Well, on the heels of my Fantasy Preview, I thought I would give an entire breakdown on the teams as we head to spring training. I figure it is either this or talk about the NBA, and to be honest, I'm a little tired of the NBA right now. We're going to start with the teams in the NL and AL East, Thursday I'll have the Central and either Friday or Saturday I'll give you the West. As always, comments are welcome and I'll try to respond to them in a timely fashion, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves as well.
Atlanta Braves
Projected finishing position: Third place in the NL East
Key Additions: Mark Kotsay, Jair Jurrjens, Tom Glavine
Key Subtractions: Edgar Renteria, Andruw Jones
Player to Watch: Yunel Escobar SS
Thoughts: A full season of Mark Teixeira should help offset the loss of Andruw Jones's bat, but the fact is that this team is going to struggle to score runs. They are hoping that Mark Kotsay can be healthy and give them a stop gap in centerfield until some of their prospects are ready to contribute on the major league level.
The bottom line for the Braves is that they are operating on a tight budget and will only go as far as their pitching can carry them. With that in mind they reached back to their glory days and brought back Tom Glavine. But this is not the same Tom Glavine who left them to sign with the Mets. The last time we saw Tom Glavine he was being booed off the mound in Shea after blowing a must win game that forced the Mets out of the playoffs and completed one of the worst late season melt downs in baseball history. So which Tom Glavine will show up in Atlanta?
Baltimore Orioles
Projected finishing position: Last place in AL East
Key Additions: Adam Jones, George Sherrill
Key Subtractions: Erik Bedard, Miguel Tejada
Player to Watch: Nick Markakis/Adam Jones
Thoughts: It is going to be a long year for the Orioles and their fans. As it stands, the "ace" of the Baltimore staff is the terribly inconsistent Daniel Cabrera and there is a growing thought that they will take over the cellar spot from the Tampa Rays in the AL East. If there's one thing that Baltimore fans can take heart in it is that Peter Angelos seems to be slowly letting his baseball people do what they were hired to do. Moving Miguel Tejada should have happened a year ago, but thanks to Ed Wade's complete foolishness in Houston they were still able to get a pretty good haul for him, and while the team will miss Bedard on the mound the odds are he was not going to be around when the team was ready to compete anyway. Jones has a chance to be a stud and given what the Twins got for a far better pitcher, it was a very good job by Andy MacPhail to get two players in Jones and Sherrill who will contribute right away. MacPhail also convinced Angelos to put aside his issues with super agent Scott Boras and draft and sign Matt Wieters, a Boars client, in last year's draft. Wieters is a top catching prospect and should be in the bigs by 2009 at the latest. If MacPhail is able to move Brian Roberts to the Cubs and get back some talent for him, the rebuilding process in Baltimore might not take as long as it would if left to Angelos and some of the yes men he had running his baseball operations in the past.
Boston Red Sox
Projected finishing position: First in AL East
Key Additions: NONE
Key Subtractions: NONE
Player to Watch: Jason Varitek/Curt Schilling/Clay Bucholtz
Thoughts: Much as it pains me, a Yankee fan, to say - Boston is probably going to walk away with the AL East. Want to hear a scary thought (scary that is unless you're a Boston fan), Manny Ramirez is in his contract year. Can you picture what a highly motivated Manny Ramirez is capable of. If he shows up at Spring Training on time, in shape, and with a haircut, I might curl up in the fetal position and cry.
That said, Boston does have some issues. While I don't believe Julio Lugo and JD Drew will be the offensive black holes that they were for much of last season, I don't think they are going to be revelations either. They also had a couple of outstanding seasons from players who probably won't reach that level again (Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia), and Varitek is another year older and starting to show wear and tear. Curt Schilling will miss much of the season and that's alright, they can plug Clay Bucholtz in behind him with not too much of a dropoff, but what happens if Tim Wakefield's back acts up as it has the last two years? What if Jon Lester misses time? My point, for those of you wondering if I had one, is that there isn't much behind these guys who can come in and help out right away.
Florida Marlins:
Projected finishing position: Last in NL East
Key Additions: Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller
Key Subtractions: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Olivo
Player to Watch: Hanley Ramirez
Thoughts: Well the one thing Marlin fans can take heart in is that they have no other players to trade. All you really need to know about where the Marlins are going this season is that Josh Willingham is penciled in as their cleanup hitter. They have two legitimate offensive players in Uggla and Ramirez, but the problem for both of them will be that with no one behind them, there is no reason for pitchers to give either of those two guys anything to swing at. In addition, the pick up of Maybin means that Ramirez, best suited defensively for the outfield, will remain at short stop for the near future. The "ace" of their rotation is Scott Olsen who has to grow up before he can be counted on to step up. But on the plus side, I hear they are inching closer to a stadium deal.
