Damon Jones, 4-1: At 6-3, 195 lbs, Jones is too small to undergo the rigors of the shootout.  Jones will get worn out towards the end of each round, as smaller players tend to suffer from heavy legs after taking a bunch of shots in rapid succession.

Dirk Nowitzki, 4-1: Dirk was 2-1 when the odds were originally posted, so the 4-1 odds might be a product of the sportsbooks trying to balance the action with more Dirk wagers.  I highly suggest betting on the reigning 3-pt shootout champion, as he showed few signs of fatigue last year.  Dirk's 7' 0", 245 lbs frame is well-suited for the contest.  Also, five of the 13 historical winners repeated as champions, and Dirk could join that list tonight.

Gilbert Arenas, 3-1: The problem for Arenas is that there are a limited number of balls, so he can't continue to shoot all night.  For the season, Arenas has taken 400 three-point shots, but he's only connected on 36% of them.  Sharpshooting just isn't Arenas' strong point, as he's better off driving to the basket or pulling up from mid-range.

Jason Kapono, 5-2: Bettors have been on the Kapono bandwagon in the last day, driving his odds down from 7-2 to 5-2.  The reason for the heavy action is Kapono's amazing three-point percentage on the year, as he's been accurate on 56% of his attempts.  The problem with this play is that Kapono's only attempted 156 three-pointers on the year, so he's not used to taking a high-volume of long-distance shots.  Still, at 6' 8", 215 lbs, Kapono has a big enough build to endure the two rounds.  But I think he'll need to notch a year of experience before competing for the title.

Jason Terry, 6-1: At 6' 2", 180 lbs, Terry is the smallest player in the contest, but he nearly advanced to the final round last year, as he missed out by one basket.  Terry was 10-1 when the contest opened, so the time to select him has already passed.

Mike Miller, 6-1: At these odds, Miller might be the best bet on the board.  He's 6' 8", 218 lbs, which makes him capable of going two rounds without tiring out.  Also, he's used to taking a lot of three-point shots (374 this season), and he's converted a respectable 42%.  And this isn't Miller's first time at the contest, as he participated in 2002 when the NBA allowed more contestants.  This past experience could prove to be a valuable advantage for Miller over newcomers Kapono and Jones.