sox to 7 games in the American League Championship Series, as opposed to the Sabathia they could have had, i.e., a paid, content Shaun Alexander clone, who leads his team to the precipice of greatness, wins an MVP award, gets paid, lands on the cover of Madden football, can't stay healthy, and is soon splitting carries with Maurice Morris.

Let the player stay hungry, I say. Last season, that's what the Red Sox did with Curt Schilling and what the Yankees did with Mariano Rivera, and it certainly motivated those two guys, albeit after some bitching, posturing and threats to walk after the season. Listen, the player can pout all he wants, but it does him no good. If he's in his walk year, he needs to perform in order to get paid well in his next contract.

What good is it to lock up Sabathia with a $100 million deal right now? Sure, it'd be great for him. But I'm telling you, that guy'd weigh 350 by the All-Star break, and frankly, I wouldn't blame him. If you handed me a guaranteed contract worth that kind of scratch, where's my head going to be? On staying fit, healthy and motivated? Or on buying a small private island in the Caribbean? It's quaint to say that players are professionals and they'll go out and do their jobs, regardless of whether they're making the league minimum or A-Rod money. But the fact is, they're humans first. Ask any Bronze Age caveman: "If you knew you could stay back at the fire, eat, drink and fornicate all day, wouldn't that affect your attitude towards hunting?" Of course it would, because in the back of his half-formed cranium, he's thinking, "Man, I don't need this shit."
 
All you need to know about $100 million contracts are the names of the pitchers who've signed them: Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and, now, Johan Santana. After signing their deals, Brown, Hampton and Zito won as many World Series as Joba Chamberlain. Sure, Zito only signed his contract last year, but the Giants will be contending for titles when Brian McNamee lands his next job in baseball.

On the face of it, the Mets fleeced the Twins by sending them the poo-poo platter for Santana, who's won two Cy Youngs in the last four years. But the Twins' biggest mistake was not keeping Santana and making him pitch through his walk year. I realize the Twins can't afford to pay him the same kind of money that Cleveland can possibly pay Sabathia, but the situation is somewhat comparable. The Indians, who haven't won a World Series since 1948, probably have no intention of signing Sabathia to a 6-year contract in the neighborhood of $120 million, even after this season. Consequently, they've decided to make their run now in 2008, which is exactly what the Twins should have done. With Santana and Francisco Liriano, I believe the Twins had an outstanding chance to win the World Series this season. Instead, they trade him to the Mets for a bunch of prospects, while the Tigers improved greatly and the Indians remain hungry and on the brink.

 And what do the Mets get in Santana? They get a caveman with a full belly, who's supposed to be motivated by the opportunity to make his legacy in New York, winning championships.

Frankly, I'd rather have the hungry guy, motivated to get paid, rather than the paid guy, motivated to justify the money he's already received.