Yesterday: MLB: 2 - 3.1

MLB (47.1 - 33.2)

Red Sox (Matsuzaka) -150 at Blue Jays (Chacin): This line is going to be up to -170 or -180 by the first pitch, so take advantage of it now. I'll be back with more picks and analysis later, but I wanted all of my readers to jump on this valuable pick before the public increases the odds throughout the day...If you're now reading this for the first time, the line is now at -160. Hit it now. Matsuzaka has been very good in his two starts this year: 14 IP, 14 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 14 K. His loss to Seattle last Wednesday can be explained by the fact that opposing pitcher Felix Hernandez was lights out, and there was a lot of pressure on Matsuzaka: it was his first game at Fenway, and he happened to be facing Japanese icon Ichiro Suzuki. Matsuzaka also has an advantage tonight due to Toronto's injury-depleted lineup. Starters Troy Glaus and Reed Johnson are both on the disabled list. Closer B.J. Ryan is also out, which alters everyone's respective roles in the bullpen. Blue Jays' starter Gustavo Chacin has been just okay against the Red Sox' batters in their 144 plate appearances against him: .277 BA, .347 OBP, .385 SLG. David Ortiz has two homers in 24 ABs versus Chacin, who has given up six runs in 11 innings so far this year.

Padres (Maddux) -120 at Cubs (Miller): Wade Miller didn't pitch well in his only start of the year (vs. Milwaukee on April 8): 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2003, when he posted a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 187.1 IP. Meanwhile, Greg Maddux has been sharp so far in 2007: 11.1 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. Only five of the Cubs' batters in the lineup today have faced Maddux enough to develop any significant trends. If you average their numbers, they have a .292 BA, .330 OBP, and .357 SLG against the future Hall of Famer. That's not terrific, but the Padres should be able to put enough runs on the board against Miller to get Maddux the win.

Pirates (Gorzelanny) at Cardinals (Wainwright) -1.5 runs (+125): Last night, the Pittsburgh Pirates got their second win in two years at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals will try to prevent the Pirates from taking the second of a two-game set this afternoon. Pittsburgh will send southpaw Tom Gorzelanny (1-0, 1.50) to the hill versus the hard-throwing Adam Wainwright (1-0, 1.98). Although Gorzelanny had a great outing against the Cardinals last Tuesday, he failed to factor in that decision and will need to pitch very carefully today to avoid the dangerous bats of Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen. The slow start of Pujols has probably influenced the public's opinion of the Cardinals in a negative way. Against a lefty like Gorzelanny, Pujols could be in for a feast. Wainwright has been solid through 13.2 innings this year, going at least six innings in both starts, and he has a nice history of stopping the Pirates' most dangerous hitter, Jason Bay (0-for-4 against Wainwright).

Mets (Glavine) -120 at Phillies (Garcia): Glavine's been very good in his three starts this season: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Against the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell have had success, while Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled. Rollins has an amazing six homers in just 66 at-bats against Glavine, and Burrell has gone deep four times in 63 at-bats. On the other hand, both Utley and Howard have hit below .200 against Glavine. For the Phillies, Freddy Garcia is making his first start of the year after nursing a biceps injury; as a result, it's unknown whether he's 100%. Garcia has struggled in his career against Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran. Delgado has a .357 BA, .455 OBP, and .786 SLG versus Garcia. And Beltran's numbers are even better: .429 BA, .469 OBP, .857 SLG. Glavine's the safe pick in this one, as Garcia could struggle in his first game back.

Braves (Smoltz) -1.5 runs (-130) at Nationals (Williams): Continuing with the trend of picking the Big Three Aces from the 1990s Braves' teams, I'm taking John Smoltz, who pitched well in a loss to the Nationals last Thursday: 8 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 4 BB. Ryan Zimmerman and Austin Kearns are the only regulars in the Nationals lineup who have had success against Smoltz; everyone else is near or below the Mendoza line (.200 BA). The Braves only scored one run on five hits last night, and that offense is too good to stay in a slump for long. Opposing pitcher Jerome Williams has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up ten hits and six walks in 11 IP. Williams played most of last year at the AAA level, and he didn't fare too well: 111.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.61 WHIP.

