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    Keith12322's Blogger Competition: NFC Wild Cards

    Tuesday, December 11, 2007, 02:23 PM EST [General]

    Some call it parity, i just call it bad. Regardless of where you stand on the NFC and the cluster of mediocrity that is every team outside of Dallas and Green Bay, it is impossible to deny that the Wild Card race is a very tight one. With only one division still up for grabs, that being the South, teams are aware that their only chance is to get the Wild Card, and while the heat is definitely on, there is a startling small number of huge matchups left between the Wild card candidates, which are the following: The New York Giants, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals and the New Orleans Saints. Again, while the top spot in the South is still open for the Saints, the Bucs have games left against the lowly Falcons, Niners and Panthers. As long as they take at least two of those games, which they will, they division will be theirs. So now that I have established the LEGITIMATE wild card possibilities, here is a team by team analysis of their ability and chances of getting a wild card spot. New York Giants: The Giants don't scare anybody and odds are they won't do any damage even if they reach the playoffs, but they do find themselves at 9-4, with games left against the Redskins, Bills and Patriots. The Patriots game will be a loss, book it. The Bills game could be tough, but as long the Giants beat the Redskins, who are now without Jason Campbell and Sean Taylor, they will get the top spot. No team outside of Minnesota can get to ten wins, so if they get that W in their upcoming game versus Washington, which will be played at the Meadowlands, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. Take it to the bank, the Giants are a lock. Verdict: IN Washington Redskins: This Skins are only one game behind the Vikings, but they don't stand a chance. The death of Taylor hurt as much on the field as it does off, and the loss of Campbell sealed their fate. With games against the Giants, Vikings and Cowboys, in that order, the Redskins would be fortunate to finish .500. Just a question, is it possible to remove someone from the hall of fame? If it is, Joe Gibbs has wore out his welcome in Canton. Verdict: OUT Minnesota Vikings: While this team has only started garnering attention in recent weeks, I have been a believer for quite a while. Personally, I think this team has a legitimate shot against either Green Bay or Dallas, and on a good day, even against some of the better teams in the AFC. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor make up the best running back tandem, ever. Both would be above average starters, and with the weekly progression of Tarvaris Jackson and his improving receiving core, the holes will only get bigger for the two of them. Looking at their three remaining games, I don't think a valid case could be made as to how they would lose even one of them. They already smoked the Bears back in Soldier Field, and Peterson should once again make fools out of Adam Archuletta and Danieal Manning. The Skins are as full of holes as the Bears are, and Vikings will steamroll them in their second straight home game. Their season finale, against Denver, shouldn't be too tough either, given Denver's horrendous rush defense. This team will be the second Wild Card team. Verdict: IN Detroit Lions: Jon Kitna's 10 win prediction and Roy Williams's trash talks have once again proved worthless. The Lions are done. They have the Chargers and Packers left on their schedule, and unless the Packers rest their starters, those will amount to two losses. Both games are also on the road, increasing the improbability of Detroit victories. Could they salvage a win against the Chiefs in week 16? Perhaps, but the Lions run of futility is still going strong. Verdict: OUT. Arizona Cardinals: Given the fact that I have the Vikings winning at least two of their three remaining games, the Cardinals will have to win out to even have a chance. The good news is that with games left against the Falcons, Rams and Saints, their remaining schedule is among the easiest in the league. The bad news is that the Cardinals are simply not that good of a team. Their defense is dinged up and so are their receivers. I don't see them winning out, just because they are the Cardinals and the Cardinals simply don't win out. That being said, they might end up at .500, not a bad start for Wisenhunt and his young Cardinals. Verdict: OUT New Orleans Saints: Not to gloat, but I saw this coming before the season even started(same goes for the Niners, this year's version of the '06 Dolphins). As crazy as it sounds, I think that losing Bush for the season is not all that bad. If the Saints let their runners run and let their receivers receive, like they did last night, they have a better chance of winning than when they have Bush doing his hybrid thing. Hopefully Sean Payton will see that and do what I proposed a while ago, convert him into a wide receiver and bring in a real running back to split time with their other legit tailback, "the Deuce(Is there a better name in all of football, of course aside from Craphonso Thorpe)." Anyhow, the Saints are in a similar position as the Cardinals in terms of catching the Vikings. The Saints have three tough games left, a home game against the Cardinals, another home game against the Eagles and then a road date in Chicago, a matchup of the two most disappointing teams in all of football. Can they win out? If everything goes right, but we are talking about the Saints here. The Saints will end up 8-8, a game or two behind the Vikings. Verdict: OUT So there you go. The Wild Card teams will be the Giants and the Vikings. Bonus Picks: The Giants, who will end up with the sixth seed, will get ousted in the first round by the Seahawks. The Vikings will squeak by the Bucs. The Vikings will lose to Dallas, but it will be a helluva game.
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    Exposing the Cover Two.

