I held off on inducting yesterday's Sports Bash on ESPN Radio because I wasn't sure if I really had heard what I had heard. Alas, I couldn't find any clips or criticisms of this segment (albeit I didn't look hard). Seeing as such, if I heard the hosts incorrectly, leave a comment saying as much, and I'll retract this criticism.
The offender in this instance is Ryan Ryzilo. He started talking about statistical analysis, and had already come in with a negative bias toward it. He went on to talk about a bad loss suffered by a team, and whether there was any carryover toward the next game. Here's where I got lost. It seemed to me that he suggested that the average sabermetrician would lend credence to this carryover concept.
If he really said that, then that is possibly the dumbest critique of statistical analysis that I have ever heard. A sabermetrician would believe the exact OPPOSITE! Believers in statistical analysis view baseball games as independent events. Sure, new stats are being developed to show relationships between games (pitcher abuse points come to mind). For example, the ability for the Orioles to play baseball in game 2 of a doubleheader after losing 30-3 is really not hindered by the fact that they lost game one in horrific fashion (In fact kudos to Dave Trembley for leaving Shuey out to the slaughter knowing that game 2 was 0-0 and still winnable). I'm not suggesting that there is no psychology in sports. I am suggesting that statistical analysis does not seek to measure psychological damage. It is for this reason that Mozilo's point is way off the mark.
The average sabermetrician has heard the same criticisms bestowed upon the average wrestling fan, fantasy football player, D&D player, etc - "Mom's basement, geek, never held a bat, etc" Whether true or not for a particular individual, it would be best for critics to understand that against which they rail. Because when the geek is right, you'll have to admit that you lost a battle of wits against someone who lives in their mom's basement. Naturally, the old guard writers and commentators won't be quick to cop to that fact.
All Star