Yesterday:
NBA: 1 - 1; MLB: 6 - 1.2
MLB (18 - 10.1)
Orioles (Bedard) +135 at Yankees (Rasner): Erik Bedard was touched up for six runs on ten hits in 4.2 IP at Minnesota in the opener on Monday. But he's normally a good pitcher in April (4-1, 3.69 ERA last year), and he was 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 14 K's in 12 IP vs. the Yankees in 2006. That includes a start at Yankee Stadium in which Bedard limited the vaunted Yankees' lineup to one run on five hits in six innings of work. Meanwhile, Rasner gave up five runs on five hits and three walks in his only start against the Orioles last year.
Pirates (Duke) Even at Reds (Milton): Pirates' starter Zach Duke looked good in the opener at Houston, as he allowed only two runs in 7 IP. On the other hand, this is Eric Milton's first start of the year, and he's just been plain bad since joining the Reds in 2005. Last year, he went 8-8 with a 5.20 ERA, and that was actually an improvement over his 2005 numbers (8-15, 6.48 ERA). In 2006, Milton was 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA when pitching in Cincinnati.
Phillies (Segovia) at Marlins (Olsen) -120: Zach Segovia will be making his MLB debut for the Phillies. He's only 23-years-old, and he hasn't pitched above the AA level, so the Marlins' hitters could feast off him today. Meanwhile, Scott Olsen is a good young lefthander who's only going to improve in the next few years. He did allow five walks in his start against the Nationals earlier in the week, but they could only muster two hits off him in 5.1 innings of work. Olsen's career 2/1 K/BB ratio shows that the walks shouldn't be a lingering problem.
Diamondbacks (Hernandez) -130 at Nationals (Hill): Livan Hernandez posted solid numbers in August and September last year after being traded from the Nationals to the Diamondbacks (3.46 ERA, 83 hits against (HA) in 83.1 IP). He also looked good at Coors Field this week, when he gave up only five hits and two runs in 7 IP. Even though Shawn Hill had a decent debut in a loss to the Marlins (5 IP, 5 HA, 2 ER), he's an unproven commodity. Hill missed all of the 2005 season after Tommy John surgery, and then he spent much of 2006 in AA before starting six games for the Nationals at the end of the season. He wasn't too good in those starts (4.72 ERA, 1.519 WHIP).
Cubs (Miller) at Brewers (Capuano) -120: Wade Miller has struggled the last three years, as he hasn't cracked 100 IP in any of those seasons. Last year, he only pitched 21.2 innings, and he's posted a 1.6 WHIP in the last two years combined. On the other hand, Chris Capuano's been a consistent starter over the last couple of years, and even though his 11-12 record in 2006 paled in comparison to his 18-12 mark in 2005, some numbers indicate that he actually made strides as a pitcher. Capuano's WHIP last year was 1.248, which was more than a point better than his 1.384 WHIP in 2005. This is explained by the fact that Capuano walked 44 fewer hitters last year despite pitching 2.1 fewer innings. As Capuano continues to trust his stuff, he'll be a solid contributor at the top of the Brewers' rotation.
Cardinals (Wells) at Astros (Jennings) -120: In six innings of work on Tuesday, Jason Jennings allowed only one run on five hits, and he struck out seven batters while allowing only one walk. Also, he's pitched well against the Cardinals in his career (3.52 ERA in 46 IP). Meanwhile, Kip Wells has a 5.03 ERA in 68 IP against the Astros, and even though he struck out seven batters in six innings against the Nationals this week, his four walks are worrisome. Wells has struggled with arm injuries, so he shouldn't be trying to strike out hitters, as that will lead to high pitch counts. Wells is coming off of three straight seasons with a WHIP above 1.5, and it's been rising each year. Also, his ERA has been just as bad (4.56 in 2004, 5.09 in 2006, and 6.53 in 2006).
Twins (Santana) -1.5 runs (-120) at White Sox (Danks): This is a run line, where the Twins have to win by more than a run in order to win the wager. The reason I'm selecting this line is that the regular moneyline is -200, and I don't think that offers enough of a payout to justify the risk. Johan Santana should shut down the White Sox today, as he's the best pitcher in the majors right now. Meanwhile, John Danks is making his MLB debut in the cold of Chicago. His AAA numbers from last year show that he's still developing as a pitcher: 4-5, 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 70.2 IP.
Tigers (Bonderman) -1.5 runs (-110) at Royals (Duckworth): Brandon Duckworth is a fringe #5 starter in the majors, as the 31-year-old is lucky that there are some teams with truly awful pitching. In eight starts last year, he posted a 1-5 record with a 6.17 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. On the other hand, Jermey Bonderman is one of the best young starters in the game. He had 202 Ks and 64 BBs in 214 IP last year, but he only struck out three batters in the opener this week. That's actually encouraging, as it shows that Bonderman might be concentrating on pitching to hitters, as opposed to overpowering them.
Dodgers (Wolf) at Giants (Zito) -130: Randy Wolf gave up four runs on seven hits in six innings of work in a loss at Milwaukee this week. He hasn't pitched more than 80 innings in either of the last two seasons. His great year in 2002 was followed by a so-so 2003, and his numbers have been mediocre since. After Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2005, Wolf is trying for a comeback, as the 30-year-old attempts to prove the cynics wrong. On the other hand, Barry Zito is at the top of his game, and he looked good in five innings of work against the Padres on Tuesday. But he was the victim of some bad fielding in the loss. Zito's making the switch from the AL to the NL, and hitters often have problems facing a decent lefty for the first time.
Red Sox (Schilling) at Rangers (Padilla) +120: Schilling didn't look good in his 2007 debut on Monday, as he allowed five runs, eight hits and two walks in just four innings of work against the Royals. Schilling had injury problems in 2005 after throwing over 200 innings in 2004. The same thing happened in 2003 after Schilling had thrown 200+ innings in 2002. The 40-year-old threw over 200 innings again last year, so it's very likely that he'll continue to have problems this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers have looked like the diametric opposite of their former free-swinging selves, as they've averaged five walks per game on offense. That's allowed them to have a .310 team OBP despite a dismal .203 BA. Michael Young and Mark Teixeira will get on track at some point, as hitting numbers have a tendency to balance out over the course of a season. With the Rangers' newfound patience at the plate, they'll score runs in bunches once the hits start coming. And the hitters started to break out of the doldrums last night, which is ominous for a struggling Schilling.
NBA (108 - 91)
Suns (-5) at Lakers: The Suns have lost three straight ATS, but they're still 7-3 SU in their last ten games and 5-5 ATS. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games. To bet on the Lakers at this point, you have to be some kind of a masochist.
Rockets (-2.5) at Kings: The Rockets are coming into Sacramento after three straight losses, but they're still 18-10 ATS in the game following a loss. Also, they're 22-15 ATS on the road, and they've gone 5-3 ATS as 1-to-2.5 point favorites. Moreover, the Rockets are 12-5 ATS on the road against an under-.500 opponent. On the other hand, the Kings are 2-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5 point underdogs, and they're only 16-20-1 ATS at home.