    Saturday, December 8, 2007, 10:11 PM EST [General]

    Follwing the success the Tampa Bay Buccaneers exhibited in their Super Bowl season, the Cover Two style defense started gaining popularity and spread like wildfire. Whether it was the traditional Cover Two or the Tampa Two or whatever variation of this disgusting defense that was in existence, most teams employed it in one way, shape or form. The idea is to divide the field into portions, with each player aside from the four down linemen assigned one portion. The safeties play a huge part here as they are almost always the only players that end up covering deep routes, and with inadequate safety play, the defense falls apart. While all of the variations center on preventing the big play and forcing turnovers, none have become so dependant on turnovers as the particular style employed by my favorite team, the Chicago Bears. The Bears variation is pretty close to the Tampa Two, and while Lovie Smith has said it is in fact different, i have yet to see why. The Bears spread their safeties a bit wider apart than the traditional Cover Two dictates, but no more than that of the Tampa Two. Anyhow, the idea of relying on the other team to make mistakes really irks me. I am a believer in making things happen and only relying on things that you can make happen.

    Last year the Bears were among the league leaders in takeaways. This year, although not nearly as productive in the takeaway deprtment, they still rank a respectabl 12th with 24. So why are the Bears so bad this year? The answer is because even though you can use takeways to limit the opposition's chances at scoring, what counts is a) what you do when you are not getting takeaways and b) when you do get takeaways, can your offense capitalize. Last year, the Bears were a defense that at times did struggle, but for the most part was of the lockdown variety. Also, the Bears were the highest scoring team in the NFC last season, thanks largely in part to the extra 2+ possesions per game the defense gave them. The is year, the Bears not only can stop anybody, but they cant score either. A cover two defense is all fine and dandy when the turnovers amount to something, but the defense is exposed as a fraud when the offense cant score or the defense has no skill other than taking away the ball.

    In fairness, the Bears have struggled largely thanks to a number of injuries on defense, but the Bears, if not for Jerry Angelo and Smith's offseason arrogance, could have been in a position to succeed despite those injuries. Lovie allowed Todd Johnson to leave and traded away Chris Harris to make room for his lapdog Adam Archuletta, who should have been out of the league two years ago. He also promoted Daniel Manning, who despite his superb speed has regressed badly this year, probably because of his lack of football IQ. The Bears allowed Ian Scott and Alfonso Boone to leave as well and signed a big time cover two guy, Darwin Walker, to replace them. Smith also shafted Alex Brown by giving his job to Mark Anderson, who desoite his gaudy rookie numbers should have been used as a specialist once again.

    The cover two defense and the Lovie Smith's inability to adapt, whether it be in-season or in-game, have brought upon the downfall of the Bears. The latter probably is the bigger culprit, but i just cant help but look at the Cover Two as a problem. One of the biggest Cover Two guys in existence, Monte Kiffin, has already come to grips with the problems of the Cover Two and from what i heard has said that it needs to be readily evolved and mixed in with less reguarity thanks to the extensive knowledge coaches have about it and the holes within it.

    While this blog isn't as descriptive and thorough as i would like it to be, i have run out of time. please leave comments regarding your comments on the cover two and whether you look at it the same way i do.

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    Who is Todd Collins and How Did he Beat the Bears?

