Yesterday:
NBA: 2 -2; MLB: 3 - 0
NBA (102 - 84)
Raptors (+4.5) at Magic: The Raptors covered the spread in a three-point loss to the Heat last night, and that SU loss actually puts them in a great situation, as they're 22-10 ATS after losing their previous game. And even though the Raptors played last night, they're 9-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. The Raptors are riding a four-game ATS winning streak, and they've covered the spread in six of their last seven games. Moreover, they're 21-16 ATS on the road, and they've won their last six meetings with the Magic ATS. Meanwhile, the Magic are just 16-20-1 ATS at home, and they've lost two of their last three games SU and ATS against bad competition (lost at Boston, beat Indiana at home, and lost to the Timberwolves at home). The Magic are playing on two days' rest, but in what could be a statistical oddity, they're 4-9-1 ATS in those situations. Also, the Magic are 3-11 ATS when favored by 3 to 5.5 points. Honestly, I didn't want to recommend this game due to the Raptors playing two nights in a row, but after seeing all of these stats, it's impossible to lay off the game.
Warriors at Rockets (-7) - Over 205: The Rockets are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Even though they're 15-21-1 ATS at home, they lost their previous game to the Jazz, and they're 18-8 ATS following a loss. On the other hand, since a torrid 6-0 ATS stretch, the Warriors have lost two of their last three games ATS. Their defense has been awful in the last five games, as they've allowed opponents a 52.1 FG%. That's good for the over bet, especially since the Warriors offense has been good over this time period (48.4 FG%). The Warriors have scored 110+ points in four of their last five games (they missed this plateau against the Spurs' stalwart defense, which held the Warriors to 89 points). And the Warriors have allowed 115+ points in all five of those games. Not surprisingly, the total has gone over in each contest. Although the Rockets have played lower-scoring games lately, these have come against teams that were concentrating on defense (Jazz, Clippers, Pistons, and Pacers). In recent games against faster-paced teams (Lakers, Bucks, and Raptors), the Rockets scored 100+ points. Also, the total has gone over in the last three meetings between the Rockets and Warriors.
Jazz (-7) at Blazers: The Jazz appear to have gotten back on track with an 86-83 win at Houston on Sunday. That was their first ATS win in their last 11 games, but they've now won four of their last five SU. Meanwhile, the Blazers have lost four straight games (1-3 ATS), and they'll be playing without Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Both are likely out for the rest of the year.
Lakers at Clippers (-2.5): Counting last night's loss to the Nuggets, the Lakers are now 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games. On the other hand, their basketball neighbors, the Clippers, are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games, and they're 9-2 ATS in their last 11. Also, the Clippers last played on Saturday night, while the Lakers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
MLB (6 - 4.2)
Marlins (Sanchez) -150 at Nationals (Chico): Don't call the early-season success of the Marlins a surprise, as their young pitching and hitting came together in the 2nd half of 2006. Today, second-year starter Anibal Sanchez takes the mound for Florida. Sanchez was extremely effective against the Nationals in 2006, limiting Ryan Zimmerman to only two hits in nine ABs and not allowing a single home run to anyone on the team. Matt Chico gets the unpleasant task of making his major-league debut today for the Nationals against a Marlins' team that seems to have Washington's number. Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-7, and Hanley Ramirez has gone 4-for-9 in the first two games against the the hapless Nationals.
Red Sox (Beckett) -160 at Royals (Perez): The Red Sox look to rebound from a poor first outing against the Royals Monday afternoon in which starter Curt Schilling lasted a mere 4 innings, his shortest start in 10 years. Luckily for the Sox, they'll be rolling out number-two starter Josh Beckett today. The Royals have been awful against Beckett, with Emil Brown claiming bragging rights as the only player from Kansas City to ever hit a home run off him. Royals' starter Odalis Perez, making his debut for KC today, has an enormous challenge on his hands, as he'll be facing big right-handed bats like Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez and J.D. Drew. If Perez gets knocked out of the game early, the Red Sox could find themselves taking batting practice off the miserable Royals' bullpen.
Athletics (Harden) -120 at Mariners (Batista): The A's need to get their offense rolling today as they try to avoid getting swept by their division rival, the Seattle Mariners. After losing their first two games of the series, Rich Harden will try to provide the A's with the antidote against the sweep. Harden, who is finally healthy after missing much of 2006 due to a painful elbow injury, seems to have the Mariners figured out. Ichiro Suzuki has managed only two hits in 16 at bats against Harden, while Raul Ibanez is even worse with two hits in 18 ABs. Harden enjoyed a fantastic spring training, striking out 25 batters in 14 innings of work. The enigmatic Miguel Batista will start for the Mariners, which is good news for Eric Chavez, who is 4-for-9 against him lifetime.
Dodgers (Schmidt) -120 at Brewers (Suppan): Today's Dodgers-Brewers game features two veteran starting pitchers making debuts for their new teams. Jason Schmidt, who owns a tidy 3.24 lifetime ERA against the Brew Crew, will try to guide Los Angeles to their first victory of the year. The Dodgers will look to Russell Martin and Jeff Kent, two hitters who have enjoyed previous success against Suppan, to provide Schmidt with run support. The Brewers' hitters will likely find themselves struggling to get hits against Schmidt, who seems to always bring his A-game when pitching in Milwaukee.