Rangers (Tejeda) +130 at White Sox (Garland): The White Sox have been struggling offensively, and it won't help that their regulars have never faced Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda was terrific against the Red Sox before laying an egg last week against the Devil Rays, but it's tough for hitters to face a pitcher with good stuff for the first time. And the Rangers could score a lot of runs off of White Sox starter Jon Garland, as cleanup hitter Mark Teixeira has absolutely owned him. Teixeira has 15 hits in 34 at-bats against Garland, and ten of those hits have gone for extra bases (four homers and six doubles). When looking at Garland's career numbers, his excellent 2005 (3.50 ERA, 1.17 wHIP) seems to be an abberration. And even though he won 18 games last year, he posted a 4.52 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Marlins (Mitre) vs. Astros (Oswal) -1.5 runs (even): Marlins' starter Sergio Mitre is the poster boy for the theory that expansion has diluted the pitching talent in baseball. In 172.2 IP at the major-league level, Mitre has a 5.91 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. So far this year, he hasn't shown much improvement: 11 IP, 16 H, 5 ER, 4 BB. Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt is coming off of a gutsy win at Philadelphia, in which the ace braved windy conditions and lots of cheap hits. Oswalt allowed six earned runs in five innings, but he deserved the win considering that any other pitcher would've given up at least ten runs in the same situation.

Giants (Cain) -110 at Rockies (Hirsh): Rockies' starter Jason Hirsh has begun the year well: 11.2 IP, 12 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 11 K. But he's never pitched at Coors Field, and his first two starts came in pitching parks (at San Diego and at LA). Meanwhile, Matt Cain has been absolutely filthy this season: 13 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 10 K. The walks need to go down, but as long as hitters can't make solid contact against him, Cain should be able to pitch well in even the toughest hitters' parks. Also, the Giants' offense has been hot lately, so Cain should finally be able to earn a much-deserved win tonight.

Angels (Weaver) at A's (Gaudin) Even: Although the Angels and the Athletics both have 6-7 records, the Halos have been in a total tailspin lately, losing 4 in a row. During the Boston series, the Angels were outscored 25-3. When Vladimir Guerrero was plunked yesterday on the wrist by a Josh Beckett fastball, the Angels not only lost their best hitter overall, but the one hitter on their squad who has more than one hit off tonight's A's starter, Chad Gaudin. Guerrero should remain sidelined for at least the next couple of days, leaving the Angels high and dry without their number-one run producer. In the noisy confines of McAfee Coliseum, Gaudin will have the support of the boisterous Oakland fans. Gaudin has performed well in place of the injured Esteban Loaiza, throwing 10.2 innings while allowing only 3 ER and 8 hits. In that same span, Gaudin has accumulated an impressive 3/1 K/BB ratio. The Angels will counter with the fragile Jered Weaver, who will be making his first start of the year after opening the season in the DL with tendinitis in his right biceps. Weaver had an impressive rookie campaign last season (11-2, 2.56), but will probably be a little rusty tonight as he gets himself re-acclimated to facing big-league hitters.

Twins (Ortiz) -110 at Mariners (Weaver): One glance at Jeff Weaver's line from this year is enough to tell you he's horrible, but how bad is he really? Well, through two innings of work, he's been pounded to the tune of seven hits, seven runs and one walk. Allow me to remind you that this is through two innings. Twins' hitters Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Torii Hunter (.455 against Weaver) must be chomping at the bit to get a piece of Weaver. Tonight, 33-year-old veteran Ramon Ortiz will get the ball for Minnesota. The Twins must love what Ortiz has done in his first two outings, throwing 15 innings while allowing only three runs. Keep in mind that Ortiz accomplished this task in part versus one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, as he limited the Yankees to three hits and one run in eight innings. If Ortiz can perform like this against New York, he should be able to match the feat against the Mariners' miserable offense.