    Thursday, December 6, 2007, 10:38 PM EST [General]

    When Jason Campbell left the game, the Bears chances at leaving the capitol with a W skyrocketed, or so i thought. Tod Collins, without the aid of a running game, put on his Tom Brady mask and had what was said to be his his best game of the century. Has it gotten to this point for the Bears? The list of the players that have taken the Bear defense out to the woodshed is chuck full of no names, has-beens and never will-be's. Andre Hall, Derrick Ward, Eli Manning, Justin Fargas, Maurice Morris, the list goes on... and on... and on. There are so many holes on this team and i have no faith in Lovie Smith and Jerry Angelo and their talent evaluation methods. This past offseason, Lovie was given a type of freedom that no Bears coach in recent memory has ever had. Angelo brought in Adam Archuletta based solely on Lovie's word, disregarding the fact that the same Redskins that whooped the Bears tonight benched him despite his fat contract. Lovie is a good coach as far as gameplanning goes, but his talent evaluation and in-game coaching is just horrendous. Some may blame him for the offensive line's discipline issues and all the false starts, but i think that notion is downright laughable. The entire offensive line has extensive experience in the league and should never string together six penalties in one drive. Griese was also guilty for a delay of game or two. On the other side of the ball there are also a number of issues that must be addressed in the offseason. They have a solid defensive line, but if Tommie Harris isn't resigned, the Bears would be down their best defensive player. Brian Urlacher is hurt and getting old and Hunter Hillenmeyer is simply decent. I would suggest moving Lance Briggs to the middle, but odds are Lovie doesn't have the stones to do it. The Bears are strong at the CB position, but i would suggest cutting Ricky Manning lose and moving Trumane McBride into the nickle package. Manning was solid D-back in Carolina but at this point is mediocre at best. The real problem is the safeties. Archuletta wont be back next year, so there reallly is no reason to talk about him. Mike Brown will probably be back, but hopefully the Bears keep him on as a back up. He can't be trusted to stay healthy, and hopefully Angelo will go out and get somebody. Danieal Manning improved throughout last season, but he has regressed quite a bit this year. I cant remember the last time he has made a play and he takes way to many bad angles to ballcarriers. One player that wont be catching flack is Robbie Gould, but i say good riddance. The guy is accurate from 49 yards in, but he has no power and Lovie is adamnant about not using him past 50 yards. But his field goals are not the problem, rather the problem is his kickoffs. He has had a number of kickoffs go out of bounds this year and may not have had a kickoff go for a touchback all season long. While i have no faith in the management to put together a strong draft class, i hope they address their offensive line woes in the first round. There are a number of really good lineman coming out next year and i would love to see the Bears cash in. I have my fingers crossed, but hopefully Angelo trades up for Jake Long, who is said to be just as good or better than Joe Thomas. If the Bears pick up two O-lineman, a safety and a decent QB, they should be fine, but I, and most Bears fans for that matter, know that that is wishful thinking. PS: TD's scored aginst the Bears were by Todd Collins, Mike Sellers, Ladell Betts and ___ Yodler????
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    NBA All Underrated Team

    Sunday, November 25, 2007, 01:28 PM EST [General]

