The NL Central is far and away the biggest surprise in all of baseball. Some will say the Devil Rays, but it's not like nobody saw it coming. They were the pre-season darlings of Baseball Prospectus, whose article was featured in the pre-season edition of Sports Illustrated. Nobody, and I mean nobody, expected that at the all star break, the three teams with the best records in the NL would reside in the Central Division. (Like in the NFL, the West has disappointed immensely, but that's neither here nor there.) Those three teams, the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals, are the subjects of this blog and will be addressed in team-by-team format.

The St. Louis Cardinals-
This team is a little bit strange. They win, and do it pretty often, but how is unclear. They don't score all that many runs, tied for twelfth in all of baseball (with the equally surprising Tigers) in runs scored with 415. They aren't all that good preventing at runs either, ranking fifteenth in the league with 339 runs allowed. If you haven't figured it out yet, their run differential is merely +16.

Offense- Their offense is built around the best hitter on the planet, but as good as he is, he is only one man. His supporting cast of Troy Glaus, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel is nice, but the latter two have never maintained success over a full season, and the former is just a shell of his former self. Ludwick's underlying stats show that he is a good player, but although his power is real, his average is probably going to drop and he strikes out once every four at bats. Ankiel is similar in the way that his power is very real, but he probably won't hit any higher than .270 or get on base at a higher clip than .340. Troy Glaus's skill set is a very known one. He has some power left, walks a lot and strikes out a bit more often, and that's about it. All three are decent, but not good enough to be your second, third and fourth best hitters. Yadier Molina will hit for average, make consistent contact and take some walks, but hits for no power. No other offensive players warrant a mention.

Starting pitching- Their pitching staff, kind of like their offense, is made up of reclamation projects and rejects, but with Dave Duncan at the helm, have done quite well. Wainwright is undoubtedly been their best starter and is the only starter to not fit into the above criteria. His peripherals point to a slight regression, but outside of his BABIP, he hasn't been overly lucky. Kyle Lohse, who foolishly rejected a real juicy deal from Philadelphia, has made the most of his time in St. Louis with Dave Duncan. He, like Wainwright, has been a bit lucky in the BABIP department, but make no mistake about it, he is a better pitcher this season. He has reduced his fly ball rate drastically and has become a successful ground ball pitcher. Braden looper appears to be exactly what he has been this year, a decent back of the rotation starter who's ERA will be in the mid four's. Todd Wellemyer, another Duncan re-invention, is nothing more than your typical number four or five starter. His current ERA is respectable, but it will regress as more balls in play fall for hits, and they will. In fact, his regression has already begun. Since his outstanding May(2.19 ERA), he has been atrocious, posting a 5.02 ERA in June and a 10.8 ERA in July. Joel Piniero, their fifth starter, has no business being a starter for a contending team. He should be nothing more than an insurance policy for your staff or a long man in the pen.

Bullpen- Their bullpen, already rocked by the ineffectiveness of former stud closer Jason Isringhausen, is merely average. Ryan Franklin has been all right, but he is due to give up a few more home runs and a lot more hits. He doesn't have closer stuff and his weak 6.1 k/9 shows it. Kyle McLellan is their best reliever and I fully expect him to become their closer when Franklin loses the job, which he will, or at least should. Chris Perez has good stuff and is their third or fourth best pen arm, but he is way too wild and shouldn't be used in high leverage situations just yet.
Overall, the Cardinals have a nice team with a bunch of solid players and a few good ones, but not enough really good ones. This team may hang in ther due to the same luck that has gotten them this far, but I doubt it and expect them to fall out of the running over the next month or so.

