Yesterday: MLB: 3.1 - 2.4

MLB (44.1 - 24.8)

Angels (Santana) +170 at Red Sox (Beckett): Red Sox' starter Josh Beckett has fared well against the Angels' hitters in their 121 plate appearances against him: .218 BA, .296 OBP, .300 SLG. And he's been dominant in his 12 innings this year (two wins), as he's only allowed four hits, two runs, and four walks, while striking 13 batters. But is this the "real" Beckett, or is it the one who had a 5.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 204.2 IP last year? My guess is that he's somewhere in between. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Ervin Santana struggled last week against Cleveland after dominating Texas in his first start. In the Red Sox' 60 plate appearances against Santana, they've accrued a .288 BA, .383 OBP, and .577 SLG. But Santana's a young pitcher who's coming off his first full major-league season, in which he posted a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 204 IP. Santana will continue to improve as the season progresses, and I like the line value here, as he could get a lot of run support from a formidable Angels' lineup if Beckett makes a few mistakes. Note: Game postponed due to rain.

Devil Rays (Seo) at Twins (Bonser) -1.5 runs (+120): Jae Seo's been pretty awful this year: 9.1 IP, 19 H, 4 BB, 10 ER. And he wasn't too much better last season: 157 IP, 5.33 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. That WHIP is ominous, as it means that Seo's allowing more than three baserunners every two innings that he pitches. In the Twins' 99 plate appearances against Seo, they have a .315 BA, .369 OBP, and .533 SLG. Meanwhile, Boof Bonser had a rough start against the Yankees last week, but that followed a very good performance to start the year. In 19 plate appearances against Bonser, the Devil Rays have a .263 BA, .263 OBP, and .474 SLG. Granted, that's a limited sample size, but Bonser's numbers from last year suggest that he's a lot better than Seo: 100.1 IP, 4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.

Brewers (Sheets) -110 at Cardinals (Looper): In his first year as a major-league starter, former reliever Braden Looper has only allowed ten hits, four walks, and three runs in 13 innings. But he's had trouble against Milwaukee in their 66 plate appearances against him: .328 BA, .409 OBP, .397 SLG. Meanwhile, Ben Sheets has handled the Cardinals well in their 308 plate appearances: .257 BA, .297 OBP, .414 SLG. Sheets is hoping to return to his 2004 form, when he posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 237 IP. Injuries set Sheets back the last two years, but the word is that he's finally healthy and ready to re-emerge as a top-notch NL pitcher. Also, Sheets is pitching on seven days' rest, which is usually a good thing for a power pitcher.

Reds (Lohse) at Cubs (Lilly) -1.5 runs (+140): In 80 plate appearances against the very mediocre Kyle Lohse, the Cubs have a .481 BA, .500 OBP, and .896 SLG. That's almost laughable. So far this year, Lohse has allowed 16 hits and six runs in 13.1 IP. But that doesn't count all the fat pitches that hitters have just missed on. Last season, Lohse had a 5.85 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 126.2 IP, so there's not much hope for improvement as the season progresses. On the other hand, Cubs' starter Ted Lilly has been surprisingly effective this season: 13 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 14 K. And he's been good in the Reds' 55 plate appearances agaisnt him: .212 BA, .250 OBP, .327 SLG. Also, because of Lilly's stint in the AL, most of the Reds haven't seen much of him. A lefthanded pitcher usually has the advantage in those situations.

Yankees (Pettitte) at A's (Harden) -110: 25-year-old Rich Hrden appears poised to have a breakout year after last year's injury-shortened season. In 13 IP this year, Harden's allowed eight hits, four walks, and two runs, while striking out 13 batters. All signs are that he's regained the form of 2005, when he posted the following numbers in 128.1 IP: 2.53 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 43 BB, 121 K. Staying healthy is Harden's big task this year, but as long as he's at full strength, he's one of the best pitchers in the league. On the other hand, Andy Pettitte's been a bit uneven this year. In his first start against Tampa Bay on April 5, he allowed six hits and three walks in just four innings of work. But he bounced back in a win over the Twins last week, as he allowed only four hits and a walk in six innings. Pettitte's coming off of a subpar 2006 in which he posted a 4.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 214.1 IP for the Astros, and there's a question whether those numbers will continue to go up now that he's switched back to higher-scoring AL.

Giants (Cain) -waiting on line- at Pirates (Armas): In 67 plate appearances against Tony Armas, the Giants have rocked him: .355 BA, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. Armas struggled in a loss to the Reds in his only start of this season, as he gave up eight hits, five walks, and six runs in just four innings of work. Armas' numbers from last season don't offer any hope for improvement in the near future: 154 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, Giants' starter Matt Cain has one of the best young arms in baseball. In his limited matchups against the Pirates, he's given up six hits in their 18 ABs, but only one went for extra bases (a double by Pirates' pitcher Zach Duke). In 13 IP this year, he's allowed six hits, six walks, and four runs, while striking out ten. Last year, Cain pitched 190.2 innings in his first full season as a major leaguer, and he posted the following stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 179 K, 87 BB. The walks are a bit worrisome, but Cain's got such nasty stuff that it's hard for opposing offenses to bring the free passes around to score. Also, Cain's numbers were better in the final two months (3.12 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), indicating that he's improving as he gains experience. Note: Game postponed due to rain.

Rangers (McCarthy) -105 at Mariners (Ramirez): AL West rivals, the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners, will play the rubber-match of their three-game set this afternoon. Today's Mariners' starter, Horacio Ramirez, was the recipient of a mulligan during his first outing of the season versus the Cleveland Indians. In that game, which was eventually snowed out, Ramirez pitched four innings while walking six and allowing four runs. Things would have been much worse for Horacio had he not been the beneficiary of three inning-ending double plays. As far as today is concerned, when you have a mediocre pitcher on a team that hits an AL-worst .214 and has the second worst ERA in the AL (4.79) playing against a lethal Rangers offense, you start to see the value in the Rangers' -105 line. Ramirez has never faced the Rangers as a starter and he will have to figure out a way to deal with Texas' 2B Ian Kinsler, who has eight hits, including three homers, in his last 19 AB's. Brandon McCarthy will toe the slab for the Rangers. McCarthy has done fairly well in his previous appearances versus Seattle serving as a relief pitcher and will look to duplicate his last outing against Tampa Bay, where he threw six innings, striking out five and allowing only two earned runs. This line is a bit surprising and there is good value on the Rangers today.

Padres (Young) -110 and Dodgers (Wolf): Tonight's ESPN game of the week features NL West rivals, the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams are 7-4 and tonight's game could determine who is leading the division, should the Diamondbacks lose to the Rockies this afternoon. The Padres will give the ball to Chris Young (1-0, 2.13 ERA), and the Dodgers will counter with Randy Wolf (1-1, 3.75 ERA). Young will attempt an incredible feat in tonight's game as he will be going for his 26th straight win on the road, which would be a new major-league record. Tonight will mark Wolf's first start against San Diego since 2003. He will need more than luck on his side facing Padres' slugger Adrian Gonzalez and the rowdy Giles brothers, Marcus and Brian. If this game ends up being close and going late, the Padres have a big advantage in that their bullpen has been next to unhittable this year. San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman has baffled the Dodgers for years, as they've managed only 21 hits 108 AB's (.194) against him, with 14 of those hits being singles.