New York Mets:
Projected finishing position: First in NL East
Key Additions: Ryan Church, Brian Schnieder, Some guy named Johan
Key Subtractions: Shawn Green, Tom Glavine, Paul LoDuca
Player to Watch: Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Ryan Church
Thoughts: The Mets got the steal of the winter in getting Johan Santana for nothing of consequence. And with Santana much of the sour taste left in the mouths of Met fans from last year's collapse has been washed away. I fully expect them to storm through the NL East and go to the World Series (where they will face Detroit by the way) but there are some things that could derail their train long before it gets to a parade in New York's Canyon of Heroes.
The Mets have no depth, none, for either their position players or pitchers. Mike Pelfrey will be the first guy to get the call if a pitcher goes down, but after that there's nothing, and by nothing I mean Met fans will long for the days of Jose Lima and Jorge Sosa. To give you an idea of how bad it is, the Mets signed Tony Armas Jr. When you are signing players who were released by the Pirates it is a sign of trouble, especially when you have two pitchers, Martinez and Hernandez, who you can count on missing a month during the season. Met fans just have to hope it isn't the same month. Omar Minaya is also taking a risk in the outfield where he is hoping that Ryan Church proves he can hit left handed pitching and that Moises Alou can stay healthy for at least 100 games this year. An offensive bounce back from Carlos Delgado would be nice too.
New York Yankees
Projected finishing position: Second in AL East (Wild Card Team)
Key Additions: Joe Girardi, Dave Eiland (pitching coach)
Key Subtractions: Joe Torre
Player to Watch: The Starters
Thoughts: Since the Yankees signed Jason Giambi after the 2001 season to replace Tino Martinez here is a list of players who have manned first base: Jason Giambi, Andy Phillips, Doug Mientkiewicz, Josh Phelps, Shelley Duncan, Miguel Cairo, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Tino Martinez, Gary Sheffield, Nick Johnson, Johnny Damon, Wilson Betemit. Sadly, nothing has changed this year. When players report to Tampa this week the Yankees will be auditioning Giambi, Shelley Duncan, Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jason Lane, Nick Green, Juan Miranda, Eric Duncan, and pretty much anyone else they can find to see if they can find someone to play the position on an everyday level. Giambi, though the most likely to win the job, is also no one's favorite choice because his glove is, much like the little soaps people keep in their guest bathrooms, 99% decorative. My opinion, I think at some point during the spring the Yankees and nationals will swing a deal and Nick Johnson will head back to the Bronx. I'll touch more on why I believe this during the section on the Nationals since really there is nothing much to talk about with that team anyway.
As for the pitching, question marks abound. How will Andy deal with the distractions of the whole Roger Clemens mess? He'll be fine. Will Mike Mussina pitch better this year than last year? I have my reservations. Will Wang's postseason performance and subsequent arbitration loss distract him this season? He doesn't strike me as the type to get distracted so I think we can count on his 19 wins again. Will Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy make Brian Cashman look like a genius for hanging onto them or will they fall flat? Ok, this is a little more complicated. First of all I think if we're going to compare Hughes and Kennedy to Johan Santana that's a little unfair. I do think that the promotion of Dave Eiland to pitching coach from the minor leagues was a smart move. Eiland has worked with all of these young guys and knows their tendencies and how to fix them when they're going wrong. Joba Chamberlain will start the season in the pen to manage his innings, but should be in the rotation by June or July (possibly in place of Mussina if he struggles early) and the Yankees have a ton of other highly thought of young pitchers backing up the starters. Look, a prospect is great to have, but only if he develops into a quality major leaguer. That said, as a Yankee fan I'm happier with the idea of Al Horne and Joba Chamberlain coming to help than the days of trotting out Tim Redding and Scott Erickson.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected finishing position: Second in NL East (Wild Card Team)
Key Additions: Brad Lidge, Pedro Feliz
Key Subtractions: Aaron Rowand
Player to Watch: Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell, Brad Lidge, Cole Hamels
Thoughts: Between their ballpark and their questionable pitching staff, The Phiting Phils will have to slug their way into the playoffs. With Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, and Pedro Feliz that shouldn't be a problem. Say what you will about Feliz's shortcomings, the guy hit for power in a pitchers' park in San Francisco in a far less conducive lineup. For the Phillies he'll likely hit behind Burrell and should send a lot of balls home with fans. I don't think the Phillies will miss Aaron Rowand all that much, Shane Victorino is a very good player and I believe that Rowand's body is going to start breaking down on him after all the punishment he has put it through over the years.
