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    About Me: As an amateur sports handicapper, I'm going to publish my analysis and picks for free. This forum provides me an easy method of keeping track of my handicapping record. Plus, if my picks are above 52.5% correct (above 50% on baseball moneylines), then I
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    About Me: As an amateur sports handicapper, I'm going to publish my analysis and picks for free. This forum provides me an easy method of keeping track of my handicapping record. Plus, if my picks are above 52.5% correct (above 50% on baseball moneylines), then I
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    Mavs Can Beat The Suns By Playing D'Antoni's Game

    Thursday, May 25, 2006, 09:50 AM EST [DeSagana Diop]

    Mavs' point guard Devin Harris had just driven to the basket, gotten fouled, and made a fantastic layup flying out of bounds. He converted the free-throw attempt, and the Mavs were up 114-105. I marked down in my notes that there was 3:40 to play in the game. Part of me was worried that the Mavs were going to start slowing down their offense, which would be a terrible idea because the Mavs built their lead by beating the Suns in the running game. If the Mavs had been playing the Spurs, slowing down the game at this point wouldn't have been a bad idea because the Spurs take a long time to set up their shots. To the Suns, on the other hand, 3:40 is like an eternity, as they habitually score before five seconds have elapsed from the shot clock. Alas, my premonitions proved true, as the the Mavs settled for jumpshots instead of attacking the rim in the final minutes of the game. The Suns were playing the same "ole" defense as the Mavs, so the Mavs would have kept their lead by taking the easy points in the paint. I have no idea what was going on in this team's heads during the final four minutes, but it was unacceptable. In the middle of the third quarter, the Mavs' surge demonstrated how they're going to have to play if they want to win this series. Adrian Griffin had just made a layup to cut the Suns lead to 71-67. Harris then read Shawn Marion's eyes, as the wily guard stepped in front of an outlet pass intended for a streaking Steve Nash along the wing. Harris quickly laid the ball in the bucket to pull the Mavs within two points. After a Raja Bell basket for the Suns, Harris again drove the ball to the rim, and he was fouled by Leandro Barbosa for the "and 1." Dirk Nowitzki rebounded Harris' missed free throw and drove to the basket to tie the game at 73-73. The Suns got flustered, and in their desperation to stop the Mavs' run, they launched a full-court pass that went out of bounds. Keith Van Horn then swished a three-pointer to put the Mavs up 76-73. On the next possession, Harris stole the ball and passed it down the court for an easy Van Horn layup. The Mavs were up 78-73, as the Mavs had just finished a 13-2 run by playing the fast-paced, frenetic game that D'Antoni preaches. When the Mavs play that game, they can beat the Suns because they're deeper and more athletic. But when the Mavs try to slow down the game, the Suns' running style catches the Mavs off guard in transition defense, leading to the kind of spurts that finished off the Mavs in this one. The big difference between the Mavs and the Suns is that the Mavs are bigger in the paint, and Nowitzki can dominate that part of the game. No jumpshots should be taken unless they're wide open looks, as the Mavs should be shooting 60 percent by attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Suns don't effectively contest the Mavs' drives because they don't have enough players to risk foul trouble. As a result, the Mavs must expose this lack of an interior defense. On the other end, the Mavs need Josh Howard back so that he can use his long arms to snatch the Suns' deep passes and force the Suns to take a more conservative approach to bringing the ball up the court. At that point, Nash will be forced to drive from a half-court set, where he's much less effective than in transition. The Mavs might want to consider giving Dampier and Diop more court time so that they can combine with Nowitzki to clog the interior. 72 points in the paint by the Suns harkens back to the 2002 Western Conference Semifinals when the Mavs consistently allowed Mike Bibby and the Sacramento Kings to get easy layups. The Mavs should be embarrassed for repeating such an awful defensive performance in this game, but they're not going to improve as long as Van Horn is getting heavy minutes. Speaking of Van Horn, the Mavs have lost three of the four games since his return, and even though he hit some nice three-pointers in Game 7 of the Spurs series, his defense was so bad that the Mavs won in spite of him. The Mavs can play the running style with athletic centers Diop and D.J. Mbenga in the game, and these big men would also make the Suns think twice about penetrating. The Mavs have the ability to win this series easily. They just have to be a little smarter down the stretch.
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