Record keeping on moneylines should not be combined with record keeping on point-spread wagers because success is determined differently on these types of bets. If you properly keep records of your moneyline bets, you only need to be above 50% in order to make a profit. On the other hand, with point-spread wagers, the 10% juice is built into the line, so you have to be over 52.5% correct to make a profit. As a result, I will list my records for each sport instead of my overall record.
Also, Middlefngz will be assisting me with the baseball picks for the rest of the season, as he's more familiar with the statistical databases for accessing records on pitcher-batter matchups
Yesterday:
MLB: 3 - 4.2; College Basketball: 0 - 1
NBA (100 - 82)
Raptors (+5) at Heat: The Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games, and they've won their last three SU and ATS. Also, the Raptors defeated the Heat last Wednesday (96-83), as the Heat couldn't effectively guard against T.J. Ford's penetrating abilities (14 points, 9 assists). The Raptors' efficiency numbers have been excellent in their last five games, as they've shot a 48 FG% while allowing opponents a 41.3 FG%. Meanwhile, the Heat are just 2-4 SU in their last six games (2-3-1 ATS).
Suns (-9.5) at Grizzlies: The Suns are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They're a decent road team (20-15 ATS), and they won their last two meetings against the Grizzlies by an average margin of 16.5 points. On the other hand, the Grizzlies are just 16-20 ATS at home. Even though they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, the Suns are going to be too much to handle when the Grizzlies are missing two of their top offensive players (Mike Miller and Damon Stoudamire).
Mavs (-7) at Kings: The Kings are just 2-9 SU and ATS in their last 11 games, and they're a dismal 14-20-1 ATS at home. On the other hand, the Mavs are 20-14-2 ATS on the raod, and they've won their last four games SU against the Kings (3-1 ATS). Also, the Mavs will be looking to avenge Sunday's loss to the Suns, in which the defense looked awful. Avery Johnson's wrath should lead to a solid defensive game by the Mavs. When the Mavs are favored by 5 to 8.5 points, they're 15-5 ATS this year.
Nuggets (+3) at Lakers: The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, while the Lakers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13. Also, the Nuggets are 20-14-1 ATS on the road, compared to the Lakers' 16-19-2 ATS record at home. Moreover, the Nuggets have been great in games following a win (22-12-1 ATS), while the Lakers aren't as good in those situations (17-19-2 ATS). When these teams met in Denver two weeks ago, the Nuggets dominated in a 113-86 rout.
MLB (3 - 4.2)
Note: Here's how I keep records on baseball moneylines. When I pick the favorite and they win, I count that as one win. If the favorite loses, then the moneyline represents the amount of losses I take. For example, if I pick a -150 favorite, and that team loses, then that's 1.5 losses for me. On the other hand, if I correctly pick an underdog, then my record increases by an amount proportional to the moneyline, while an incorrect pick counts as one loss on my record (e.g., my record increases by 1.5 wins if i correctly pick a +150 underdog).
Padres (Peavy) - even at Giants (Zito): It's opening day for these two clubs, as they both had yesterday off. Barry Zito, the $126 million man, will be making his first start as a National League pitcher after spending his entire career in Oakland. Much to the dismay of Giants' pitching coach Dave Righetti, Zito has spent the off season tinkering with his bread-and-butter pitch, the curve ball. You can expect mixed results from Zito, who's not a high velocity pitcher, if he relies on different mechanics and until he feels his way around his new surroundings. The Padres send ace Jake Peavy to the mound today. Boasting an impressive 3/1 K/BB ratio against the Giants, look for Peavy to continue to frustrate a borderline-geriatric Giants' lineup.
Marlins (Olsen) -130 at Nationals (Hill): 23-year-old lefty Scott Olsen gets the ball for the Marlins today. Olsen made a grand debut in 2006, going 12-10 and striking out 166 in 180 innings. Meanwhile, Nationals' pitcher Shawn Hill has been plagued by injuries since 2004 and will be making his ninth major-league start today versus a Marlins lineup known for doing damage to Washington. Marlins' third baseman Miguel Cabrera began his 2007 campaign with a bang yesterday, going 3-4 with a homer and 3 RBIs. Look for the hitting parade to continue today as the Marlins hand the National League's worst team another loss.
Diamondbacks (Hernandez) at Rockies (Francis) -140: Arizona got their 2007 season off to a good start, winning an 8-6 thriller yesterday afternoon. Look for the Rockies to turn the tables today, as Jeff Francis takes the hill. Sporting an impressive 6-1 career record against Arizona, Francis will be facing a young lineup that'll likely become frustrated against the tall lefty. Chad Tracy has had success against Francis, so be mindful of that. The Rockies get the edge here since they'll be facing the erratic Livan Hernandez, who has struggled since joining Arizona last summer. Excuse the play on words, but Hernandez has been rocked by the Rockies time and time again, leading to a dismal 5.14 lifetime ERA and an unimpressive 6-8 career record against Colorado. Todd Helton and Garret Atkins should have an explosive day against Hernandez, providing vital run support for Francis and leading Colorado to their first win of the season.