MLB (71.4 - 59.2)
Astros (Williams) Even at Pirates (Maholm): Woody Williams has pitched well against the three Pirates who he's faced enough times to develop significant trends: Jack Wilson (2-for-27), Adam LaRoche (2-for-10), and Jason Bay (1-for-9), with all the hits being singles. Williams hasn't pitched well this year (6.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP), but opposing starter Paul Maholm has been bad, too (6.19 ERA, 1.75 WHIP). Also, three Astros have had some success against Maholm: Chris Burke (5-for-12, 1 2B, 1 HR), Craig Biggio (3-for-7, 2 HR), and Morgan Ensberg (2-for-5, 1 HR). In a total of 85 plate appearances against Maholm, the Astros have posted the following stats: .310 BA, .419 OBP, .521 SLG.
Nationals (Bergmann) at Phillies (Moyer) -1.5 runs (-110): Veteran pitcher Jamie Moyer has pitched well this year: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. Also, he's had success against the Nationals' hitters in their 137 plate appearances: .213 BA, .284 OBP, .362 SLG. Although Jason Bergmann's shown decent stuff in his outings, his overall stats indicate that he has some control problems: 16 IP, 7 ER, 11 H , 11 BB, 15 K. The Phillies got in an offensive groove last night, and it'll be tough for a young pitcher to stop them.
Brewers (Suppan) at Cubs (Hill) (-150): Rich Hill has been terrific this season: 22 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 7 BB, 18 K. Against the Brewers' hitters, he's been simply dominant, as they have three hits in 50 at-bats, with 5 walks and 19 strikeouts. Meanwhile, although Jeff Suppan's having a decent year (3.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), several Cubs have hit him hard in their careers: Derrek Lee (18-for-38, 6 2B, 4 HR, 11 BB), Jacque Jones (12-for-37, 4 HR, 11 BB), and Aramis Ramirez (9-for-29, 4 2B, 1 HR).
Indians (Carmona) at Twins (Santana) -1.5 runs (-110): Johan Santana is the most dominant pitcher in the majors, and he's been performing well so far this year: 27 IP, 9 ER, 18 H, 7 BB, 32 K. On the other hand, Fausto Carmona is probably the Indians' worst starter: 10.1 IP, 8 ER, 13 H. Also, the Indians' bullpen isn't a strong point, so if Carmona gets knocked out early, the Twins shouldn't have a problem winning by more than a run.
Reds (Harang) +130 at Cardinals (Wells): After two subpar starts, Aaron Harang bounced back against the Astros last Wednesday with a strong outing: 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K. Meanwhile, Kip Wells has been on a downslide after starting off the season well. In his first two starts, he posted the following stats: 13 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 14 K. But in the last two starts he wasn't as good: 13 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 4 BB, 8 K. Both Wells and Harang have taken their lumps against the opposition, but I like the value in a Harang play, as he's the superior starting pitcher in this matchup.
White Sox (Vazquez) -150 at Royals (Bannister): The Chicago White Sox (10-8) will play the second of a two-game series against the Kansas City Royals (6-13) tonight at Kauffman Stadium. The White Sox must like playing after getting a good night's sleep, as they're 6-2 in night games. Chicago starter Javier Vasquez (2-0, 2.50) has done a good job of handling the Royals throughout his career, evidenced by his 4-1 record and sparkling 1.88 ERA against them. The Royals' starter for tonight, converted reliever Brian Bannister (no record), will be making only his seventh professional start and his first for the Royals. Bannister will have his hands full containing the White Sox' Jim Thome, who has seven hits in his last 16 AB's along with three long balls and five RBI. Chicago has won every time Vazquez has taken the mound this year and tonight should be no exception.
NBA (116 - 97)
Nets at Raptors (-5): The Raptors lost the first game due to a lack of playoff experience, as T.J. Ford and Chris Bosh seemed a bit tentative. But compared to the Nets' roster, they are such superior athletes that they should be able to bounceback in a critical Game 2 at home. This is a must-win for the Raptors, while the Nets have already done their job in Toronto by stealing the first game. In situations like this, the psychological factors play a major role, and I'm expecting the Raptors to win big. The series will tighten up again when they travel to New Jersey for Game 3.
Heat (+3.5) at Bulls: The Bulls won Game 1 because they killed the Heat on the offensive boards (13 to 4), and that was partly a result of Shaq being limited to 26 minutes due to foul trouble. After hearing nothing but complaints for the last two days, the officials will be more wary of calling fouls on Shaq, and he should reassert his dominance in the paint. The Heat have the NBA's best player in Dwayne Wade, and that makes them too good to go down 2-0 against an inconsistent team like the Bulls.
Lakers at Suns (-9): Game 1 was close until the 4th quarter because the Suns had trouble hitting their open jumpshots, and they were just 6-for-23 (26.1%) on three-point attempts. For the season, the Suns shot 39.8% from beyond the arc, so they're due to start draining three's. The Lakers don't have enough components to effectively run with the Suns, as Kobe Bryant seems to be the extent of their offense. The Suns should dominate tonight, and don't be surprised if this turns out to be a four-game sweep.
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