Last Week's Record (including my college pick): 7-6

Season Record: 78-64-4

While I had another semi-disaster with the early-afternoon games (3-5), I got the big ones: Cowboys, Chargers, and Jaguars.  With those winnings combined with my Manny Pacquiao TKO-KO-DQ bet, I was in high spirits as the sports weekend came to a close.  

And just two days later, I'm all set for another week, as the Thursday games bring an early beginning to Week 12.  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

This weeks' picks (in bold):

1. Dolphins (-2.5) at Lions: With Lions' RB Kevin Jones out, I'm very surprised by this line.  My preliminary handicapping had the Lions as five-point underdogs.  Even though I usually like the home dog, I can't consider the Lions unless I'm getting more than a field goal.  The Dolphins have looked solid lately, and that defense should be able to handle an increasingly weak Lion attack.

2. Buccaneers at Cowboys (-11): The Cowboys know that last week's huge win over the Colts means nothing if they suffer a letdown loss to the Bucs.  But I don't see them having much difficulty, considering that Bucs' QB Bruce Gradkowski has trouble consistently connecting with his receivers.  WRs Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton are a far cry from Indianapolis' Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.  Plus, the Bucs had to travel on Wednesday, making for a very short week after their close win over the hapless Redskins.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys know how to prepare for the Thanksgiving game. 

3. Broncos (-1.5) at Chiefs: This is a tough one to call, but the Bronco defense should be able to neutralize Chiefs' RB Larry Johnson.  QB Trent Green could be forced to win the game with his arm, and that's tough with CB Champ Bailey in coverage.  Broncos have the mental edge in this one, as the Chiefs' offense isn't nearly as explosive as the Chargers, and the Broncos have something to prove after suffering a heartbreaking loss on Sunday night. 

4. Jaguars (-3) at Bills: The Jaguars looked great against the Giants on Monday night.  That defense should be able to bottle up QB J.P. Losman and RB Anthony Thomas.  The Jaguars will miss safety Donovan Darius come playoff time, but it won't matter too much in this one.

5. Texans at Jets (-6): Nothing cures offensive woes like the Texans coming to town.  TBut the Jets need to figure out who's the main guy in that running game, as Chad Pennington will start rolling once defenses stop keying on the pass.  Also, the Jets' defense has been a lot better lately, and that doesn't bode well for a Texan offense that struggles to consistently move the ball.

6. Steelers at Ravens (-3): The Ravens have looked great in the last few games, while the Steelers needed a miracle finish to beat the Browns in an ugly, ugly game.  The Ravens should be touchdown favorites in this one.

7. 49ers (+6) at Rams: The Rams have dropped five in a row, while the Niners are steadily improving.  In fact, the playoffs aren't out of the realm of possibility for a team that was a laughingstock at the beginning of the year.

8. Saints (+3) at Falcons: If Drew Brees didn't have mental lapses at the goal line last week, the Saints would have beaten the Bengals, who gave up over 500 yards through the air.  While the Saints defense has also had major problems defending the pass (against the Bengals and Steelers), the Falcons' Michael Vick is too inconsistent to match Brees. 

9. Panthers (-3) at Redskins:  When I see lines like this, I wonder why I even need to pick any other games.  The Panthers are resurgent, and they're coming off a a shutout of the Rams.  Meanwhile, the Redskins have already mailed in this season, as they prepare for next year by grooming young QB Jason Campbell.  Julius Peppers is probably chomping at the bit in anticipation of this assignment.

10. Bears (+3) at Patriots: I recently read something that's right on point: when the Patriots are playing a good team, bet on the Patriots if the game means something; if the game doesn't mean much, bet on the other squad.  That was very true of the Colts game a few weeks ago.  And this game has even less importance since it's an inter-conference matchup that'll have little effect on any playoff tiebreakers.  On the other hand, this is a measuring-stick game for the Bears, and QB Rex Grossman needs to prove that he can play against good defenses.  I like the Bears in a low-scoring contest.

11. Giants (-3) at Titans: The Giants will look to rebound against a mediocre Titans' defense.  The Giants should win this one by double digits as they try to tune up for a huge NFC East showdown against the Cowboys on December 3.  If the Giants had beaten the Jaguars on Monday night, I might view this game as a potential trap.  But coming off the loss, the Giants should be very focussed on exposing the Titans' weaknesses.

12. Raiders at Chargers (-13.5): The Chargers will use a mixture of Michael Turner and LaDainian Tomlinson to impose their will on the Raiders' soft run defense.  I don't see the Raiders putting up much of a fight in this one.

13. Eagles at Colts (-9): The Eagles' offense is a mess without Donovan McNabb, and the Colts will be primed to avenge last weekend's defeat.  Against an Eagles defense that struggled to stop the Titans' running game, Colts' RB Joseph Addai could have a big game.

14. Packers at Seahawks (-8): The Packers' season appears to be crumbling, so they're the perfect opponent for Matt Hasselbeck's first game back from his knee injury.  Shaun Alexander could even get back on track against a weak Packer defense.  And with Brett Favre coming off an injury, the Packer offense could struggle.