The Milwaukee Brewers-
The Brewers, just like the Cardinals, don't have overly impressive numbers. They rank fifteenth in runs cored and fourteenth in runs allowed. Their run differential is only +11. A plus for them is that they have played a slightly tougher schedule, but with that being said, they still have outperformed their Pythagorean by four games. Obviously, what makes this team an immediate contender is the acquisition of CC Sabathia. But what should worry Brewer's fans is that A) Ben Sheets can fall apart at any given time and B) Without Sabathia the team was merely mediocre when considering run differential, a very telling stat,

Offense- Everybody knows about the offensive studs on this team, but not enough people are aware of just how top heavy the unit is. Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and Prince Fielder are all huge talents and make up a fearsome trio, and JJ Hardy can get hot for stretches, but nobody else on the team is a viable offensive weapon. Weeks will hit some home runs and steal some bases, but not even his great walk rate can make up for his terrible average, which is very, very real. He strikes out way too much and makes too little solid contact to be a leadoff hitter. I imagine his .134 line drive rate ranks among the worst in the league among regulars; it's downright embarrassing. But Weeks isn't the only Brewer among the worst when it comes to hitting line drives. Mike Cameron, who has managed to strikeout more than once per game, is barely better than Weeks and has a .151 line drive rate which is the primary reason for his awful .227 average. Jason Kendall gives his team a decent average and takes his walks, but he hits for almost no power and is not the defender he once was. Bill Hall, Russell Branyon, Craig Counsell and Gabe Kapler are the others with significant AB totals, and to they stink would be an extreme understatement.

Starting Pitching- Before the very recent acquisition of CC Sabathia, their rotation, featuring ace Ben Sheets and youngster Manny Parr, was just as top heavy as the offense. Ben Sheets is an ace and Manny Parra looks like a future ace, but Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Carlos Villenueva/Seth McClung have been awful and have no business being in a major league rotation. None have an ERA lower tyhan 4.18, and three own ERA's 4.71 or higher. The Brewers obviously suffered a huge setback when they lost Yovanni Gallardo, but it's pretty safe to say that if they still had Gallardo they would not have gone after Sabathia, rather after a better back of the rotation starter like Gil Meche, AJ Burnett or Randy Wolf. But now that they have Sabathia, they are on front of the rotation ace up on the Chicago Cubs. Manny Parra and Ryan Dempster, at least for this season, are a push. Carlos Zambrano is as good as either Sheets or Sabathia, but no other pitcher on the Cubs' staff ranks with either 1A or 1B of the Brewers. The Brewers are now in unknown territory. They have a relatively injury prone ace.

Bullpen- The soft underbelly of this team is the bullpen, and that can not be debated. This unit has blown leads that nobody could have dreamed would be blown, and have done it in magnificent fashion. Soloman Torres, their best bullpen arm, is uncharacteristically having a strong first half and may end up having a good season, but if he is your closer, you are in big trouble. Brian Shouse and Mitch Stetter have pitched well, but the rest of their pen, Mota, Riske and Gagne, is awful. Stetter, who gives up way too many fly balls when you consider that he plays in Miller pArk, is due for some really rough outings. His low home run rate is not sustainable. Shouse is better and gives up very few fly balls, but his BABIP is unusually low and he is also due to regress a bit. That being said, Shouse should be somewhat reliable down the stretch. Still, the Brewers currently have two reliable relievers, and until they get more, their will be many tough plane rides home for this team.

The Chicago Cubs-
As you can tell from my name, I am clearly a Cubs fan, but make no mistake about it, I am objective a Cubs fan as you will find and I think I have been fair to both teams in my assessments, and the same goes for the coming one. Statistically, this team is the cream of the crop in the NL. They rank second in all of baseball in runs scored, ninth in runs allowed and first in run differential, fourteen runs higher than the next best team, their AL counterparts from the South Side.

