Yesterday:

MLB: 4.4 - 2.5; NBA: 1 - 1

MLB (41 - 22.4)

Reds (Arroyo) at Cubs (Hill) -130: In his only start so far this year, young lefthander Rich Hill pitched seven strong innings, allowing only one run on one hit, while striking out six and walking none. Although he didn't have good numbers during his first call-up of 2006, once he came back for a second time, he posted the following stats in August and September: 76.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.58 ERA, 78 K, and 21 BB. In fact, his numbers were even better in September than in August, which shows that Hill continues to improve as he becomes comfortable in the majors. Even though Reds' starter Bronson Arroyo is a good pitcher, he doesn't have Hill's superstar potential. Arroyo allowed four runs on eight hits in a loss to the Cubs on April 4, and he could have a down year after pitching 240.2 innings in 2006. Last year was the best of Arroyo's career, but that could be attributed to the fact that he was switching leagues, and lots of hitters were seeing him for the first time.

Astros (Williams) at Phillies (Hamels) -1.5 runs (+110): 23-year-old Cole Hamels has dominated the Astros' hitters so far in his brief career: 44 plate appearances, .075 BA, .156 OBP, .100 SLG. This year, Hamels has only given up ten hits and three walks in 13 IP, while striking out 15 batters. Also, Hamels seemed to get adjusted to the major-league level at the end of last year, as he posted the following numbers in August and September: 69.1 IP, 55 H, 19 BB, 76 K, 2.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. On the other hand, 40-year-old Woody William is on the downside of his career, and he's had a tough time with the Phillies' hitters in their 120 plate appearances against him: .313 BA, .339 OBP, .443 SLG. If the windy conditions persist in Philadelphia, the Phillies should have a big offensive day.

Rangers (Padilla) -110 at Mariners (Batista): Neither pitcher has done well against the opposing batters, but Padilla has had moderate success at Safeco Field in two starts: 12.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER. Although he's given up two homers at Safeco, this is the best park for Padilla's pitching style, as hitters don't get cheap blasts here. Padilla started off the season poorly against the Angels, but he rebounded with seven strong innings against the Red Sox last Sunday. Meanwhile, the 36-year-old Miguel Batista got bombed against Oakland in his only start of the year on April 4: 4.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER. Batista is coming off of a poor 2006 for Arizona, in which he pitched 206.1 innings with a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. If he gives up that many baserunners in the AL, his ERA will be stratospheric by the end of the season.

Marlins (Olsen) +120 at Braves (Davies): Scott Olsen's won both of his outings this year, but he's given up nine walks in 10.1 IP. That would be worrisome, but Olsen's track record suggests that walks won't be a big problem as the season progresses. In 2006, he gave up 75 BB in 180.2 IP, but he also struck out 166 batters. In 61 plate appearnces against Olsen, Braves' hitters have a .273 BA, .340 OBP, and .636 SLG. That's not very good, but the Marlins have been even better against Braves' starter Kyle Davies in their 49 plate appearances: .405 BA, .500 OBP, .857 SLG. Although Davies had a good outing against the Mets on April 8, he needs to string together a couple of good starts before he'll be deemed reliable. In 2006, Davies posted an 8.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in 63.1 IP.

Giants (Zito) -120 at Pirates (Armas): In 67 plate appearances against Tony Armas, the Giants have rocked him: .355 BA, .420 OBP, .565 SLG. Armas struggled in a loss to the Reds in his only start of this season, as he gave up eight hits, five walks, and six runs in just four innings of work. Armas' numbers from last season don't offer any hope for improvement in the near future: 154 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, Giants' starter Barry Zito has also struggled this year, but his career stats are much better than Armas', and I expect Zito to have a good game against a Pirates' squad that's never seen the lefthander. Also, Zito should get some run support today, as the Giants' offense woke up last night against Zach Duke.

Brewers (Suppan) at Cardinals (Wells) -130: Kip Wells has done well in his career against the Brewers' hitters, as they've posted the following stats in 200 plate appearances: .208 BA, .319 OBP, .312 SLG. In 13 innings this year, Wells appears to have rebounded nicely from an injury-plagued 2006, as he's only allowed six hits and five walks, while striking out 14 batters. With Dave Duncan's pitching expertise guiding the righthander, Wells could be returning to the form of 2003, when he posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 197.1 IP for the Pirates. Meanwhile, Jeff Suppan has been good against the Cardinals' batters in his career: .253 BA, .294 OBP, .445 SLG, but those numbers pale in comparison to Wells' performance against the Brewers. Suppan has lost both of his starts this year, as he's given up 15 hits, four walks, and six runs in 13 innings. Even though Suppan was a World Series hero last year, he wasn't actually all that great during the regular season: 190 IP, 4.12 ERA, and 1.45 WHIP.

Padres (Peavy) -120 at Dodgers (Schmidt): 25-year-old Jake Peavy hasn't dominated the Dodgers' batters in his career, but he's had moderate success in their 245 plate appearances: .268 BA, .318 OBP, .487 SLG. So far this year, Peavy's been terrific, as he's allowed only one run, eight hits, and four walks in 13 IP. Peavy wasn't very good during the first four months last year, but that could be attributed to a tired arm that developed as a result of the World Baseball Classic. In 2005, Peavy had a 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 216 K in 203 IP, and he appeared poised to become the elite pitcher of the next ten years. Peavy has regained that form, so it's tough not to take him when you're only laying -120 odds. 34-year-old Jason Schmidt isn't as tough a test as you'd think, as Schmidt hasn't pitched well against the Padres' hitters in their 264 plate appearances: .316 BA, .404 OBP, .589 SLG. Plus, Schmidt has given up ten hits, three walks, and four runs in just nine innings of work this year. Schmidt left his last start after his hamstring tightened up on him, and he now says that it was just a dehydration cramp. But we won't know if there's actually a lingering injury until we see him today. If he's favoring that leg at all, the Padres are going to bomb him. Also, Schmidt's been a bit uneven in the last couple of years. In 2005, he had a 4.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 172 IP, but he rebounded in 2006 to post a 3.59 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 213.1 IP. 2006 happened to be a contract year, so we'll see how Schmidt performs after getting "fat and happy" in the off-season.