From a pitching standpoint, much depends on the health and progression of Cole Hamels and whether Brad Lidge can regain the form he had prior to getting smacked around by the White Sox in the 2005 World Series. If he can't, make no mistake, he'll hear about it from the Philly faithful. Equally important will be how Brett Myers adjusts to going back into the rotation.
Tampa Rays
Projected finishing position: Fourth in AL East
Key Additions: Matt Garza
Key Subtractions: Delmon Young, Elijiah Dukes
Player to Watch: Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria
Thoughts: The Rays dropped the Devil from their name and came to the realization that all the young outfielders in the world won't help you win a title if you don't have the pitching. With Garza, Kazmir, James Shields, the Rays have a young trio who should be good for a very long time. Of course, with the Rays the question will be whether or not they can keep Kazmir under contract. Even so, they have done a good job of drafting impact players. First round pick David Price may make an appearance as early as this season. The unfortunate fact for the Rays and Blue Jays is that in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox they just don't have the financial ability to compete over the course of a full season.
Offensively, the Rays are once again counting on their All-Star Carl Crawford, one of the most underappreciated players in the game. Beyond him the team is going hope that Carlos Pena's rebirth last season was the start of something big and not just a one year wonder.
Toronto Blue Jays
Projected finishing position: Third in AL East
Key Additions: Scott Rolen, David Eckstein
Key Subtractions: Troy Glaus
Player to Watch: Vernon Wells
Thoughts: As I mentioned above, the Jays and Rays are saddled with an impossible task. To compete for a playoff spot they have to have everything break their way. That means they need the Yankees and Red Sox to fall apart and they have to remain injury free. Asking a team with AJ Burnett, Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin, Scott Rolen and Frank Thomas to stay healthy is a lot.
I'm not a huge Eckstein fan, and think the Jays would have been fine keeping John McDonald there, but he wasn't a huge investment and may help bring some leadership to the clubhouse. I will be curious to see how Scott Rolen, who has shown himself to be a somewhat sensitive player, handles the Toronto management team of John Gibbons and JP Riccardi, two men who have never shied from throwing their players under the bus when things go badly. Aside from staying healthy, this team needs Vernon Wells to be the player he was prior to getting his big payday. There's some thought that he wilted under the pressure of living up to that contract, well that pressure isn't going anywhere. If the team gets off to a bad start, look for teams to come calling for Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, and AJ Burnett (who can opt out of his contract after this season).
Washington Nationals:
Projected finishing position: Fourth in NL East
Key Additions: Paul Lo Duca, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes
Key Subtractions: Ryan Church
Player to Watch: Chad Cordero, Nick Johnson, Dmitri Young
Thoughts: As the Nationals move into their new digs GM Jim Bowden has assembled an "eclectic" group of players to join the parade. Dukes and Milledge both come to the Nationals with plenty of baggage and Bowden and manager Manny Acta will be looking for the few veterans on the team to get them in line. Incidentally, this brings me back to my point about Nick Johnson. Bowden has conceded he can't keep both Dmitri Young and Johnson on the roster this year, given that Young has battled his own demons in the past, Bowden and Acta might want to keep him around as a mentor of sorts for Dukes and Milledge.
On the field, the Nationals have lots of talented players and a ball park that should be a lot more willing to give up the long ball than RFK. Given a full season of at bats, Wily Mo Pena should hit the way Theo Epstein hoped he would when he traded Bronson Arroyo for him. Ryan Zimmerman is the face of the franchise and if he played anywhere other than Washington would be on par with David Wright in terms of national exposure and recognition. The downside to the new ball park will be that the Nationals' pitchers will not have the safety net that RFK's dimensions provided. The Nationals are essentially doing what the Rays did before them. They have assembled a young group of talented position players and now have the daunting task of developing the pitching to go with it. If Bowden would lower his asking price on closer Chad Cordero that would go a long way towards helping in the process.
More to come...