    First Team: PG- T.J. Ford/Jose Calderon: Its kinda hard to mention one without the other. Toronto has two of the most high-energy and efficient point guards in the entire league. Both aren't great shooters, but can fill it up on occasion. They are excellent free throw shooters and both are in the top twelve in Asstist/PG. SG- Josh Howard: Howard is the only Sg in the top ten in scoring with a FG% above 50. The next best, Paul Pierce, is 33 percentage points behind. His defense, efficiency and athleticism make him one of the tougher defensive assignments in the league. SF- Caron Butler: Another efficient offensive machine. He logs a ton of minutes and doesn't take all that many shots, yet he puts up 22 per. Steals are a very misleading defensive stat, but he still grabs 2+ per and grabs 7 boards per as well. PF- Al Jefferson: Although the Celtics are doing great, i cant help but wonder if it ws worth getting rid of Jefferson. This kid is a beast. He's only 22 and is already putting up All Star numbers. He and Carolos Boozer, another vastly underrated player, are going to alternate as starters in the All Star game for the next decade. C- Chris Kaman: His goofy face and ADD make him easy to disregard and poke fun at, but he has developed into a really strong center. When his head is in the game, which it is a lot more often than not, he is a monster on the glass. When Elton Brand returns, his numbers might suffer a bit, or with less of the responsibility in the blocks, they might improve. Second Team: PG- Raymond Felton: he's turning into a really solid player, but his shooting touch really needs some work. SG- Marvin Williams: He still isn't scoring enough points, but it's not from a lack of skill or work. He just needs to start to shoot a little more. His FG% warrants a few more ATT/pg. SF- Rashard Lewis: The Magic were laughed at when they gave him a massive extension in the offseason, but he has been excellent. There really is nothing he doesn't do at a high level. PF- Chris Wilcox: He is more of an athlete than basketball player, but is still a hell of a force on the court. Nobody goes at it harder than him. C- Tyson Chandler: He still doesnt have any offenive game, but he is a double-double machine that plays some decent defense as well.
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    A Response To Jay Walking

    Thursday, November 22, 2007, 09:15 PM EST [General]

    In his article Jay Walking, Tracy Ringolsby ripped into the Blue Jays, and more specifically, their manager JP Riccardi. No one can deny that the Blue Jays have been playing third fiddle to the Yankees and Red Sox for the last decade plus, put to put the blame on Riccardi for a few bad draft picks and his "small" payroll is unfair. Althoough Ringolsby didn't mention it, its hard to get around the fact that the Jays play in Toronto, and given the options most top tier free agents get, they probably dont light up at the idea of moving to Toronto. Also, if you take a look at Toronto's roster, it happens to be pretty good. They have a number of strong power hitters, a strong rotation and a solid back of the bullpen. Well, if they have so many good players, why do they struggle? Well, when projected starters like Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus underperform and suffer from injuries, teams usually find themselves in deep holes. Wells, fresh off a huge extension, played like garbage. He was moved up and down the order, but nothing really shook him out of his funk. Overbay, a solid slugger and a strong on base guy, couldnt shake off his injuries and never got on a roll. Troy Glaus posted really good numbers in his 385 Ab's, but missed too many games. Alex RIos, Frank Thomas and Aaron Hill all did their best to make up for their gimpy teammates, but in the end they finished well behind Boston and New York. As far as their pitching goes, Jays fans have real reason for optimism. Halladay was his usual self and the same goes for Burnett, although he missed his usual ten games or so. But starters Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch al had really impressive seasons. McGowan, in his first "full" season, pitched well very well in 27 starts. He struck out almost a batter per inning and ended the year with a 4.08 ERA and only 14 HR's allowed. Marcum posted similar numbers overall, but he struck out 20 less batters and gave up 27 HR's. Still his WHIP and BAA were very respectable. The main difference between Marcum and McGowan was that McGowan improved in the second half, while Marcum regressed quite a bit. Litsch, the youngest of the trio at only 22 years of age, pitched brilliantly in his 20 starts. Hes more of a finesse pitcher and seems to already have a firm grasp on how to pitch, as opposed to young fireballers who really just try to throw by batters. I see no reason why this staff shouldnt be better than the one the Yankees will trot out next year, barring injuries of course. The third component of the Jays, their pen, also looks to be strong. Although they lost Ryan early on in the year, they saw just how good Jeremy Accardo is. Accardo got much, much better as the season rolled on, showing that he learned from experience and should be really good next year. If Ryan returns to form, that should be a 1-2 punch just a shade behind that of Papelbon and Okajima. Scott Downs and Casey Janssen were also brilliant last year. If their starters can get to the sixth or seventh with the lead, there is no better bullpen in the game more capable at bringing home a W. All in all, i dont think the Blue Jays are in as much trouble as Ringolsby does. Again, barring injury, i don't see why they cant compete with the Yankees and Red Sox for the division title or with intraleague foes for the wild card.
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