Offense- This team is pretty stacked offensively. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mark Derosa(yes, Mark Derosa) are among the best at their positions. The first four need no introduction, but DeRosa doesn't get the publicity he deserves. He has the fifth highest OPS among all second baseman and does everything well offensively. He can also play almost all defensive positions semi-adequately. Anyhow, what makes this offense so good is that it has almost no easy outs. The five aforementioned guys are obviously very good, and Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot and the rejuvenated Jim Edmonds are very good complementary players and fill their rolls very, very well. The bench is also very deep, with pinch hitter deluxe Daryl Ward, Ronny Cedeno and Reed Johnson all very capable of doing damage. What's more is that none of the starters seem to be overly luck and should be able to maintain their current levels of production over the duration of the season. Lee's power should regress a bit, but his average should rise. Edmonds seems to have his stroke back and has pretty good peripheral stats. Soto is legitimate and always seems to be making great contact, and his numbers confirm that. Theriot has improved his batting eye and with the extra rest Piniella has given him seems to have stepped up his game. Soriano has been just outstanding when healthy and despite what Cubs fans will tell you, they are not better without him. That is absurd. This offense is stacked and shouldn't let up.

Starting Pitching- This is where the Cubs don't rate among the elite. The staff as a whole is solid and above average, but as presently constructed is likely no World Series Champion material. Carlos Zambrano is a stud, and a very good option at the front of the rotation. The problem is who fills in as the number two behind him. Ryan Dempster has performed number two, but he still doesn't feel like one. The main reasons for his improvement are his slightly improved control, solid strikeout rate and low fly ball/ high ground ball rates. He has been a bit fortunate in the BABIP department, but even with the appropriate regression his numbers would still be respectable, if and only if he can continue limiting fly balls and inducing ground balls. Lilly's overall numbers aren't great, but he has been his old self since April, when he posted a 6.46 ERA. He is a solid third starter. The loss of Rich Hill has really hampered this team. He was counted on to improve into a decent second starter but instead finds himself pitching in rookie ball. It's doubtful he makes it back up at any time this season. Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis are both fifth starter types and shouldn't be counted on to win. Jim Hendry needs to make a move to bolster the front end of the rotation. Zambrano is undoubtedly among the NL's best, but in a playoff series, Dempster and Lilly don't scare anybody. Their offense could be enough to make up for the lack of another first tier starter, but offenses aren't as powerful in the playoffs. Jim Hendry must go out and get a very strong starter, someone like Erik Bedard or Rich Harden. The minor league system isn't nearly as loaded as that of the Brewers', but Hendry needs to find a way to bring in a reliable playoff starter. Greg Maddux, Gil Meche and Randy Wolf won't cut it, and neither will Steve Trachsel.

Bullpen- This is where the Cubs have a real edge over the Cardinals and Brewers. Kerry Wood is only in his first year as a closer, but relieving seems to suit his body type well and has arguably been the NL's best closer. Carlos Marmol has hit a rough patch as of late and has given up a number of home runs, but with his extremely high fly ball percentage, that should have been expected. He was extremely lucky in the HR department last season and is not benefitting from the same fortune this year. That being said, his stuff is electric and when he keeps the ball down, he is among the best setup men in the game. Bob Howry isn't as good as he used to be but he has historically been much better in the second half and his numbers at this point are better than they were last year. He is a solid third arm out of the pen. Behind him are Neal Cotts, Michael Wuertz and Jon Lieber. Lieber is a very capable long man and serves as insurance for the rotation. Wuertz hasn't come in and locked down the opposition like he did last season, but he is walking less hitters and giving up less fly balls and home runs, so his lower k rate is easier to stomach. His BABIP is low when you consider his line drive rate, but he is a good arm out of the pen. Neal Cotts is a decent lefty who walks too many batters but is striking out more than one batter per inning and has been giving up more home runs and hits than his peripheral stats say he should. He is only going to get better.

All in all, my home team bias aside, I feel that the Cubs have the best oerall team in the division. They feature the best, most complete and established offense in the division and have a great bullpen to go with a slightly above average rotation. Milwaukee has the better pitching staff, but I don't think that will be enough to beat out the Cubs for the crown. If they acquire another bullpen arm, preferably a closer, that could change.